Category: US-ROK Alliance

Like I said before signing a new cost sharing deal would be a simple win for the Biden administration. The reported 13% rise allows the administration to say they were able to get the ROK to pay more when the Trump administration with their hardline tactics could not:

The United States and South Korea are just weeks away from coming together on a new cost-sharing deal for stationing 28,500 U.S. troops on the peninsula, CNN reported Wednesday.

The report, which cited five anonymous sources familiar with the discussions, said the contract taking shape is a multiyear deal that increases Seoul’s contribution by about 13%.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

As expected, it appears the Biden administration is going to fast track a new cost sharing agreement with South Korea:

The United States is committed to quickly reaching a defense cost-sharing agreement with South Korea that will be acceptable to both and help strengthen their alliance, an official from the U.S. Department of State said Friday.

The remarks came after Seoul officials said the sides agreed to seek an early conclusion to talks on Seoul’s share of the cost in maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula in a meeting held Friday (KST).

“We decline to comment on or confirm any specific details of our ongoing diplomatic conversations, but I can tell you that U.S. and ROK negotiators agreed to continue negotiations in the near future and are committed to expeditiously concluding an updated Special Measures Agreement (SMA) that will strengthen our alliance and our combined defense posture,” the department official told Yonhap News Agency in an emailed response to related questions.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but getting a new cost sharing agreement signed should be an easy win for the Biden administration.

As predicted the new U.S. Defense Secretary under President Biden, Lloyd Austin wants to get a new US-ROK cost sharing deal done quickly:

U.S. President Joe Biden’s nominee for secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin, said Wednesday he would bring about an early resolution to stalled military cost-sharing negotiations with South Korea.  
   
In a written statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Austin described the U.S. military alliance with Seoul as the “linchpin of peace and security in the region” and “among the most combined, interoperable, capable and dynamic” alliances in the world.  
   
If confirmed, the retired four-star general said he would focus on modernizing the alliance along with others throughout the Indo-Pacific region and “seek the early conclusion of cost-sharing negotiations with South Korea as part of those efforts.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Good luck trying to get President Moon to ever agree to this even though it makes sense from a national security perspective. The fact that Japan is part of it is just one reason why the Korean left can never agree to do this:

Harry Harris, in his farewell to South Korea as the U.S. ambassador, expressed the hope that the Asian country will join the U.S. and its other allies to stop China’s “malign influence” although not necessarily in the form of an expanded Quad.

Harris hinted that the door still remains open for the South to join the Quad, a security coalition of the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, which he described as a “natural grouping” based on shared views and therefore can be expanded.

“I believe the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a malign influence in the region and the world,” he told The Korea Times in an exclusive interview, Jan. 20, at Habib House, the official residence of the U.S. ambassador. “And I believe that it’s important for democratic countries to call out China when China does things that are contrary to democratic, accepted rules to the world.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

This could be a sign that the cost sharing issue will likely get resolved when the new Biden administration takes over:

South Korea and the United States are negotiating a plan to share labor costs and avoid once more furloughing local employees of U.S. Forces Korea, a spokesman for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense said Monday.

“South Korea and U.S. defense authorities are currently holding discussions for employment stability of Koreans working for USFK,” said Boo Seung-chan at a Monday ministry briefing.

Seoul and Washington have been at odds over President Donald Trump’s demand that South Korea substantially increase the amount it pays to host a U.S. military presence, a contract called the Special Measures Agreement. The previous agreement expired in December 2018.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

The problem Moon had not meeting the turn over timeline was that his own political outreach to North Korea that led to the suspension of joint exercises delayed meeting the conditions needed for this hand over:

South Korea is unlikely to reclaim its wartime operational command from the US by May 2022 as South Korean President Moon Jae-in has pledged, experts told The Korea Herald. 

Experts said little time is left in Moon’s tenure and the transfer will be delayed even after Seoul greets a new US military chief, as announced Friday. The new chief will replace Gen. Robert Abrams, commander of the United States Forces Korea who said it would be “premature” to set a date for the handover. 

The two allies skipped joint drills this year over coronavirus concerns, which would have tested Seoul’s readiness. 

“The new US commander will see the issue in a similar way. And the Biden administration will likewise highlight conditions to be met. There is little room for political maneuvering to expect otherwise,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

It looks like in the near future Korea could be seeing some more rotational forces if the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has his way:

The military needs to move away from units being permanently based overseas and focus more on rotational deployments, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday.

“I am not a fan of large, permanent military bases from the U.S. overseas in other people’s countries. I think that is something that needs a hard, hard look,” Army Gen. Mark Milley said during a defense forum in Washington, D.C., hosted by the U.S. Naval Institute. (………….)

Milley acknowledged there’s “no enthusiasm” for suggesting rotational forces over permanent overseas assignments, as many service members enjoy the overseas assignments with their families. Some countries also like having the permanent presence, he said, but those accompanying assignments bring risk. The amount of families living in South Korea with the threat of North Korea nearby has been a security challenge for decades, Milley said.

“If something were to happen, then we would have a significant amount of noncombatant, U.S. military dependents in harm’s way. I have a problem with that. I don’t have a problem with us, those of us in uniform, be in harm’s way. This is what we get paid for, this is what our job is,” said Milley.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but General Milley is right about the logistical issue of trying to evacuate families from Korea if a contingency was to occur. However, this has been a problem for decades and military leadership has decided to increase the amount of families in South Korea. We have all heard the tagline that USFK is the “Assignment of Choice” to encourage service members and their families to volunteer to come to Korea. What is the point of pulling out families if a few years down the road new military leadership decides to change things again?

I think the Korean government is not going to like this idea either. Having U.S. military families on the peninsula constrains what U.S. government leaders can do in response to North Korea provocations. Despite all of North Korea’s provocations that have killed many Korean and American military and civilian personnel over the decades, there has never been a punitive strike launched against the Kim regime. The location of Seoul near the DMZ is part of the constraint on decision making, but undoubtedly trying to evacuate USFK family members is another constraint as well.

Maybe allowing more rotational forces is a bargaining chip the Moon administration can use to get the Biden administration to agree to a peace treaty to advances it confederation policy?

No soon after I post an article speculating that South Korea is pursuing a policy of neutrality here comes President Moon’s trial balloon expert advocating for this exact policy:

South Korea should work together with Australia, Canada and Japan to form regional economic or security frameworks so as to create a new order free from the burden of choosing sides between the United States and China, an adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Friday.

Moon Chung-in, special foreign policy and security adviser, made the remarks during a virtual seminar, stressing that it is very unlikely the tensions between Washington and Beijing will get any better under the next U.S. administration of Joe Biden. 

“The Biden administration will be using a softer tone, but the policy will be as tough as Trump’s. There will be a tougher American encirclement of China, although he might be more selective in terms of technology and economy,” he said in the seminar hosted by the Korean Association for Public Diplomacy. 

“That will put us in an extremely difficult position. It will restore the old ‘bloc diplomacy’ … in the form of a new Cold War,” he said. 

Moon added that a worsening of U.S.-China tensions will make it difficult to resolve the North Korea issue peacefully.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the Cold War era strategy worked and served South Korea’s national interest very well.