Category: Inter-Korean Issues

The NLL in the Yellow Sea has always been a flashpoint that could lead to a wider conflict. The ROK defense minister is clearly letting the North Korean regime know that any provocation they launch could lead to a wider conflict:

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik visits a memorial for 46 sailors killed in the 2010 sinking of the ROKS Cheonan corvette on the 14th anniversary of the incident at Baengnyeong Island in the Yellow Sea on March 26, 2024, in this photo provided by his office. 

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik on Tuesday called for defending the western sea border against enemy threats on the anniversary of the 2010 sinking of a South Korean warship by a North Korean torpedo attack.

The ROKS Cheonan corvette sank near the western Northern Limit Line (NLL), a de facto inter-Korean sea border, in March 2010, after a North Korean midget submarine fired a torpedo at it, killing 46 sailors.

“North Korea is claiming the NLL is a ghost line without legal grounds and is continuously trying to nullify it,” Shin said in his phone talks with the commanding officer of a new frigate named after the torpedoed warship.

“Protect the Yellow Sea and the NLL that the comrades before you have defended by giving up their lives.”

In turn, Cdr. Park Yeon-soo, the commanding officer, vowed to avenge the sailors of the Cheonan if the enemy undertakes a provocation. Park served on the previous warship and is a survivor of the 2010 attack.

Shin’s call came after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last month rejected the NLL as a “ghost” line and called for using force against South Korean vessels violating its waters.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but it will be interesting to see if the Kim regime tries to see whether or not the ROK government is bluffing on their hardline rhetoric. Kim Jong-un got away with sinking the Cheonan back in 2010 and may think he could get away with such a provocation today as well.

The Korea Times recently interviewed three Korean foreign policy experts about what they thought how a second Trump presidency would impact South Korea. What I found most interesting was not the Trump talk, but how these experts believe negotations with North Korea should continue to be centered around trying to get them to denuclearize:

Q: North Korea’s threat has become sophisticated. And the North had continued to build up its nuclear capabilities to solidify its status as a nuclear power. Given this, do you believe denuclearizing North Korea is achievable? Will there be a need to discard denuclearization negotiations and adopt a new format of disarmament talks? 

Kim: Denuclearization is and should continue to be an end goal to achieve. This is a daunting task unprecedented in the history of nuclear arms control and disarmament, but it cannot be given up. If we give up denuclearization, North Korea will be recognized as a de facto nuclear state. And this likely means the beginning of the collapse of the NPT. This is a nightmare for all. If North Korea becomes a nuclear weapon state, this would agitate South Koreans, and public opinion would evolve even stronger in favor of South Korea’s nuclear armament. If South Korea arms itself with nuclear weapons, other countries in the region, such as Japan and even Taiwan, will also feel the need to follow suit. If this happens, not only the U.S. but also China will face unmanageable proliferation risks. 

A nuclear-weapon-free North Korea may sound unfeasible at the moment, but we need to keep trying to make it happen. For that, we need to prevail on North Korea to come back to negotiation on the basis that everything should be on the table. This means both of our and their concerns must not be precluded from any negotiation. 

Ahn: The importance of the NPT cannot be overstated. When the treaty was proposed by the U.S. in 1960’s, the former Soviet Union was fully supportive because there was a shared belief that the international community needed such a scheme to prevent proliferation. The first survey that asked South Koreans about their opinions about South Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons was released in 2022 and at that time, 76 percent of South Koreans were in favor. The U.S. officials and think tank experts whom I met were stunned whenever they heard about the survey results. Eventually, South Koreans’ overwhelming support for nuclear armament became a type of leverage and convinced the U.S. to team up with South Korea to create the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The NCG is a very useful institution for South Korea and we need to make the most of it to deter North Korea’s threat.

Korea Times

You can read much more at the link, but I just don’t see how you negotiate to achieve something that is not going to happen. Kim Jong-un is not going to give up his nuclear weapons, it is his ultimate regime survival trump card. Plus his nuclear weapons program to continues to make his regime relevant internationally. He has already turned down a deal for denuclearization in return for dropping of sanctions and nothing has changed in the intervening years that would change his mind.

Here are the latest comments from President Yoon on North Korea:

 President Yoon Suk Yeol said Wednesday that the North Korean regime is an “irrational group” that has legalized the preemptive use of nuclear weapons and will likely carry out multiple provocations to interfere with South Korea’s April parliamentary elections.

Yoon’s remark came as North Korea has ratcheted up tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a series of weapons tests since the start of the year, including back-to-back cruise missile launches last Wednesday, Sunday and Tuesday. (…..)

