Category: US-ROK Alliance

Over at the Lowy Institute which is an Australian think tank, they have article published speculating that South Korea could in the near future become a neutral nation:

Around five years ago, I submitted an article to a leading strategic studies journal detailing how options previously considered extreme – such as abandoning the US alliance, acceding to China’s dominance, declaring a position of neutrality and/or securing a nuclear weapons capacity – were entering strategic debate in South Korea. Their assessment was that such views were unrealistic and fanciful. One Trump administration later, and these views have entered mainstream political debate in South Korea. It’s time to realise that strategic change on the Korean peninsula will not come from North Korea – strategic change will come from South Korea.

Lowy Institute

You can read the rest at the link, but the author Jeffrey Robinson seems to be putting blame on the Trump administration for South Korea pursuing these different options. I would argue Trump has little to do with South Korea’s current political trajectory. I believe that current President Moon Jae-in is far more the reason for South Korea’s current political trajectory than Trump.

President Moon has long had a policy of appeasement with North Korea. His policy of appeasement stretches back to when he was former President Roh Moo-hyun’s Chief of Staff. Back in those days the ROK government was funding the North Korea regime more than they were contributing to the US-ROK alliance. The Kim regime of course used all that funding to further modernize their military, expand their nuclear weapons program, and build an ICBM capability instead of investing in the welfare of their people.

It has been effectively argued that the Moon administration’s ultimate goal if they are able to get sanctions eased is to pursue a confederacy with North Korea. To get to a confederacy a Korean War peace treaty is needed which would then pave the way for the end of the US-ROK alliance. That is why the South Korean left and the Kim regime has been relentlessly pushing for a Korean War peace treaty; if there is peace why is USFK needed? With sanctions eased and no USFK there is little reason to think the Korean left cannot push forward with their confederacy agenda.

A confederacy would leave the ROK at the mercy of the Kim regime’s nuclear weapons and China’s good will to keep North Korea in check. To keep North Korea in check the ROK would likely need to become a neutral nation in the strategic power competition in the region between China and the U.S. This would effectively Findlandize the ROK under China’s orbit. The anti-U.S. Korean left seems to prefer this inevitably instead of the current status quo that has brought unprecedented wealth and prosperity to South Korea.

The only thing that has stopped the confederacy agenda has been the Trump administration’s hardline stance on sanctions and denuclearization before any peace treaty. This clearly shows that Trump is not the cause, but instead the impediment to the Moon administration moving forward with their post-US-ROK alliance confederacy agenda.

This is really something more Korean troops should take part in because the NTC is some of the best training I have ever done in the Army:

Dozens of South Korean troops visited a U.S. military training center in California and staged combined training exercises with American service members, officials said Wednesday.

Around 50 Army members, including those from a reconnaissance unit, carried out various joint maneuvers with the U.S. troops at the U.S. Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC) for about a month from mid-October, according to the officials.

They returned home Tuesday and have been quarantined for the new coronavirus, they added.

Initially, the Army was scheduled to send troops to the training center earlier this year, but the plan was postponed due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. The NTC had been closed for months to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This is pretty much theater leading up to what will likely be a Joe Biden administration cutting a US-ROK cost sharing deal shortly after taking office:

Stalemated negotiations between the United States and Korea over the sharing of costs for the stationing of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) are expected to get a boost, with the U.S. House of Representatives planning to vote on a resolution calling for a strengthening of the alliance with Korea this week.

The resolution, “Expressing the importance of the United States alliance with the Republic of Korea and the contributions of Korean Americans in the United States,” was introduced by Rep. Thomas Suozzi (D-NY) in January this year and is expected to be passed at a scheduled House plenary meeting Wednesday (local time).

The resolution, which emphasizes the history and importance of the alliance between the countries in various sectors including national security and trade, is especially drawing attention as it is likely to change the U.S. stance for the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations with Korea. 

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

As long as the Korean left remains in power in South Korea this issue is not going to go away no matter who the U.S. President is:

Despite growing speculation that the United States may play a mediating role in the ongoing dispute between Korea and Japan under the Joe Biden administration, diplomatic experts suspect that the new American president’s brokering efforts will not be as active as some expect.

Tensions between Korea and Japan have shown no signs of abating, sparked by the latter’s imposition of export controls on three key materials critical for the semiconductor and display industries here in apparent retaliation for a ruling by Korea’s Supreme Court ordering Japanese companies to compensate Koreans who were forced to work for them before and during World War II. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

From Yonhap:

President Moon Jae-in on Friday expressed gratitude to the Combined Forces Command (CFC) between South Korea and the United States for helping Seoul tackle the coronavirus pandemic as he congratulated the command on its 42nd founding anniversary.

In a message sent to a ceremony held in Yongsan to mark the anniversary, Moon said that South Korea’s anti-COVID-19 measures could become a role model for the world as all members of the command endured inconveniences to prevent the spread of the virus. 

“Going forward, let’s overcome all obstacles together as we do right now,” Moon said in the message.

The binational entity was established on Nov. 7, 1978, as the warfighting headquarters with a mission of deterring outside aggression against South Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It makes me wonder how much Huawei technology will end up in Combined Forces Command if South Korea keeps buying tech from them:

A senior U.S. diplomat said Washington would respect the Korean government’s reluctance to force local companies to stop buying network equipment from Huawei.  

And yet Keith Krach, under secretary of state for economic growth, energy security and the environment, continued to cast doubts on the trustworthiness of the Chinese tech company during a press briefing on Friday.  

“The way we would look at it is that we respect the country of [South] Korea, and we respect their decisions. At the end of the day, I think it’s all about trust,” Krach was quoted as saying by Voice of America.  

The U.S. government has asked the Korean government to join its global effort to elbow out Huawei, taking an aim at LG U+, in particular. Huawei has supplied LG U+ with equipment for 4G LTE and 5G networks. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

I have always said that the Korean police can remove these protesters any time they wanted, the ROK government just chooses not to until recently:

The defense ministry on Thursday brought non-weapon materials and construction equipment onto a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) base in central South Korea after riot police dispersed protesters opposed to the deployment of the American anti-missile defense system.

The shipments transported into the base for the THAAD system in the central town of Seongju, about 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, included daily necessities for base troops and construction equipment and materials to be used to improve their living facilities, according to the ministry.

Their transportation was completed after riot police dispersed about 70 Seongju residents and civic activists, who had occupied a small bridge leading to the THAAD base from early morning to block any vehicles from approaching the military facility.

The protesters tied themselves up into ladder-like structures installed on the bridge to resist the police and shouted various slogans against THAAD.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

As long as the Moon administration is in power I don’t see South Korea getting tough on Chinese aggression in the region:

The United States is raising pressure on Korea to participate in its anti-China alliance, with Washington seeking unity with its allies against Beijing’s assertiveness in the region.

Korea has been reluctant to adopt the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at containing China, despite repeated calls from its biggest ally, because a stand against China would come at a large cost, given that it is Seoul’s largest trading partner. 

On Tuesday, Adm. Philip Davidson, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, made a visit to Defense Minister Suh Wook and discussed the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, according to the Ministry of National Defense. 

However, the meeting was seen as unusual given that the 52nd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) was just held a week ago in the U.S., where Suh met with his American counterpart Mark Esper. Davidson also accompanied them. 

In that respect, Davidson’s visit raised speculation that the U.S. would pressure Korea to jump on the anti-China bandwagon although the Korean defense ministry denied it. 

“The U.S. badly wanted to be able to cite Korea’s participation in or support for the anti-China coalition in the joint communique (after SCM), but to no avail,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international politics at Handong Global University.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.