For South Korea, a regional war that disrupts their energy supplies from the Middle East would be devestating to their economy. This is true for many other countries as well, which is wahy Israel is probably under enormous pressure right now to not retaliate for the attack on their country this weekend:
President Yoon Suk Yeol on Sunday presided over an emergency meeting to discuss the economic and security impact of heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s recent missile and drone strikes against Israel, his office said.
The meeting was held to discuss the global security and economic situation following the latest Mideast crisis and its impact on South Korea’s economy and security, it added.
Noting the growing uncertainty of the global economy arising from the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the participants agreed to keep close tabs on the impact on the international oil prices and exchange rate movements and to respond quickly to its effect on the economy, including supply chains.
This CCTV image shows South Korean oil tanker MT Hankuk Chemi arriving in an Iranian port after it was seized by Iranian troops on Jan. 4, 2021. An Iranian speedboat is seen in the red circle. (Yonhap)
South Korea is finalizing talks with the United States about using some of Iran’s money frozen in Seoul under U.S. sanctions to pay Tehran’s U.N. dues in arrears, a foreign ministry official said Wednesday.
Such progress in the talks for solutions to unblock the Iranian assets in South Korea appears to have affected Tehran’s decision to release most of the crew members of a seized South Korean oil tanker, according to the official.
On Tuesday, Tehran said its judiciary gave permission to free the sailors, except for the captain, from the MT Hankuk Chemi that has been seized by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps since Jan. 4 over allegedly polluting the ocean. Twenty sailors were aboard the ship, including five South Koreans.
Despite the Iranian government’s denial, speculation has mounted that the ship seizure might be related to Tehran’s discontent over its US$7 billion locked in South Korean banks due to U.S. sanctions.
You can read more at the link, but if you are a South Korean citizen traveling in areas with authoritarian regimes just remember you are a prime hostage target.
There is a lot of analysis going on right now in regards to what the Iranian missile strike will lead to:
Iran responded to the United States’ killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.
The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.
“It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation,” said Ganyard.
It is being reported that the missile strike did not hurt any Americans which leads me to conclude that the attack was carefully planned to try and not hurt anyone. If the Iranians gave a lot of indications and warnings of an impending attack this would give the people at each location time to shelter in hardened structures. Additionally if the strikes hit on the perimeter of the bases that would reduce the risk of casualties as well.
I believe the Iranians calculated that if they killed any Americans President Trump would have to respond forcefully. Now with little damage to show for the missile attack it gives the U.S. President reason to not respond forcibly while allowing the Iranians to save face. Ironically this missile attack is likely a deescalation attempt by the Iranians.
However, what I am most interested in is what will the North Koreans learn from this missile attack? I have always believed that if a pre-emptive strike was taken against North Korea’s nuclear or missile related facilities the Kim regime would respond with ballistic missile strikes against U.S. military bases in South Korea. If President Trump does not respond strongly to the Iranian missile attack, this could signal to the Kim regime that such a strategy could be feasible as long as Americans are not killed.
That would be a difficult feat to pull off considering how densely populated South Korea is around U.S. military bases compared to the two bases in Iraq. However, if a U.S. airstrike killed North Korean soldiers or civilians they could justify the killing of U.S. military servicemembers in such a retaliatory strike.
Unlike the two bases in Iraq, U.S. military bases in South Korea do have missile defense battery’s to protect them. This will help mitigate any attack, but no missile defense is 100% effective if North Korea is committed to massing fires on one location.
As far ROK nationals killed or injured I think the Kim regime cares less about because they don’t feel the Blue House would push for forceful retaliation and they could just blame the death of the ROK nationals on the U.S. for conducting the pre-emptive strike. The Korean left would assuredly promote this rationale and likely be protesting the U.S. after any such attack.
So whatever response comes from the Trump administration after the Iranian missile attack, North Korea will assuredly be closely watching to inform any future response plans they may have.
It is going to be interesting to see if the Trump administration allows this to happen:
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called in the South Korean ambassador last month to demand payment of 7 trillion won ($6 billion) for oil it sold to the Asian country, Chosun Ilbo reported, citing officials it didn’t identify.
Iran expressed “strong regret” over Seoul’s failure to complete the payment, which has been deposited at two South Korean banks without being transferred to Iran’s central bank for years due to U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country, the newspaper said. It added that other Iranian authorities including the central bank also complained.
South Korea sent a delegation to the Middle East late last month and explained that the country will cooperate with the U.S. to successfully complete transfer of the payment, it added.
Considering that South Korea receives most of their energy from the Middle East it seems like it would be in their interests to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open:
Strait of Hormuz
South Korea is closely monitoring the situation in waters off Iran, including the U.S.’ possible request for its troops dispatch to the region, the defense ministry said Monday.
The United States has been asking its allies to join a military coalition to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran.
