Category: Inter-Korean Issues

Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:

Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.

Historically, vague agreements are the agreements Pyongyang loves. One the one hand, it will put an implausibly narrow interpretation on its own concessions: “What you do mean this includes uranium?,” or, “We agreed to stop missile tests, not satellite launch vehicle tests!” On the other hand, it will interpret our own concessions broadly. Here’s a useful map of its demandsto guide your understanding of what it will demand next. What’s clear is that Pyongyang will interpret the terms very differently from what Trump and his cabinet have said they would demand.  [One Free Korea]

As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.

I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement.  However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible.  Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime.  I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea.  If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.

However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route.  I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place.  As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.

This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions.  If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done.  If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.

Solid comments by all interviewed authorities. I strongly recommend reading this discussion prior to the upcoming Singapore summit. https://t.co/O7F9P734KO

— tomcoyner (@tomcoyner) June 10, 2018

President Trump is definitely working hard to sell the public on how successful the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore was in response to his critics:

U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that the world should feel “safer” because North Korea poses no nuclear threat to the world.

“Everybody can feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!” he wrote just after he returned to Washington from a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday.

“Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer,” he added.

Earlier he tweeted several times defending the summit, which critics said lacked specifics and fell short of the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.

“Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing,” Trump tweeted.

“Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!” he added.

In later postings, Trump thanked Kim for taking a “bold” step toward a “bright future” for his people and said that their Tuesday summit helps the world stay a big step away from potential nuclear catastrophe.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but you can read my analysis of the summit at this link.  What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks what the domestic North Korean media puts out about this summit.

As usual Professor B.R. Myers has correctly predicted how the Korean left led by the Moon administration will push for a confederation with North Korea by touting the economic benefits:

Image of B.R. Myers from the Korea Herald.

A few months ago I predicted the ruling Minjoo Party would begin agitating for a league or confederation before the June 13 elections. I said that in doing so it would focus on the economic benefits.

Last week I received the various parties’ campaign materials in a big envelope. (As a permanent resident I am eligible to vote in local elections.) Sure enough, the Minjoo pamphlet has a slogan in big brushstroke font at the top of one page: “Peace Equals Economy!” Underneath, next to a photo of President Moon, is the somewhat coded but still urgent pledge to “construct a permanent peace system this year.”

Of course his base knows what this means. To quote an approving headline in the nationalist-left Hankyoreh on April 29:

The plan for unification via a North-South league is hidden in the Panmunjom Declaration.

Indeed it is, and in plain sight. But the Hankyoreh was quick to drop this talk, being mindful of the need to get the Americans to Singapore in as blissful a state of ignorance as possible. This is why street demonstrations for the “peace system” have so far been rather small and sedate affairs (though with a higher proportion of young participants than conservative rallies).  [B.R. Myers]

I highly recommend reading the whole article at the link.

ROK Heads may remember that the Moon administration has been attempting to take the word “free” out of the ROK constitution in order to allow the Kim regime to maintain power in North Korea after a confederation.

Besides constitutional reform, to make this confederation possible, President Moon and Kim Jong-un need President Trump to drop sanctions.  This would allow the Moon administration to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.  They would prefer President Trump to do this without the Kim regime having to give up their nuclear weapons.  Trump pushing the Kim regime to completely give up their nuclear weapons before sanctions are dropped makes Moon’s plans for a confederation much more difficult.  This is why Moon has been so complementary to President Trump and thrown around accolades such as “Nobel Peace Prize” in effort to win him over to drop sanctions.

Eventually, as B.R. Myers writes, both the Moon administration and the Kim regime hope this confederation will lead to their ultimate goal of the withdrawal of USFK.  As I have written about before, I don’t expect the Moon administration to directly call for this because it will mobilize the conservative ROK political opposition against him.  Instead he will use the cost sharing negotiations and anti-US groups to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration decides on its own to withdraw USFK.

Once again I recommend reading B.R. Myers entire article at this link.

Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:

Here is the first part of the statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea.  This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course.  An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term.  Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for.  Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation.  This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen.  One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:

“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”

In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy.  President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.

Should this matter to President Trump?  It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future.  If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it.  Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.

Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize.  So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible.  I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible.  I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country.  The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions.  I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit.    If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded.  The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.

To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money.  The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.

As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away.  It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?

Final Analysis

My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community.  However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.

I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them.  This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration.  Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada.  This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.

Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs? 

Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis.  Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted.  Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.

Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions?  Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again.  Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.

Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit?  If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.

Here is an article in the New York Times about the image makeover that President Moon has helped Kim Jong-un achieve over the past year.  I think this below passage from the article shows the example of either mass mental illness or effective control of the ROK media by the Moon administration if 77% of South Koreans actually think the Kim regime is trustworthy:

The summit meeting mainly rehashed old inter-Korean agreements that had never been kept, producing only a vaguely worded commitment to denuclearization and peace. But the images made the event a success, providing momentum for warmed ties between the two countries and redefining Mr. Kim in the eyes of many South Koreans.

The next morning, a South Korean newspaper filled its front and back pages with a photograph showing Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim crossing the border hand in hand. Mr. Kim, formerly vilified as the region’s most dangerous leader, was considered “trustworthy” by 77 percent of South Koreans following the meeting, according to a survey by the Korea Research Center.

