Category: Inter-Korean Issues

Notice the caveat that President Moon is using in the below quote:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Friday North Korea understands the need to give up its existing nuclear weapons to achieve complete denuclearization and says it will do so. The only remaining questions are when and how, he added.

“North Korea promised complete denuclearization. It said it will give up nukes for economic development. (It) promised that it has no reason whatsoever to possess nukes while facing difficulties, such as sanctions, as long as the safety of their regime is guaranteed,” Moon said in an interview with Britain’s BBC news.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans even if US troops withdraw from South Korea can say that the US or even the Japanese are still a threat to the regime and thus need their nukes.  That is a convenient caveat the Kim regime can always claim to justify keeping nuclear weapons.

This is just more of President Moon going around trying to convince western leaders that Kim Jong-un is a really a nice guy ready to reform in order to get international sanctions dropped.  I guess we will see if world leaders fall for it again.

This was a pretty blunt reaction by President Trump to South Korea’s proposal to drop sanctions on North Korea:

South Korea on Thursday walked back on a proposal to lift some of its unilateral sanctions against North Korea following U.S. President Donald Trump’s blunt retort that Seoul could “do nothing” without Washington’s approval.

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha had said on Wednesday that Seoul was considering lifting measures applied after a deadly attack in 2010 that killed 46 South Korean sailors. She cited the intent to create more diplomatic momentum for talks over North Korea’s nuclear program.

South Korean conservatives reacted with anger as well, and Kang’s ministry downplayed her comments later, saying in a statement that the government has yet to start a “full-fledged” review of sanctions, meaning no decision was imminent.

Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon told a parliamentary audit on Thursday there has been no serious consideration given to lifting the sanctions and that doing so would be hard unless North Korea acknowledges responsibility for the 2010 attack. North Korea has fiercely denied it sank the Cheonan warship.  (………..)

“They won’t do that without our approval,” Trump said of the comments. “They do nothing without our approval.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but it appears there may be some friction coming out of the White House over President Moon’s willingness to push for dropping sanctions for little to nothing in return from North Korea.

The Moon administration says providing electricity, tap water not violating sanctions. The SK-NK mil agmt states inter-Korean road must be built by the year end & ensure "customs" in the E & W corridors. It imported NK coal many times. Do they not read the UNSCRs? #sanctions https://t.co/jLbqskBRd6

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) October 10, 2018

I still can’t think of one thing the Kim regime has done to really denuclearize or even pose less of a threat to the ROK.  The North Korean artillery and troops are still forward deployed on the DMZ.  Why doesn’t the Moon administration at least demand they withdraw North Korean troops 50 kilometers north of the DMZ for example before considering dropping sanctions?:

South Korea is reviewing whether to lift its sanctions against North Korea, Seoul’s top diplomat said Wednesday, amid a summit-driven reconciliatory mood.

“A review (of the issue) is under way” in consultation with other related government agencies, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha told lawmakers during an annual parliamentary audit of the ministry. She did not elaborate.

The Ministry of Unification, which handles inter-Korean affairs, is in charge of the issue.

Kang was responding to a question about whether the government is willing to lift the sanctions, called the May 24 Measure, imposed after the North’s deadly torpedo attack on a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in 2010.

The previous conservative administration of Lee Myung-bak introduced the sanctions to prevent almost all inter-Korean ties except for humanitarian assistance.

Despite some cross-border exchanges this year, the main elements of the sanctions, such as a ban on trade and investment, remain valid, overlapping with the U.N.-led punishments of Pyongyang for its nuclear and missile programs.

Kang indicated that the government is considering the removal of the May 24 Measure largely as a symbolic step meant to help improve the Seoul-Pyongyang relations.

“It’s an important executive order. (We) have constantly reviewed it,” she pointed out. “As there are many (bilateral) sanctions overlapping the U.N. ones, it won’t necessarily mean the substantive lifting (of sanctions on the North).”  [Yonhap]

The dropping of the sanctions by the ROK just further signals to other countries that it is okay to trade with North Korea.  We already see various countries helping North Korea cheat on sanctions and South Korea is just giving them further reason why it is okay to cheat.

It looks like the Moon administration continues to work around the sanctions on the North Koreans:

South Korea will seek to launch joint on-site inspections of cross-border railways with North Korea next month as part of efforts to reconnect the railways, as called for in last week’s inter-Korean summit agreement, the presidential spokesman said Friday.

The decision was made at a meeting of the committee formed to discuss measures to carry out the Pyongyang Declaration reached in the third summit between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang last week.

The agreement calls for breaking ground before the end of the year toward reconnecting two sets of cross-border roads and railways. One of them, called the Seohae Line, runs through the western section of the border and the other, called the Donghae Line, runs through the eastern section. [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I wonder if the United Nations Command has blessed off on this yet?  Despite all the concessions the Moon administration has made to the Kim regime, I have yet to read or see any report that the North Koreans have removed one piece of artillery or troop formation away from the DMZ.

