Category: Politics-Korea

This is pretty incredible how quickly President Yoon’s approval rating has jumped despite being impeached for the martial law fiasco. The article is speculating that conservatives in Korea are rallying around Yoon because of how much they despite the opposition leader Lee Jae-myung:

In the first several months after his inauguration in May 2022, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating quickly fell below 40 percent in most polls and never recovered to that level again.

His controversial decision to declare martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, appeared to seal his fate as a failed leader rejected by the people including those who voted for him, with some surveys showing his popularity plunging to as low as 11 percent.

However, in an unexpected turn of events, his approval rating is now bouncing back — surpassing the levels seen before the martial law declaration.

A poll conducted between Jan. 3 and 4 by KOPRA found that 40 percent of respondents supported Yoon. In a poll conducted by the same pollster four months ago, 30 percent did.

In another survey released on Monday by Realmeter, his party also enjoyed a jump in support, with 34.4 percent saying they support the ruling People Power Party, up from 30.6 percent in a poll conducted a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the approval rating for the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) inched down to 45.2 percent from 45.8 percent in the Realmeter poll. The figure surged to 52.4 percent in the week that followed Yoon’s six-hour imposition of military rule, and has been decreasing since.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

As long as Presidential security remains loyal to President Yoon I don’t see how they are going to be able to arrest him. However, if the Constitutional Court validates Yoon’s impeachment that is when I suspect Presidential security will allow him to be arrested. This is why the authorities should probably wait for the Constitutional Court to render their verdict first before trying to arrest Yoon:

The state anti-corruption agency has asked the police to take over the execution of a warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law bid, both sides said Monday.

The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) made the request in an official letter late Sunday with one day left until the warrant’s expiry.

“The CIO sent us an official letter requesting our cooperation without prior consultations,” a police official told Yonhap News Agency. “We are internally carrying out a legal review.”

The CIO halted its execution of the warrant last Friday after an hourslong standoff with presidential security staff at the presidential residence. (……)

Sources said the CIO’s letter was prompting complaints within the police that the agency was trying to shift its responsibilities after passively executing the warrant last Friday.

Yoon’s legal team has rejected the warrant as illegal and invalid, noting the CIO is not technically authorized to investigate charges of insurrection that Yoon faces over his martial law decree.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The attempt to arrest President Yoon has failed, fortunately this did not turn into a huge brawl:

Investigators from the state anti-corruption agency and police officers leave the premises of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s official residence in Seoul on Jan. 3, 2025, after failing to execute a warrant to detain Yoon over his failed bid to impose martial law in December. (Yonhap)

The state anti-corruption agency suspended its attempt to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law bid Friday following an hourslong standoff between investigators and presidential security staff.

The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) is expected to make another attempt to detain Yoon over the weekend, while the Presidential Security Service (PSS) threatened to take legal action against “unauthorized trespassing” on the presidential residence.

Yonhap

Here is Yoon’s lawyers’ view of this arrest warrant:

The official said three prosecutors were allowed to walk up to the front of the residence, but not inside, making it difficult to determine whether the president was at home.

The prosecutors did, however, meet with two lawyers for Yoon — Yun Gap-geun and Kim Hong-il — who the official said repeated their position that the president could not comply with a warrant issued “illegally” to an agency unauthorized to investigate insurrection charges.

I still have not read a clear explanation of if what Yoon did was unconstiutional or not. It was clearly stupid and not something I would have advised, but was it illegal? If anyone has any links that lays out clearly the ROK President’s ability to declare martial law please leave them in the comments section.

Besides Presidential security blocking the attempt by investigators to arrest Yoon he also drew a large crowd of demonstrators in support of him:

Rallies by Yoon’s supporters outside the presidential residence, however, have complicated the CIO’s effort, along with the potential for clashes with the PSS.

More than 1,000 pro-Yoon protesters gathered near the residence on Friday morning. Surrounded by some 2,700 police officers deployed to maintain order, they chanted: “Illegal warrant. Completely invalid” and “Arrest the CIO.”

When news broke about the CIO’s withdrawal, the protesters, whose number had grown to 11,000 according to a police estimate, erupted in cheers and shouted “We won” while waving the South Korean and U.S. flags and chanting the president’s name.

You can read more at the link.

This could get really ugly if the Korean police try to raid the Presidential office and get into a fight with Presidential security:

Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, in a message to conservative supporters rallying outside his Seoul residence, vowed to “fight to the end” against “anti-state forces,” while his legal team warned Thursday that police officers attempting to detain him could face arrest by his presidential security service or even civilians.

Yoon’s latest statement of defiance came as the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials prepared to execute a detainment warrant against him that was issued by a Seoul court on Tuesday and is valid for one week. The warrant was issued after Yoon evaded multiple requests to appear for questioning and blocked searches of his office, hindering an investigation into whether his short-lived power grab on Dec. 3 amounted to rebellion.

Oh Dong-woon, the anti-corruption agency’s chief prosecutor, has indicated that police forces might be deployed if Yoon’s security service resists the detention attempt, which could occur as early as Thursday. But it remains unclear whether Yoon can be compelled to submit to questioning. Yoon’s legal team issued a statement on Thursday warning that any attempt by the anti-corruption agency to use police units for his detention would exceed their legal authority. The lawyers said police officers could face arrest by either the “presidential security service or any citizens” if they try to detain Yoon. They didn’t elaborate further on the claim.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

Lee Jae-myung with all his legal problems would probably have a lot in common to talk about with Donald Trump if he does in fact become president:

Despite standing trial for 12 criminal charges, including an election law violation for which he was convicted seven weeks ago, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), remains a heavy favorite to win the next presidential election, according to the latest poll by The Korea Times.

About 35 percent of the respondents said they would support Lee, far ahead of his potential rivals such as Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (7 percent), former People Power Party (PPP) leader Han Dong-hoon (5 percent) and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (4 percent) among others, the poll showed.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out because it has never happened before:

A Seoul court on Tuesday issued a warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his botched martial law imposition, making him the first sitting South Korean president to face arrest. 

The Seoul Western District Court approved a request from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) to issue the warrant against Yoon on charges of masterminding the botched Dec. 3 martial law declaration, orchestrating the insurrection and abusing power, according to the CIO. 

The court also approved a warrant to search Yoon’s presidential residence in Seoul’s Yongsan in connection with the investigation.

Yonhap

Here is how Yoon’s legal team is responding:

Although Yoon has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution, by law, the privilege does not extend to insurrection or treason charges.

Yoon’s defense team has argued the CIO lacks legal authority to investigate insurrection, a charge for which, in principle, police have investigative jurisdiction under the current system, amended during the previous government. 

Oh Dong-woon, the CIO chief, has said that, unlike search warrants, a court-issued detention or arrest warrant cannot legally be obstructed, even by the president.

You can read more at the link.

It looks like acting President Choi is trying to push a compromise between the KDP and the PPP which I doubt he is going to have much success with:

Acting President Choi Sang-mok appointed two out of three Constitutional Court justice nominees, Tuesday, as he presided over his first regular Cabinet meeting after assuming the role.

Choi took on the position following former acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo’s impeachment by the opposition-controlled National Assembly on Friday. Han was ousted for delaying the appointment of three Constitutional Court justice nominees who had won parliamentary approval on Thursday.

Choi appointed Jeong Gye-seon, nominated by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), and Cho Han-chang, recommended by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), but said he would hold off the appointment of Ma Eun-hyuk, nominated by the DPK, until rival parties reach a compromise.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.