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Syria-North Korea Connection Scenarios

More details are coming out now in the international media about the Israeli airstrike in Syria three weeks ago that provides details about how the attack was carried out and further explains the Syrian and North Korean reactions to the airstrike:

Israeli commandos seized nuclear material of North Korean origin during a daring raid on a secret military site in Syria before Israel bombed it this month, according to informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem.

The attack was launched with American approval on September 6 after Washington was shown evidence the material was nuclear related, the well-placed sources say.

They confirmed that samples taken from Syria for testing had been identified as North Korean. This raised fears that Syria might have joined North Korea and Iran in seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Israeli special forces had been gathering intelligence for several months in Syria, according to Israeli sources. They located the nuclear material at a compound near Dayr az-Zwar in the north.  [Times of London]

The seizing of nuclear material by Israeli commandoes would explain the muted reaction by Syria to being bombed by Israel.  The typical ploy after a bombing strike such as this is to claim a wedding party was bombed and to roll out a few corpses from the morgue for the eager international media to bash Israel with.  Syria did none of this because Israel must have obtained something extremely sensitive in order to receive such a muted reaction from the Syrians and the world community at large.

What is also interesting is that the Bush Administration which has so much invested in "diplomacy" with North Korea that whatever evidence the Israelis had was enough to get the President to give his blessing for the raid:

Evidence that North Korean personnel were at the site is said to have been shared with President George W Bush over the summer. A senior American source said the administration sought proof of nuclear-related activities before giving the attack its blessing.

Diplomats in North Korea and China believe a number of North Koreans were killed in the strike, based on reports reaching Asian governments about conversations between Chinese and North Korean officials.

Syrian officials flew to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, last week, reinforcing the view that the two nations were coordinating their response.

After reading this report the probability that some kind of nuclear material was captured by the Israelis is more likely.  However, lets go through the possible scenarios.  Some reports have claimed Israel bombed weapons going to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  If that was the case Syria would have rolled out the wedding party bombing defense plus the raid happened no where near Lebanon.  Additionally this raid was conducted with the approval of Turkey since it appears the Israelis may have used Turkish airspace during the raid and there has been no protests from Turkey.  Bombing an arms shipment to Hezbollah probably would not have been enough justification for the Turks to give Israel use of their airspace.  Thus I think a Hezbollah arms shipment can pretty much be ruled out. 

Next is that a ballistic missile program supplied by North Korea was taken out.  The fact that North Korea has been supplying missiles to Syria as well as Iran and Pakistan is well known.  Four years ago a North Korean ship was intercepted smuggling missiles to even Yemen.  So why would the Israelis want to bomb Syria over ballistic missiles when they have been living for years with the ballistic missiles Syria already has?  Plus would bombing a missile program be enough to get the Turks to give approval to use their airspace?  I doubt it.  Also would the Syrian reaction be so muted to bombing a ballistic missile site?  Once again I doubt it. 

The only other scenario I can think of besides some kind of nuclear material is that maybe some chemical and biological weapons facility is what was raided.  Possibly the Israeli raid captured some of these weapons as evidence and then bombed the place afterwards.  The Syrians probably wouldn’t need the North Koreans to aid them with making these weapons however the North Korean engineers might have been there to help them mount the weapons on to their missiles.  If the Israelis captured chemical and biological warheads that would cause the muted reaction we have seen from the Syrians so far.  Could it be possible if WMDs were captured that they could be linked to being from Saddam Hussein’s former regime in Iraq?  That would definitely have the Syrians squirming. 

Whatever was raided three weeks ago I think the odds are pretty good that if it wasn’t nuclear material taken as evidence then it was some kind of other WMD program that was raided instead.  What is clear is that the ambiguity the US and Israel have been keeping with this story is being used to maximize negotiating leverage against Syria and North Korea.  I’m sure Israel would use the leverage to get Syria to stop sending arms to Hezbollah while the US would want Syria to quit funneling foreign jihadis into Iraq.  In regards to North Korea the US is going to want to maintain the illusion of "progress" with the six party talks as much as possible.  Despite all the ambiguity one thing that is clear is that however this whole issue unfolds it is going to be interesting.