Any guesses on who will pay for all the new Olympic infrastructure in North Korea if this plan gets advanced?:

Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon wants his city to co-host the 2032 Summer Olympics with the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.

At a press conference at City Hall Friday, just hours after his return from the third inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, Park vowed to dedicate his efforts to making that dream come true.

A joint statement signed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their summit on Wednesday included an agreement to launch a joint bid to co-host the 2032 Summer Olympic Games.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

Moon has been deputized by Kim to extort Lee to give Kim. Confusing? Put differently: The tyrant has cajoled the president, an elected leader, to coerce his nation's richest man to pay up to the tyrant. https://t.co/Kx3MSYnCOi

— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) September 20, 2018

President Moon is continuing to advocate for everyone to believe in Kim Jong-un:

President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday that the United States has nothing to lose from its denuclearization talks with North Korea, as it could resume sanctions or reverse a declaration ending the Korean War if Pyongyang reneges on its pledge to denuclearize.

Moon stressed that U.S. concessions to North Korea could be reversed if Pyongyang was caught cheating on its denuclearization pledge during an interview with Fox News during his five-day visit to New York for the UN General Assembly.

“One thing stands clear,” the president said. “South Korea and the U.S. have nothing to lose from denuclearization talks [with the North]. Measures that the North is required to take are abandon already-made nuclear stockpiles; dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility; and close down nuclear testing and missile testing sites.”

These steps were equivalent to “irreversible measures,” and the North’s demands of the United States could easily be reversed if Pyongyang doesn’t follow through with its denuclearization promises, Moon argued.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

Here is what he had to say about USFK:

Moon also dismissed concerns that an end to the war could change the status of U.S. troops in South Korea and the UN Command.
“An end-of-war declaration is a political statement en route to signing a peace treaty. Until the peace treaty is signed, an armistice will be maintained,” he stressed.

Moon stressed that the issue of U.S. troops in the South had to do with the U.S.-Korea alliance, not ending the war or signing a peace treaty.

“North Korean leader Kim also agrees with this concept [of the U.S. forces in South Korea],” he said.

For the status of USFK, of course both Moon and Kim are of course going to say there will be no change.  I believe that President Moon is too smart to advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

With the end of the US-ROK alliance Moon and Kim can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on North Korean terms.

As far as denuclearization, I have been saying repeatedly, if the Kim regime wants people to see that it is serious about denuclearization then begin shipping nuclear material out of the country.  Instead the regime and President Moon want sanctions dropped for North Korea so far doing little to nothing in return.

Once sanctions are dropped it will be extremely difficult to get an international consensus to reimplement sanction if they are not denuclearizing, but at the same time behaving.  These countries will know that if they reimplement sanctions then missile and nuclear tests and other provocations will restart, so best just to leave North Korea alone.  This then allows the Kim regime to keep their nukes and have sanctions dropped.  We have been down this road before and it keeps ending at the same point and President Moon wants everyone to think the destination will be different this time.

President Moon wants everyone to believe that the Kim regime really means it this time to denuclearize:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in pushed back Tuesday against widespread skepticism about the sincerity of Kim Jong Un’s vows to give up his nuclear bombs, saying that the current round of diplomacy with North Korea is ”completely different” than the many failed deals that have frustrated past negotiators.

Moon, fresh off a dramatic summit in Pyongyang last week with Kim that saw more promises from the North Korean leader to dismantle his weapons programs, is at the U.N. General Assembly this week, meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders to explain and, to some extent, defend his efforts to bring peace to the famously hostile Korean Peninsula.

He told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in New York that it was ”only natural that we have plenty of suspicions regarding the true motivations” of Kim. It was, after all, only last year that a series of increasingly powerful North Korean weapons tests, including the nation’s sixth nuclear test explosion, and the tough reaction by Trump had many worrying about war. Some critics believe that tough sanctions and pressure, rather than engagement and concessions, stand a better chance of ridding the North of its nukes.

”It’s completely different this time around,” Moon said, speaking through an interpreter. What’s changed this time is that, unlike past efforts that collapsed when the countries tried to implement deals that had been made at the working level, this one has Trump and Kim making the decisions and then driving their lieutenants to follow through.

”This was a promise made in front of the whole world” by Trump and Kim, Moon said. ”For this reason, I believe the promise will be kept.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but if Kim Jong-un wants people to think he is serious about denuclearization he can start shipping out nuclear material from his country.  The concessions they have made so far are all easily reversible that he wants sanctions dropped and a peace treaty signed in return for.

Shipping nuclear material out of the country cannot be reversed and worthy of bigger concessions from the US.  Until the Kim regime starts doing that people are going to rightfully remain skeptical about his intentions.  As I have long been saying, the Kim regime wants “pretend denuclearization” which many people in the academic class, political class, and US adversaries want as well.

I suppose this was tweeted without intentional irony, but I could be wrong. https://t.co/jwg0SbH67u

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 23, 2018