Category: Politics-Korea

Former President Moon’s foreign policy advisor, Moon Chung-in has an interview in the Korea Times. Part of the interview focuses on what he thinks a President Trump presidency would mean for South Korea:

Q: If Trump were to be re-elected, what would his approach be toward North Korea? Would we witness another Trump-Kim bromance?

A: In a potential second term, Trump will prioritize solidifying his political legacy. His foreign policies would be greatly influenced by media attention and personal ego, as he values how history will remember him. Striking a “big deal” with Pyongyang and contributing to peace on the Korean Peninsula could serve as a pathway to fulfilling such an ambition, potentially earning him a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. While resolving the war in Ukraine or the Gaza crisis could also enhance his Nobel Prize prospects, negotiations with North Korea are likely to be a key agenda for Trump.

In that sense, Trump will actively engage North Korea, potentially even considering a visit to Pyongyang for a summit with Kim Jong-un, where Trump could present surprising offers. However, the success of such endeavors ultimately depends on Kim’s response.

Q: What would Kim want from Trump? And considering that their previous attempts did not yield favorable results, does that mean they will have to start from square one? 

A: Kim has little to lose by fostering a close relationship with Trump, as showcasing friendship with a global leader sends a powerful message both domestically and internationally.

However, the problem is that Kim’s trust in Trump was shattered when the former president did not keep his promise made during the Panmunjeom summit in June 2019. To mend that fractured trust, Trump would need to extend significant overtures this time. This could include pledges on immediate sanctions relief that would visibly improve North Korea’s economy, followed by the normalization of bilateral relations between Pyongyang and Washington. Additionally, Trump might propose halting joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, or even reducing the number of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops. In exchange, he could seek commitments from North Korea to cease nuclear and missile activities, along with a gradual reduction of its nuclear arsenal.

Korea Times

You can read much more at the link.

President Yoon sorta of gives an apology for the handbag-gate political setup:

President Yoon Suk Yeol apologized Thursday for what he called the “unwise conduct” of first lady Kim Keon Hee, referring to allegations she illegally accepted a luxury bag in 2022.

It was his clearest expression of regret yet since video emerged online last year appearing to show the first lady accepting a Christian Dior handbag, valued at around 3 million won (US$2,200), from a Korean American pastor armed with a hidden camera.

“I apologize for causing concern to the people with the unwise conduct of my wife,” Yoon said during a press conference marking the second anniversary of his presidency, which falls on Friday.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the First Lady early in the administration was still living in their private home without a staff that would normally vet and advise on visits like this. When Kim Keon-hee was given the bag she seemed surprised which demonstrates she was not expecting it and thought this was only going to be a meeting with a pastor her father supposedly knew. 

The fact this camera trap was executed early in Yoon’s presidency in 2022, but released shortly before the 2024 elections shows how this was a political setup to infleunce the parliamentary elections which it successfully did.

This whole hand bag-gate will probably be much to do about nothing, but at least President Yoon can say the issue has been investigated whenever the Korean left brings it up:

Prosecutor General Lee One-seok speaks to reporters in front of the Supreme Prosecutors Office on May 7, 2024. (Yonhap)

The top prosecutor on Tuesday pledged to speedily and strictly conduct an investigation into allegations that first lady Kim Keon Hee illegally received a luxury bag as a gift in 2022.

Prosecutor General Lee One-seok made the pledge after he ordered last week the creation of an investigation team dedicated to the allegations involving the first lady.

“The prosecution will conduct the investigation speedily and strictly only in accordance with evidence and the legal principles and take appropriate action accordingly,” Lee told reporters.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

How is $184 going to restore anyone’s “livelihood”?:

Rep. Park Chan-dae, the new floor leader of the Democratic Party, speaks at the National Assembly in western Seoul on May 3, 2024. (Yonhap)

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) plans to propose legislation providing cash handouts of 250,000 won (US$184) to the entire population as its first bill of the new National Assembly set to open later this month, its new floor leader said Monday.

Rep. Park Chan-dae unveiled the plan in a radio interview with local broadcaster MBC after DP leader Lee Jae-myung asked President Yoon Suk Yeol last Monday to accept his election pledge for the cash handouts as a way to help restore the people’s livelihoods.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The big thing with this agreed to bill is that the special investgation cannot issue warrants:

The ruling and main opposition parties agreed Wednesday to revise a special bill mandating a new investigation into the 2022 Itaewon tragedy that claimed 159 lives, both sides said.

The bill, which was initially railroaded by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in January but vetoed by President Yoon Suk Yeol, calls for the formation of an investigation committee to look into the root cause of the tragedy, which took place amid a crowd crush in Seoul’s Itaewon district during Halloween weekend in 2022.

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the DPK agreed on the committee’s makeup, period of operation and method of investigation, and will reflect the agreements in a revised bill before passing it through a plenary parliamentary session Thursday, they said.