To echo Joshua, where is Kim Jong-Bill when you need him?

More over at the Marmot’s Hole, One Free Korea, and DPRK Forum.

Sanctions to be Imposed on North Korea

UPDATE #1:  Michelle Malkin is reporting that high level talks between North Korea and Syria are occurring in Pyongyang:

North Korea and Syria held high-level talks Friday in Pyongyang, the North’s state media reported, amid suspicions that the two countries might be cooperating on a nuclear weapons program.

The talks took place between Choe Tae Bok, secretary of the Central Committee of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, and Saaeed Eleia Dawood, director of the organizational department of Syria’s Baath Arab Socialist Party, the official Korean Central News Agency reported.

The two sides discussed ways of improving friendship and cooperation and other issues of bilateral interest, KCNA said, without elaborating.

I think we all know what their bilateral interests are. 

____________________________________

I just saw on Fox News that the US government is going to impose increased sanctions on North Korea in regards to proliferating missiles as well as possible nuclear technology in regards to the Israeli’s airstrike in Syria two weeks ago.  No links yet available on the internet but I will update when some are available. 

I did find this report with more details about the Israeli strike in Syria:

Israel reportedly warned the United States that North Korea might be sharing nuclear know-how with Damascus before it carried out an air strike deep inside Syria.

Washington was "deeply troubled" by the Israeli intelligence showing North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, but US President George W. Bush decided against an immediate response out of concern it could derail delicate talks aimed at persuading Pyongyang to abandon its own nuclear program, the Washington Post said, citing unnamed US officials.

After Israel shared its intelligence with the Bush administration in recent months, which included satellite imagery, the United States provided Israel with some confirmation of the original information before Israel went ahead with the night air raid on September 6, the Post reported.

The quality of the Israeli intelligence, the nature of North Korea’s assistance and the seriousness of Syria’s atomic activities remained uncertain, the Post wrote. [AFP]

If this report it is true it shows that Israel warned the US government but in order to keep The Myth of Progress and the Six Party Charade alive on the Korean peninsula the US government ignored the warning.  The Israelis must have some very good evidence to now get the US government to implement increased sanctions on North Korea which will threaten the "progress" of the Six Party Talks. 

President Bush Admits to North Korean Proliferation

I think North Korea has now officially gotten away with proliferating nuclear technology to Syria:

US President George W. Bush said today he expects North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program and not allow other countries to gain its know-how on producing such technology and weapons.

"We expect them to honour their commitment to give up weapons and weapons programs," Mr Bush said. "To extent that they are proliferating, we expect them to stop their proliferation."

Mr Bush’s comments came after he declined to answer questions about reports from the US intelligence community of concerns that North Korea may have helped Syria with nuclear activities.

North Korea said on Wednesday that such allegations were groundless conspiracy fabricated by those who oppose the North’s improving ties with Washington.  [Herald-Sun]

"To the extent that they are proliferating, we expect them to stop their proliferation"?  WTF?  President Bush admits the North Koreans are proliferating and yet this does not affect all the aid and compromises the US government is giving to North Korea?  It appears that the Syrians and North Koreans calculated correctly that the world community and the United States would not respond in any meaningful way even if they were caught proliferating nuclear technology.  The world community simply does not care because after all a nuclear Iran or Syria would only be used to threaten Israel which many in the world community would not mind. 

The United States is now to invested in keeping the appearance that the diplomatic process has been successful on the Korean peninsula before confronting Iran on their nuclear program.  The US governments desperation to perpetuate the "Myth of Progress" is truly astounding.  I really hope the "Six Party Charade" and the sell out of a sound North Korea policy is worth the setting of conditions to bomb Iran.

What Was True Then Is True Now

So any guesses on who said this?:

“It appears we have appointed our worst generals to command forces, and our most gifted and brilliant to edit newspapers. In fact, I discovered by reading newspapers that these editor/geniuses plainly saw all my strategic defects from the start, yet failed to inform me until it was too late. Accordingly, I am readily willing to yield my command to these obviously superior intellects, and I will, in turn, do my best for the Cause by writing editorials – after the fact.”