“So far, we have not received any official requests from the U.S. side over the possible dispatch of our troops,” Col. Roh Jae-cheon, the deputy ministry spokesman, told a regular briefing.
“South Korea is keeping a close tab on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz while opening various possibilities in consideration of potential impacts the matter could have on our side,” he added.
Another official said that the ministry “is reviewing diverse options and measures with regards to the issue.”
Some observers have said that U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton could make such a request during his two-day visit here that begins Tuesday.
You can read more at the link, but so far Iran has not messed with energy shipments to South Korea. South Korea has actually had good relations with Iran to include the prior President conducting a state visit.
President Moon might calculate that dispatching a naval presence to the Strait of the Hormuz could anger Iran. Another factor to consider is the ROK may not want to cooperate with the Japanese Navy if it participates in such a maritime mission as well. It will be interesting to see what President Moon decides if asked by the U.S. to participate in the mission.
The attacks on these ships just happens to occur while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is visiting:
Two oil tankers were damaged in a suspected attack off the Gulf of Oman early Thursday, prompting the rescue of dozens of crew members.
The U.S. Navy’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet told Reuters it was assisting two tankers in the Gulf of Oman after receiving two distress calls. Details of the incident were unclear, but one of the operators made an unconfirmed report that a torpedo had hit its ship, Reuters reported.
“We are aware of the reported attack on tankers in the Gulf of Oman. U.S. Naval Forces in the region received two separate distress calls at 6:12 a.m. local time and a second one at 7:00 a.m.,” Joshua Frey of the Fifth Fleet said. The Fleet did not blame anyone for the attack.
One of the vessels involved was identified as the MT Front Altair, a Marshall Islands-flagged but Norwegian-owned crude oil tanker carrying naphtha, a petrochemical product, to Japan.
A South Korean Hyundai ship based in Dubai actually rescued the crew of the Front Altair.
The obvious play here is that the Iranians attacked these ships because they did not like whatever message they received from Prime Minister Abe on behalf of President Trump. The Iranians have long threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and cause world oil prices to surge and this is a reminder of that fact.
Just another example that the Israeli do not play around when it comes to bad actors plotting against them:
A missile launched by an Israeli jet flies near Damascus, the Syrian capital, in this Dec. 25 file photo. / Korea Times file
North Korean missile experts who worked on Syrian weapons development were killed and wounded in an Israeli airstrike in Syria, according to an Israeli media report.
Debka File, an Israeli defense media outlet, reported the airstrike, which hit the Scientific Studies and Research Center in the Syrian town of Masyaf on Saturday, killed and wounded weapons experts from North Korea and Belarus as well as Iranian and Syrian military officers. It said the missile technicians were hired to upgrade Syrian missiles, citing Western intelligence sources. It did not state the exact number of casualties.
AFP, meanwhile, wrote the attack was carried out early Saturday and killed several Iranian military personnel and wounded 17 Syrian troops and their allies.
“North Korean engineers were working on the production of solid fuel, while Belarusians were in the pay of Syria’s Organization of Technological Industries,” Debka File reported.
“Especially targeted were the sections working on the upgrade of Syrian and Hezbollah surface missiles, the production of solid fuel for those missiles and the departments focusing on installing new guidance instruments to enhance their precision.”
The diplomatic isolation of North Korea continues:
Jordan has cut diplomatic ties with North Korea amid global efforts to put pressure on Pyongyang to give up its missile and nuclear programs, local media reported Friday.
The decision was disclosed on the Jordanian government’s website after it was approved by a royal decree, according to the reports. AFP earlier reported that it is “in line with the policies of its allies,” apparently including the U.S.
Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also recently cut their diplomatic relations with the North. [Yonhap]
What I am wondering is if the Koreans can build this entire smart city quicker than it took to build the Camp Humphreys expansion that has been going on for over a decade?:
The Korean public and private sectors will help build a new city in Kuwait. This will be the first time Korea will construct a so-called smart city abroad.
The Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) has signed a contract with Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare to lead the project that aims to build a new city called South Saad Al-Abdulla, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said on Monday.
The city is about 30 kilometers (18 miles) west of the capital of Kuwait City and is 64.4 square kilometers (15,913 acres), about 300 percent larger than Korea’s Bundang. The Kuwaiti government plans to make it the first city in the Middle East to be both environmentally friendly and smart.
The Korean Transport Ministry said the LH will manage the project and Korean consortium in which Korea’s city planning firms will come up with plans to design the city. Posco A&C and Hyundai Architects & Engineers will be a few of the companies that will join the consortium.
The consortium will be fully organized in 2018 and Monday’s deal will give the group two years to design the city.
The Korean and Kuwaiti governments will analyze the profitability of the project plans submitted by the consortium in 2019 and will decide whether to proceed as early as 2019. The Korean Transport Ministry, however, said that the date of completion for construction is still undecided. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