Under the deal, the committee will not have the authority to conduct investigations ex officio or seek warrants, operate for up to a year with the possibility of extending its term by up to three months, and comprise a chair who will be chosen following consultations between the rival parties and four members recommended by each party.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It is amazing that President Yoon agreed to a meeting with Lee Jae-myung where he basically told Yoon he needs to agree to things to help put his wife in jail and help the oppostion impeach him:

Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung asked President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday to agree to a special probe into suspicions surrounding a Marine’s death and to resolve suspicions surrounding his family in an apparent reference to first lady Kim Keon Hee.

Lee made the demands during his first-ever meeting with Yoon at the presidential office, which followed the ruling People Power Party’s humiliating defeat to Lee’s Democratic Party (DP) in the April 10 parliamentary elections.

Lee also asked that the president accept his election pledge to give 250,000 won (US$182) in cash handouts to the entire population and agree to a special bill aimed at determining the truth behind the 2022 Itaewon crowd crush that left 159 people killed.

Yonhap

And then for good measure Lee Jae-myung throws in some Dokdo nonsense where he actually tries to get people to believe Yoon would give up the islets to Japan:

Lee listed a series of other issues, including those related to foreign policy, saying he hopes Yoon will consider shifting to a “national interest-centered practical diplomacy” and make active efforts to ensure “the people’s pride is not damaged with regard to relations with Japan,” citing Tokyo’s territorial claims to South Korea’s easternmost islets of Dokdo, the two countries’ shared history and the release of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

You can read more at the link, but I don’t see what the point of this meeting was? If Yoon thinks giving Lee Jae-myung this forum to attack him will help in future cooperation, I think he is mistaken. The only thing the opposition wants to cooperate with Yoon on is impeaching him like they did to former President Park. By the way is that not the two most forced smiles you have ever seen in the above picture?

With President Yoon continuing his foriegn policy outreach to Japan, it is a certainy that the Korean left will demonize and attack him. North Korea will very likely play along with this strategy by continuing their provocations in order to damage Yoon in hopes of getting another Korean leftist elected as President three years from now:

And despite being generally welcoming of ties with the West, the two opposition parties are more cautious than the Yoon government when it comes to engaging in geopolitical rivalry. Specifically, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung warned during the recent election campaign that South Korea should not become involved in the Russia-Ukraine war or China-Taiwan tensions.

The opposition might not directly stop Yoon from pursuing his foreign policy, but they are likely to pressure the president to pay attention to domestic political issues.

Moreover, opposition parties will be pushing the Yoon government to demonstrate what diplomatic “wins” the country has secured through its partnership with Japan and the United States. Notably, if the point of strategic partnership with the United States and Japan is to ensure security in East Asia, some voters may legitimately ask why it has failed to deter North Korea’s continued military provocations.

If the Yoon government cannot demonstrate diplomatic successes, opposition parties are likely to frame his foreign policy as one-sided “subservient diplomacy.”

Asia Times

You can read more at the link.

These two may despise each other, but it appears each knows they now need each other if any legislation will ever pass in the Korean parliament:

President Yoon Suk Yeol called main opposition leader Lee Jae-myung on Friday and proposed that they meet at the presidential office next week, his office said.

Yoon proposed the meeting after congratulating Lee of the Democratic Party and other party members on their win in last week’s parliamentary elections, according to senior presidential secretary for public relations Lee Do-woon.

“The president proposed to Chairman Lee in the phone call that they meet in Yongsan next week if it suits him,” the senior secretary said during a press briefing, referring to the district where the presidential office is located.

“The president said they should first meet and start communication, and in the future meet frequently, drink tea, have meals together and talk by phone and discuss state affairs,” he added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This does sound extremely far fetched and likely an attempt by some YTN reporter to draw attention to themselves:

The presidential office denied reports Wednesday that two people close to former President Moon Jae-in are under consideration for the next prime minister and presidential chief of staff.

Broadcasters TV Chosun and YTN reported that President Yoon Suk Yeol is considering tapping former SMEs Minister Park Young-sun for prime minister and Yang Jung-chul, former head of the Institute for Democracy, a think tank under the main opposition Democratic Party, as his chief of staff.

“Appointing people such as former Minister Park Young-sun and former Institute for Democracy chief Yang Jung-chul, which has been reported by certain news outlets, has not been considered,” the presidential office said in a notice to the press.

Park served as minister under the former liberal president, while Yang is known as one of Moon’s closest confidants.

The reports come as Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, presidential chief of staff Lee Kwan-sup and most senior presidential secretaries have submitted their resignations to take responsibility for the ruling party’s crushing defeat in last week’s parliamentary elections.

According to sources in political circles, Yang told people close to him that he thinks the reports are “farfetched.” (……)

“It’s an absurd story,” a senior presidential official told Yonhap News Agency.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.