“Chairman Kim’s popularity has risen rapidly among South Koreans, and so have the expectations,” Mr. Moon told Mr. Kim last month when they met for the second time at Panmunjom. He said the summit meeting especially strengthened Mr. Kim’s image among younger South Koreans, who have shaped their views of North Korea through the past decade of inter-Korean tensions and have become increasingly skeptical of reconciliation, much less reunification, with the North.  [New York Times]

What this means is that when Kim Jong-un eventually renegs on getting rid of his nuclear weapons he will blame the Americans and the Moon administration will make sure that 77% of South Koreans will agree with him.

I wonder if Dennis Rodman will be invited to Mar-a-Lago as well?  Could you imagine President Trump, Kim Jong-un, and Dennis Rodman all playing golf together?:

U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly toying with the idea of offering North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a second summit at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, possibly in the fall if the first bilateral summit goes smoothly next week.

Citing several U.S. government officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the White House wants Kim to commit to a timetable to surrender his country’s nuclear arsenal when they meet next Tuesday in Singapore, and that Trump has been advised not to offer Kim any concessions.

If the two men “hit it off,” the White House chief could suggest a second face-to-face meeting at his resort in the southern state of Florida, said the report, without further explanation. No North Korean leader has ever set foot in the United States. Kim has made only three known foreign trips so far since assuming power in December 2011, twice to China and once to South Korea.

“There could be more than one meeting, more than one conversation” between Kim and Trump, said Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s counselor. A nuclear deal, she continued, may take “two, three, four, five” meetings.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the venue for the Trump-Kim summit has finally been locked in:

The Capella Hotel on Singapore’s resort island of Sentosa was named the venue for next week’s historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un by the White House on Wednesday.

The much-anticipated summit is scheduled for 9 a.m. local time on June 12, and the announcement of the venue comes after U.S. and North Korean logistics teams scoured the Southeast Asian city-state last week for an optimal location.

After revealing the time of the meeting on Monday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, tweeted: “UPDATE: The venue for the Singapore summit between @POTUS [the president of the United States] and Leader Kim Jong Un will be the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island. We thank our great Singaporean hosts for their hospitality.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

I am still wondering who is picking up Kim Jong-un’s hotel bill since the US State Department says they aren’t paying for it:

The U.S. State Department addressed speculation about who is paying for the North Koreans’ stay in Singapore. Heather Nauert, spokesperson of the State Department, on Tuesday said, “The United States government is not paying for the North Korean delegation to stay” in Singapore, adding that it is not “paying for their expenses.”

I am glad to see that the State Department is not giving in to the demands to pay for Kim’s hotel bill.  I wonder if the South Koreans will end up getting stuck with Kim’s hotel bill?

Here is the latest development on the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore:

President Moon Jae-in will join North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore next week to declare an end to the Korean War, which has technically been running for 68 years, according to a diplomatic source.

“Preparations are already underway for President Moon to declare a formal end to the Korean War with the two leaders on June 12, the date of the North-U.S. summit, or the next day on the 13th,” said the source, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“Singapore has already begun preparations to host President Moon [for a trilateral meeting].”

If realized, the three leaders standing together to declare the Korean War’s end will certainly be a charged symbolic moment, but it will not have legal force.  (…………)

Expectations of a declaration to end the Korean War arose after Trump’s remarks early Saturday, when he said signing of a statement to end it would be “very important,” after a meeting with Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the North Korean Workers’ Party’s Central Committee, who delivered a letter from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“We talked about ending the war,” Trump said on the south lawn after Kim Yong-chol left the White House. “And you know, this war has been going on – it’s got to be the longest war – almost 70 years, right? And there is a possibility of something like that.

“Can you believe that we’re talking about the ending of the Korean War?” he continued. “You’re talking about 70 years.”

He said the declaration will be “more of a signing of a document,” and “very important.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read much more at the link, but is it just me or does it seem like President Moon was very eager to once again get the spotlight on him by forcing his way into this summit?

Anyway the so called into the Korean War won’t really be an end because the United Nations Armistice Command and China will also have to agree to the end of the Korean War to make it official.  This will allow President Trump to easily back out on this declaration at a later date if the Kim regime does not live up to whatever commitments they are prepared to make.

That is what some in Washington D.C. are thinking:

When Donald Trump abruptly scrapped their planned summit, Kim Jong Un sought out someone he knew would come over for a chat: South Korean leader Moon Jae-in.  (………….)

For now, Moon has maintained an appearance as a neutral middleman who can bridge the gap between Trump and Kim, two reactive leaders who create a high risk of miscalculation. Yet over the longer term, Moon’s desire to cut a peace deal with North Korea during his single five-year term means Trump could find it harder to enforce his “maximum pressure” campaign if talks break down again.

“There is a fine line between being an honest broker and being the North’s accomplice,” said Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum in Honolulu. “There are some in Washington who are seeing Moon as the latter and this builds upon the distrust that any progressive leader carries with him.”  [Bloomberg]

You can read more at the link, but if things turn out once again that North Korea gets aid and sanctions relief for little to nothing in return; the media and left will not think of Moon as an accomplice.  Instead they will award Moon the Nobel Peace Prize just like they did with former President Kim Dae-jung.

Kim Dae-jung gave the North Koreans a $500 million bribe to hold the summit and yet many in the media and the left defend his legacy to this day.  Arguably the bribe followed by nearly a decade of unconditional aid has sustained the Kim regime after the break up of the Soviet Union and allowed them to build their current nuclear arsenal.

However, maybe Moon will surprise us and he will convince Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear weapons with his current bromance effort.  If that is the case President Moon would definitely be worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize and any other accolade people want to give him.  I am however not getting my hopes up.