“Such actions themselves are anti-national and anti-unification, and provocations and threats that run counter to history,” Yoon said while presiding over the annual central integrated defense council meeting at the former presidential compound of Cheong Wa Dae.

“The North Korean regime is an irrational group that has legalized the preemptive use of nuclear weapons as the only (country) in the world to do so. If it was a sensible regime, it would abandon its nuclear weapons and search for a way for its people to live, but the North Korean regime is bent only on maintaining its hereditary, totalitarian regime,” he said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I think what President Yoon gets wrong is that the Kim regime is rationale from their perspective. It makes sense for them to continue to conduct weapons tests and maintain their status as a global threat to be taken seriously. Why would the U.S. make any serious concessions to North Korea during any potential negotiations if North Korea did not have proven ICBM and nuclear capabilities? These capabilities have also become a source of national pride for North Korea, a country that has little to be proud of.

It also makes sense that the Kim regime is going to continue to conduct provocations before April’s parliamentary elections. To get to any potential negotations where concessions favorable to North Korea are made they need to get Yoon and other conservatives out of office. The parlimentary elections are the first step to politically neutering ROK conservatives and set conditions for another Korean leftist to become the next President.

North Korea ultimately wants to get sanctions dropped while giving up little to nothing in return. They almost got this deal during the Moon administration and South Korea and the Trump administration in the U.S.

President Yoon best hope that Kim Jong-un does not call him on this threat. For example if North Korea was to sink a ROK naval ship would President Yoon order the ROK military to then launch an attack against a North Korean naval base to sink multiple ships in response? If he does things can quickly escalate:

President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed Tuesday to punish North Korea multiple times as hard in the event it carries out a provocation against South Korea, after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for defining South Korea as a “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”

Kim issued the call during a parliamentary meeting Monday, saying the country should revise its constitution to codify the new definition of South Korea and the North’s commitment to “completely occupying” South Korean territory in the event of war.

“The current Republic of Korea government is different from any previous government,” Yoon said during a Cabinet meeting, referring to South Korea by its formal name. “Our military has an overwhelming response capability. … Should North Korea provoke us, we will punish them multiple times as hard.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Just another example of why the Kim regime cannot be trusted to keep to agreements:

North Korea breached the recently scrapped 2018 inter-Korean military accord approximately 3,600 times, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday.

The number of violations by North Korea, counted from the time the deal was reached six years ago, was announced following three consecutive days of North Korean provocations along the sea boundary.

The JCS in Seoul told the press that due to North Korea’s firing of artillery shells near South Korean border islands over the past three days, there are now no areas where military measures are halted.

“Rather than reacting to the enemy actions on a case-by-case basis, our troops will be carrying out drills according to our own plans in the northwestern islands,” it said.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

The 2010 sinking of the Cheonan and other provocations by North Korea in the Yellow Sea have never had a proper response from the ROK. For example after the 2002 West Sea Naval Battle that saw six ROK sailors dead the North Koreans celebrated the aftermath while the ROK did nothing in response. In fact the ROK President did not attend the memorial ceremony and surviving family members were treated poorly in an effort to downplay the provocation. With the new ROK defense chief it looks like any future provocations will have a serious response:

South Korea’s defense chief on Tuesday instructed Navy officials to mercilessly bury North Korean sailors at sea in the event of another North Korean provocation.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik made the remark as he inspected the new 2,800-ton ROKS Cheonan frigate, which was deployed for operations to the headquarters of the Navy’s Second Fleet in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on Saturday.

Shin told Navy officials and sailors to “mercilessly bury (the enemy) at sea if the enemy stages yet another provocation” after he paid tribute to 46 fallen sailors at the memorial monument at the headquarters of the Navy’s Second Fleet.

In 2010, North Korea torpedoed the 1,200-ton-class Cheonan corvette near the western Northern Limit Line, the de facto inter-Korean sea border, killing 46 South Korean sailors. A Seoul-led multinational investigation concluded that Pyongyang torpedoed the Cheonan warship, but the North has denied its involvement in the incident.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It is not a double standard because the ROK does not have UN sanctions against developing ballistic missiles. Plus it was a commercial Falcon 9 rocket from SpaceX that put the ROK’s spy satellite into orbit. If North Korea would stop being a global pariah and become a responsible nation maybe they would have sanctions dropped to allow them to have their own peaceful space program:

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying South Korea’s first indigenous spy satellite lifts off from U.S. Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Dec. 1, 2023 (local time), in this photo provided by SpaceX. (Yonhap)

North Korea on Monday denounced the United States for having a “double standard” over space programs, saying Washington helped South Korea with launching a military spy satellite, while condemning Pyongyang’s similar move.

