If Kim Jong-un was going to visit on any day, I am sure the Moon administration would love for it to be March 1st. The hope will be that conservative protesters against Kim’s visit will be muted because of a large dislike of the Japanese in South Korea that tends to reach a crescendo on the March 1st Independence Day which celebrates an uprising against Japanese colonial occupation back in 1919.
Is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting Seoul on March 1?
Reports of this began circulating Wednesday, citing unidentified government sources. Some had plausible details: for the leaders of the two Koreas to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement Day ― on the date and at the same location.
The uprising on March 1, 1919 ― celebrated by both Koreas ― is recorded as one of the marquee grassroots independence movements during the 1910-45 Japanese colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.
Presidential office Cheong Wa Dae on Thursday denied reports that Kim would visit Seoul on the historically symbolic day. Nevertheless, the speculation continues.
You can read more at the link, but if this visit does in fact happen I would expect there to be a large anti-Japanese buildup to try and unite most South Koreans before the Kim Jong-un visit.
Neither Seoul nor Pyongyang will pass up this opportunity to reinforce "Uri minjok kkiri" (By the Korean People Exclusively) kinship vs foreign imperialists of the past & imagined present. Pyongyang's narrative will be more restrained, as Kim Il Sung was all of 7 yrs-old in 1919. https://t.co/5XaMfniT7F
The former deputy North Korean ambassador to the United Kingdom who defected from the Kim regime had this to say about Kim Jong-un’s recent New Year’s speech:
Thae Yong-ho
Thae Yong-ho, one of the highest-ranking North Korean defectors in the South, told reporters in Seoul on Tuesday that Kim’s speech had two strategic purposes. These are to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States in regards to economic cooperation with the North, and to complicate the verification process of North Korea’s denuclearization by initiating multilateral negotiations over a formal peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean War.
“If summarized in a single sentence, Kim Jong-un’s address shows he wants to narrow down the scope of the nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea to arms reduction and push off international sanctions, while retaining the status of a nuclear-armed country,” Thae said.
According to Thae, who used to be North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, the “new path” Kim mentioned the North would take if the United States does not respond with corresponding measures to its denuclearization efforts would be a return to its old pattern of making nuclear provocations. In the speech, Kim said the North would not “make and test nuclear weapons any longer nor use and proliferate them.” Thae said “a new path” would mean reneging on this pledge.
You can read more views at the link, but the consensus seems to be building that Kim Jong-un does not plan to denuclearize and instead inspects the Trump administration to drop sanctions first.
This is all in line with the “pretend denuclearization” strategy that I believe the North Korean’s are hoping to achieve. Once sanctions are dropped the regime will be flushed with cash that it can then funnel back into its weapons programs. While doing this they can do superficial things to give the appearance of heading towards denuclearization without actually fully denuclearizing.
They will drag this out as long as possible and then by the time someone calls them out on their duplicity, they will make up reason to blame the US for the breakdown in the agreement. By the time this happens they hope to have an agreement to end the Korean War in place and US troops withdrawn from the peninsula.
The regime is betting that by this time the US and the international community will just want to treat them like Pakistan and let them keep their nukes because it isn’t worth the trouble to forcefully make them denuclearize. By keeping the nukes this then allows them over time to coerce the ROK into the confederation agreement they have been demanding to implement.