Answer Below the Fold:

(more…)

Conscientious Objectors Can Avoid ROK Army

I think there is going to be a surge in recruiting for the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Korea:

Conscientious objectors for religious reasons will be permitted to perform an alternative service starting 2009 at the earliest. They will serve at social welfare centers. But the Ministry of Defense said it will require conscientious objectors to serve for 36 months, double the time for conscripts, to “ensure fairness.” The decision has sparked heated debate. The Korea Veterans’ Association denounced it saying it will “further encourage many young men to evade active-duty military service." [Chosun Ilbo]

Bonuses for Army Captains

If you are an Army Captain check this out:

Active-duty captains thinking about leaving the Army now have a whole new set of reasons to reconsider: a new program of five incentives, including up to $35,000 in cash, being offered to keep the valuable officers onboard.

But the offers, which the Army announced in a military personnel message Thursday, won’t last long. Some have deadlines as early as Oct. 19, and the last deadline is Dec. 15.

The incentives are limited only to captains with O-3 dates of rank from April 1, 2002, through Nov. 1, 2007, who entered active duty in the following branches: air defense, adjutant general, armor, aviation, chemical engineer, field artillery, finance, infantry, military police, quartermaster, signal and transportation.

Incentives also are available to Nurse Corps officers and select categories of Medical Service Corps officers promoted to captain April 2, 2002, through Nov. 1, 2007.

Reserve officers, warrant officers, members of the special branches and captains who have been primary-zone candidates for promotion to major are not eligible for any of the incentives, the message said.

Captains have five incentives to choose from, with a limit of one option per soldier. Each option has to be “paid for” with a service obligation whose period of time varies, depending on the incentive:

– Cash (Critical Skills Retention Bonus): There are three tiers, depending on branch — $25,000, $30,000 and $35,000. The $35,000 bonus is limited to captains commissioned in military intelligence, infantry, field artillery, aviation and the transportation corps. The service obligation for any bonus is 36 months. The application deadline is Dec. 14.

– Graduate school: The Army will pay for an officer to earn a master’s degree. The service obligation is three days for every day spent in school. The application deadline is Oct. 19.

– Ranger school (requires a 12-month service obligation) and the Defense Language Institute (requires a three-day service obligation for every day of school). The application deadline is Dec. 14 for both schools.

– Switching career branches or functional areas: The service obligation is three years. The application deadline is Nov. 23.

– Extending for assignment to installation of choice: Officers who take this option must have completed 12 months at their current permanent duty stations. If approved, officers will be guaranteed stabilization for at least 24 months. The service obligation is three years. Officers assigned to life-cycle units are not eligible.

For more details on the bonuses, including how to apply, soldiers can review MilPer Message 07-237 at https://perscomnd04.army.mil/milpermsgs.nsf. [Stars & Stripes]

I’m sure more than a few captains will take advantage of this.  Quite a good incentive. 

Is Blackwater Being Framed?

I think something is fishy about this entire story:

The United States on Tuesday suspended all land travel by U.S. diplomats and other civilian officials in Iraq outside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, amid mounting public outrage over the alleged killing of civilians by the U.S. Embassy’s security provider Blackwater USA.

The move came even as the Iraqi government appeared to back down from statements Monday that it had permanently revoked Blackwater’s license and would order its 1,000 personnel to leave the country — depriving American diplomats of security protection essential to operating in Baghdad.

"We are not intending to stop them and revoke their license indefinitely but we do need them to respect the law and the regulation here in Iraq," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told CNN.

Details of the weekend shootings haven’t been released, but the New York Times reported late Tuesday that a preliminary review by Iraq’s Ministry of Interior found that violence erupted as Blackwater security guards fired at a car when it did not heed a policeman’s call to stop, killing a couple and their infant.