South Korea successfully launched its first indigenous military spy satellite atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from a U.S. military base in California on Friday, after North Korea put its spy satellite Malligyong-1 into orbit on Nov. 21.

An unnamed spokesperson at North Korea’s National Aerospace Technology Administration said the U.S. has a “double standard” over South Korea’s spy satellite, as it “brazenly” helped Seoul’s launch, while condemning Pyongyang’s exercise of its sovereign right.

“Coercing the brigandish standard of the U.S. even in the space realm, a treasure common to mankind, should never be permitted,” the official said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The North Koreans have repeatedly violated the Inter-Korean military agreement signed in 2018. However, experts have cautioned Seoul from ending the agreement for the following reasons:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo, front row left and North Korean Minister of the People’s Armed Forces No Kwang-chol, front row right, shake hands after signing an inter-Korean military agreement during the inter-Korean summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in, back row left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Sept. 19, 2018. Joint Press Corps

“The agreement establishes guardrails that could prevent incidents from escalating into crises, however imperfect they may be. There is some utility in having buffer zones,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation who specializes in East Asian security issues.

The CMA has instituted buffer zones between the two Koreas by prohibiting hostility on land, sea and air near the border. Specifically, the two sides are restricted from conducting live-fire artillery drills within five kilometers of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Plus, no-fly zones have been implemented along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), along with a ban on the operation of unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters and other aircraft within 40 kilometers of the MDL.

“Given the current tensions (between the two Koreas), it is unlikely that another agreement like this can be drawn up in the foreseeable future, so that should be taken into consideration,” she added.

Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, echoed this sentiment, stating, “Though North Korea has violated the agreement on several occasions and is not adhering to the spirit of the CMA, South Korea is better off with the agreement in place than walking away from it.”

Roehrig added that security concerns regarding North Korea’s non-compliance with the CMA are relatively minor compared to the security and political costs of ending the agreement, which would undercut the broader goal of promoting long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula.

The absence of the military agreement would lead to increased belligerence from North Korea, analysts believe.

“Pyongyang would craft a narrative portraying Seoul as the aggressor, using South Korea’s suspension of the military agreement to justify its military provocations,” Roehrig said. 

In that sense, Aoki suggested that South Korea should further use the idea of suspending the CMA as political leverage against North Korea, instead of actually taking actions to scrap it, saying, “North Korea’s violation of the agreement makes it a problematic actor, so South Korea has the moral high ground.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

This is a good thought experiment, would all these university students and other anti-Israeli activists come out in defense of North Korea if South Korea responded to a Hamas like attack from the Kim regime?:

Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the presidential residence in Hannam-dong, central Seoul during a dinner meeting Sunday. 

“Even if North Korea miscalculates and commits any provocation, including a Hamas-style surprise attack, we will maintain a South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture that can immediately and resolutely punish it,” Yoon was quoted as saying, referring to the militant group’s attack on Israel last month.   
  
Austin conveyed U.S. President Joe Biden’s firm intent to further strengthen the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance more than ever, according to the presidential office.   
  
He reaffirmed his firm commitment to defend the South Korea by deploying the full spectrum of U.S. military capabilities.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes the North Koreans to rescue the people on this ship:

This file photo, taken Oct. 27, 2017, shows a South Korean patrol ship departing a port in Sokcho, 151 kilometers northeast of Seoul. (Yonhap)

A South Korean patrol ship on Sunday spotted a North Korean vessel stranded near the de-facto inter-Korean sea border in the East Sea and provided humanitarian assistance, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

The patrol ship was dispatched after a maritime patrol aircraft spotted the distressed vessel drifting in waters 200 kilometers east of the coastal town of Jejin and around 3 km north of the eastern Northern Limit Line (NLL) at 2:16 p.m., according to the JCS.

The South Korean ship initially deployed one inflatable boat to approach the vessel and confirmed it as a North Korean ship.

The North Korean vessel is suspected to be a small commercial ship some 10 meters long, according to an informed source. The military reportedly did not inspect the identities of those on board as the ship was in waters north of the NLL.

The people on board the North Korean ship said they have been adrift for 10 days and wished to return to their homeland, requesting assistance with food and water.

The South Korean military provided food and water “on humanitarian grounds,” and notified the North of the situation through the United Nations Command and international maritime communication channels for its assistance.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I also wonder what this so called commerical ship was transporting and where from?