Kim Jong Un wrote a two-page new years letter to Moon Jae-in today. In it he:
– Expressed regret for not visiting Seoul in 2018 – Said wanted to meet Moon 'frequently' in 2019 – Would work w/ Moon for "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula together"https://t.co/QJqMKnMg5epic.twitter.com/8cJahPQar5
The Kim regime keeps telling the Moon administration that it is time to forget the international community and just go ahead and break sanctions:
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon (L), Transport Minister Kim Hyun-mee and other South Koreans walk toward a train ready to depart Seoul Station for North Korea to attend a groundbreaking ceremony for a joint project to modernize and reconnect roads and railways over the heavily armed inter-Korean border on Dec. 26, 2018. (Yonhap)
A senior North Korean official called on the two Koreas on Wednesday to go their own way without being swayed by outside influence in pushing for an ambitious inter-Korean project to modernize and reconnect railways and roads over their border. Kim Yun-hyok, the North’s vice railway minister, made the remarks at the project’s groundbreaking ceremony that the two Koreas jointly staged at Panmun Station in the North’s border town of Kaesong. “It is time to firm up our determination until we can hear the strong sound of a ‘reunification whistle’ and go forward without vacillation in the face of headwinds,” Kim said. “Whether to make an achievement in the North-South railway and road project depends on our people’s determination and willingness. A unified federation that Korean people want cannot be realized ever if we mind how others think,” he added.
For any North Korea apologist out there reading this, can you tell me why the Kim regime cannot afford Tamiflu, but they can afford a nuclear weapons program?:
South Korea will send the flu medicine Tamiflu to North Korea as part of an inter-Korean cooperation project on influenza prevention.
Seoul’s Unification Ministry unveiled this plan on Friday and said it will notify the North on related plans in the near future and begin working-level talks to discuss details.
Speaking to reporters after working group discussions with the U.S. held in Seoul Friday, chief nuclear envoy Lee Do-hoon said the issue of providing Tamiflu to North Korean residents has been settled.
It appears the Kim regime wants the Moon administration just to bust international sanctions without the approval of the US:
A North Korean propaganda outlet accused South Korea of what it claims to be stalled inter-Korean cooperation on Friday, saying that Seoul cannot make a single step it wants to due to pressure from Washington. The criticism comes as Seoul and Washington held their second “working group” meeting in Seoul to discuss coordination on how to deal with North Korea and its nuclear weapons program. “South Korean authorities should feel responsible for depressing the inter-Korean relations on the back of the U.S.’ maneuver for sanctions and pressure before talking about its ‘driver theory,'” the website Uriminzokkiri said, referring to President Moon Jae-in’s pledge to take the initiative by sitting in the “driver’s seat” when handling North Korean affairs. “Nothing would be resolved as long as (Seoul) continues to curry favor with the U.S., tied by its dependence on outside powers and blind following of the U.S.,” it added.
It looks like the Trump administration may be giving into ROK demands to provide humanitarian assistance to South Korea. I wish someone would ask President Moon why a country with a massive military, a nuclear weapons program, and the regime elite living lavish lifestyles needs humanitarian aid?:
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun speaks to reporters after arriving at Incheon International Airport, Thursday. Yonhap
Hopes are growing for a possible breakthrough in the stalemate in denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington, after a key U.S. official visiting South Korea referred to possible resumption of humanitarian aid to the North.
U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun said the U.S. is reviewing possible exemptions to the ban on U.S. citizens traveling to North Korea regarding humanitarian aid. He also referred to improving 70 years of hostile relations after arriving at Incheon International Airport.
“We will also review American citizens’ travel to North Korea for the purpose of facilitating the delivery of aid and ensure that monitoring in line with international standards can occur,” he said.
Improving bilateral relations is among the agreements North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump reached at their historic summit in June.
The U.S. official had refrained from making any public remarks on his previous visits. His statement this time is seen as a message from Washington to Pyongyang. Biegun stated the review on the travel ban for humanitarian aid purposes was a direction from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
#MoonJaein, just because he was elected #SouthKorea's president, obviously thinks he has a mandate to end the existence of the South Korean state. I suspect most voters don't want to surrender their freedoms to him or his buddy, #KimJongUn. https://t.co/ywVEVJuxl6
A few immutable conditions of the confederation model NK wants: 1) a co-equal governing body (which will actually favor NK’s preferences); 2) a neutral state (i.e., no US alliance/footprint); 3) reduced military on both sides (of course, NK has nukes, so they enjoy supremacy). https://t.co/hnCt3vryC7