According to the story on the Times Web site, the report said that Blackwater helicopters had also fired. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense said that 20 Iraqis were killed, higher than the 11 dead reported before.  [Robert Reid & Matthew Lee, AP]

The Interior Ministry’s version of events contradicts with what the Iraqi police and the Blackwater contractors claimed happened at the scene:

The newspaper said the report was presented to the Iraqi cabinet and, though unverified, seemed to contradict an account offered by Blackwater that the guards were responding to militants who had opened fire on State Department personnel. Iraqi police have said a car bomb exploded near a State Department convoy and that Blackwater guards began shooting.

What I think is going on is a disinformation campaign just like what happened with the Marines in Afghanistan and as usual the media is falling for it.   The Iraqi Interior Ministry is well known for its corruption and infiltration by the Mahdi Army.  So does anyone think it is any coincidence that this controversy happens and Al-Sadr is prepared to capitalize on it?:

Al-Sadr’s office in Najaf said the government should nullify contracts of all foreign security companies, branding them "criminal and intelligence firms."

"This aggression would not have happened had it not been for the presence of the occupiers who brought these companies, most of whose members are criminals and ex-convicts in American and Western prisons," the firebrand cleric said in a statement.

Al-Sadr insisted that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki prosecute those involved and ensure that families of the victims receive compensation.

The loss of Blackwater would be a huge set back because the State Department contractors would have no security to monitor the reconstruction projects going on around Iraq.  The delay of reconstruction projects would be a loss of creditability to the US and the Iraqi government.  Thus the US military may have to guard the reconstruction teams which may effect the scheduled redeployment of some of the "surge" troops back to America.  That is why it is critical for the US government to get Blackwater’s license to operate in Iraq renewed.    

Al-Sadr is whipping up nationalist sentiment over this manufactured incident which will make it difficult for the Iraqi government to side with the US and the Blackwater contractors over what happened.  Remember, perception is often reality, especially in Iraq, and Sadr and his Interior Ministry goons have already created the perception with the help of the biased and uncritical media.  This manufactured incident will be played over and over again in the media because the media has long been suspicious of the role of security contractors in Iraq and this manufactured incident only plays to those suspicions.  You can see by reading this that the media feeding frenzy over security contractors is about to go into overdrive.

In short brilliant move by Al-Sadr and his Iranian puppet masters to undermine US reconstructions efforts and create a wedge between the coalition and the Iraqi government over this issue that has all been aided by the more than willing US media.

North Korea Admits to HEU Program, Again

Is anyone besides David Albright surprised by this admission by North Korea?:

North Korea told the United States earlier this month that it procured materials related to centrifuges used for uranium enrichment from a third country, diplomatic sources said Monday.

North Korea’s revelation regarding aluminum pipes marks the first time that Pyongyang has admitted to allegations about a secret uranium enrichment program which sparked the current North Korean nuclear standoff.

But North Korea did not go as far as to say that it had begun uranium enrichment…

During the Geneva talks, North Korea’s chief delegate to the six-party talks, Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, admitted to his U.S. counterpart Christopher Hill, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, that North Korea had procured aluminum pipes from a third country, the sources said. [Kyodo News]

Kyodo is wrong in one part of this article, Richardson points out, this is not the first time North Korea has admitted to a secret uranium program.  I highly recommend everyone read the rest of Richardson’s analysis of this latest admission of a secret North Korean uranium program over at DRPK Studies.

Typhoon Nari Batters Korean Peninsula

I hope the news doesn’t get any worse from Typhoon Nari:

Six South Koreans died and four were missing in South Korea on Sunday after a typhoon hit the country’s southern coast, an official from the government emergency agency said.

Five were killed and four were missing in the resort island of Cheju as it was battered by typhoon Nari, whose name means a lily in Korean language, an official at South Korea’s National Emergency Management Agency told Reuters by telephone.

One woman was also found dead as a house collapsed in Jangheung, a coast county southwest of Seoul, added the official who asked not to be identified.

He said the death toll may rise and South Korea’s Yonhap news agency was already reporting 10 people confirmed dead and six reported missing because of the typhoon.

Local television stations were showing images of overturned trucks and uprooted trees in areas hit by the typhoon. [Reuters]