Category: Politics-US

John Bolton Rules Out Pre-Emptive Strike On North Korea

| November 18, 2016

A candidate for a future Secretary of State under the Donald Trump administration says that there is “zero” chance of a pre-emptive US strike on North Korea:

John Bolton, considered a top candidate for secretary of state under the incoming administration of Donald Trump, said Wednesday the U.S. won’t launch a preemptive strike against North Korea, according to a South Korean lawmaker.

Bolton, who served as a top nonproliferation official under George W. Bush and is known for hawkish views on North Korea and other security threats, made the remark when he met with a group of South Korean lawmakers, according to Rep. Na Kyung-won of the ruling Saenuri Party.

Bolton even said there is “zero” chance of a U.S. preemptive attack on the North, according to Na.

“He said he’s well aware of how much price South Korea should pay in that case,” the lawmaker said. “He said the North Korean nuclear issue is being considered a top issue of concern due to the North’s nuclear tests and missile launches.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Should Korean-Americans Feel Threatened By A Trump Presidency?

| November 11, 2016

Even the Korea Times is jumping on the bandwagon that Trump won the US Presidential election because America is filled with white racists:

In disbelief and denial, people fear how their lives may or may not be impacted under a leader who has constantly been labeled a racist and sexist throughout a divisive and ugly campaign.

But for many Korean-Americans, the uncertainty runs even deeper.

”We’re talking about a man who has been hating on immigrants, not to mention criticizing South Korea as ‘free-riders,”’ says Michael Kim, 26, one of many younger generation Korean-Americans who have teamed up to campaign for Trump’s defeated Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton in California, a liberal stronghold. ”These two factors alone can’t be good for all of us Koreans who live in the U.S.”

Korean-American political observers say never in recent history have so many Koreans been unified against one single candidate.

According to a recent poll, 63 percent of eligible Korean-American voters said they would vote for Clinton, while only 10 percent backed Trump.

”The reason is simple,” says Lisa Kim, 42, a member of the Korean American Coalition in New York, a non-partisan community advocacy organization. ”People are feeling threatened by this new and emerging political force who has awaken a movement of white nationalists.”

Life in America under Trump’s leadership, Kim says, is likely to be tougher for Asians and other minorities.

”Racism is one of the biggest concerns we’re facing,” she said, stressing that this election has exposed a surprising depth of underlying racism deeply planted in the American society. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I fully expect more articles like this from the media as well as complaints about the Electoral College system in an attempt to delegitimize Trump before he even takes over the Presidency.

What the Election of Donald Trump Means for South Korea

| November 10, 2016

It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton.  Congratulations to him and his campaign team.  His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come.  By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:

“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.

To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”

“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said.  [Yonhap]

Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:

The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.

“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added.  [Yonhap]

So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump?  Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:

  • US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked.  The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.

    “Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

    Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:

  • I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA.  Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place.  I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.
  • North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements.  What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:

    Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.

    “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”

    “China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]

  • Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon.  With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US.  This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.

Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea.  I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.  If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose.  Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years?  If so please share your opinions in the comments section.

Report Claims Clinton’s Maid Had Access to a SCIF

| November 9, 2016

The NY Post recently reported that Hillary Clinton had been allowing her maid to print out classified emails for her.  What really puzzled me though was this passage where the maid had access to a SCIF:

Marina Santos
Marina Santos

Santos also had access to a highly secure room called an SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility) that diplomatic security agents set up at Whitehaven, according to FBI notes from an interview with Abedin.

From within the SCIF, Santos — who had no clearance — “collected documents from the secure facsimile machine for Clinton,” the FBI notes revealed.

Just how sensitive were the papers Santos presumably handled? The FBI noted Clinton periodically received the Presidential Daily Brief — a top-secret document prepared by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies — via the secure fax.  [NY Post]

Unless you are in the military or work with classified information in the government I don’t think most people realize how significant this is.  How did the maid have access to a SCIF?  How did she even get in?  I could only imagine what would happen to a servicemember who brought a random janitor for example into a military SCIF and let them run around and grab documents.

Poll Shows that 82% of South Koreans Support Hillary Clinton for President

| October 5, 2016

Considering how Trump has repeatedly said that he is going to make Koreans pay more for their defense and increase taxes on imports to protect American businesses is it any wonder why Hillary Clinton is polling so high in South Korea?:

Hillary Clinton meets then-ROK President Lee Myung-bak during her time as secretary of state.
Hillary Clinton meets then-ROK President Lee Myung-bak during her time as secretary of state.

If South Koreans could vote in the U.S. presidential election next month, Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide. More than 8 in 10 would throw their weight behind the Democratic candidate, who is surging in popularity both domestically and abroad, a survey released September 30 suggests.

In the poll of over 44,000 adults in 45 countries from August to September, WIN/Gallup International found that 82 percent of South Koreans would have voted for Clinton as the next U.S. president, compared to 3 percent backing her Republican opponent Donald Trump and 15 percent undecided or declining to answer.

South Koreans were Clinton’s third-strongest supporters behind only Finland and Portugal, which backed her 86 and 85 percent, respectively. The former first lady, senator, and secretary of state found support across the board, with Russia the only surveyed country preferring her business mogul rival and China nearly split on the candidates.  [The Diplomat via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link.

So What Does Colin Powell Really Think?

| September 16, 2016

Pretty interesting article about Colin Powell’s email that were hacked and released recently.  It is amazing he was willing to say these things on email, but here is one of the critical things he says about Hillary Clinton:

“I would rather not have to vote for her, although she is a friend I respect,” Powell wrote to Leeds on July 26, 2014. “A 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still dicking bimbos at home (according to the NYP).”  [Washington Examiner]

Here is what he had to say about Donald Trump:

“Yup, the whole birther movement was racist,” Mr. Powell wrote in one email. “That’s what the 99% believe. When Trump couldn’t keep that up he said he also wanted to see if the certificate noted that he was a Muslim. As I have said before, ‘What if he was?’ Muslims are born as Americans everyday.”

Powell also called Trump a “national disgrace” and an “international pariah.”

You can read much more at the link.