Category: US-ROK Alliance

It doesn’t take an expert to know that the cancellation of the US-ROK military exercise will not motivate North Korea to want to discuss denuclearization when they have no intention to denuclearize:

Amid growing speculation that joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States are likely to be called off in a bid to prevent the spread of COVID-19, and appease North Korea, diplomatic experts believe a cancellation as an olive branch to Pyongyang is not a good idea, saying there will be no “reciprocity” from the isolated country.

Currently, the government is in a quandary over whether to cancel the annual drills as the COVID-19 pandemic shows no sign of abating. The exercises will bring hundreds of American troops here, raising concerns over possible new infections.

In addition, further deepening Seoul’s calculations is the possibility of military retaliation from the Kim Jong-un regime, as the totalitarian state describes the exercises as hostile action by the U.S. against the North. 

The government also wants the exercises to be focused on assessing the Korean military’s relevant capabilities on its way to regaining wartime operational control (OPCON) from the U.S. by 2022. Either a delay or a cancellation of the drills could disrupt the timetable for that. 

“If the military exercises are canceled or postponed, it is possible North Korea will relent and agree to an eventual working level meeting, in response to recent U.S.-South Korea requests to resume negotiations. I doubt, however, that the cancellation or postponement of the exercises will motivate the North to resume working-level negotiations, given that it has refused to meet with the U.S. or ROK since late 2019,” Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, told The Korea Times, referring to South Korea by its formal name, the Republic of Korea.

Korea Times

You can read more expert opinions at the link.

It looks like what was once called UFG will not happen again this year:

 South Korea and the United States appear increasingly likely to scale back or even call off a major combined exercise again due to the new coronavirus, after indefinitely postponing their annual springtime drill earlier this year, sources said Saturday. 

The repeated skipping of annual exercises, if realized, is feared to affect the joint combat posture between the two countries, as well as South Korea’s planned takeover of the wartime operational control (OPCON) of its forces from the U.S.

“Both sides share the need to stage the summertime exercise as planned, and we’ve continued consultations on the matter. But things are highly flexible due to the COVID-19 situation,” a defense ministry official said.

Seoul and Washington usually carry out major combined exercises twice a year — in around March and August. But they postponed this year’s springtime exercise due to COVID-19, and it has not been held to date, as the health crisis continues.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but basically it comes down to not being able to logistically test and quarantine the thousands of servicemembers who would come to Korea for the exercise.

I figured that South Korea would take notice of President Trump’s threat to pull U.S. troops out of Germany. However, I would not be surprised if the Moon administration would welcome removing half of U.S. troops:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he will cut the number of U.S. soldiers in Germany by about half, fueling concerns in Seoul he could make similar reductions to American troops in Korea.    
   
“One of the only countries that hasn’t agreed to pay what they’re supposed to pay is Germany,” Trump said to reporters at the White House in Washington. “So I said, until they pay we’re removing our soldiers, a number of our soldiers, by about half. And then when we get down to 25,000, we’ll see where we’re going.”  
   
Trump claimed that Germany was “delinquent” in payments to NATO and has been treating the United States “very badly on trade.”    
   
He added, “And I’m not only talking about Germany, by the way; I’m talking about plenty of other countries,” without specifying further.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

A temporary deal has been reached to get Korean employees back to work on U.S. bases:

 The United States and South Korea agreed to a $200 million stopgap measure allowing more than 4,000 local base employees to return to work after months of unpaid leave, despite the allies’ failure to reach a broader defense cost-sharing deal.

The Pentagon said Wednesday that it has accepted Seoul’s proposal to fund the labor costs for all South Korean employees of U.S. Forces Korea through the end of this year amid stalled talks on reaching a new contract known as the Special Measures Agreement.

“This decision effectively ends the partial furlough,” USFK commander Gen. Robert Abrams said in a separate statement. “We expect our entire workforce to return back to USFK within the next few weeks.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but it appears there is still no long term cost sharing deal that is going to happen any time soon.

Leave it to the usual suspects to be upset that the THAAD battery in South Korea is getting updated missiles to better protect the country:

 The defense ministry stuck to its flat-out denial Monday of any upgrades to a U.S. THAAD missile defense base in South Korea after a series of reports suggested that last week’s transport of military hardware into the base was aimed at upgrading or strengthening the unit.

On Friday, the U.S. Forces Korea brought new interceptor missiles as well as other military hardware and equipment for facility construction onto its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system base in the central town of Seongju by ground, according to the ministry. 

Officials here made it clear that the missiles were to replace expired ones and that no additional launchers were brought in. They also stressed that the transport has nothing to do with the U.S. project to upgrade the batteries.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Here is the latest on the USFK cost sharing issue:

US President Donald Trump told a press briefing Thursday that South Korea had agreed to pay “substantial money” to the US for the upkeep of the 28,500 American troops stationed here, repeating what he had told Reuters a week earlier. 

“It costs us a lot of money. And if we’re going to defend countries, they should also respect us by making a contribution,” Trump said.

The Trump administration is reportedly pushing Korea to pay about $1.3 billion, a whopping 49 percent more than Korea paid last year and roughly four times the amount that Seoul and Washington shook hands on for an interim deal last March.

Trump openly rejected the deal and has since pressed Korea to shoulder a greater share of the defense costs.

Korea Herald

You can read more at the link.

President Moon has enough political capital after his party won the parliamentary elections decisively to hold his ground on this issue:

Seoul is standing firm against Washington’s repeated pressure for a hefty increase in its share of the cost for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong United States Forces Korea (USFK) stationed here. Although the lack of deal has put thousands of Korean workers at U.S. military bases on unpaid leave, the government is not accepting the U.S. demand, but instead responding by setting up special laws to support the workers.

“Korea and the U.S. are still in negotiations over the defense cost-sharing deal and nothing has been officially decided yet,” the foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday.

Cheong Wa Dae also said that the allies were still in talks, adding that there was nothing new to reveal.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but I can see this dragging out for quite a while.

Here is the latest on the US-ROK cost sharing issue straight from the U.S. President himself:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that he “rejected” Seoul’s defense cost-sharing offer and pressed Korea “to pay for a big percentage of what we’re doing.”  

“Now, they’ve offered us a certain amount of money, and I’ve rejected it,” Trump said at a White House coronavirus task force press briefing Monday, as Seoul and Washington struggle to sign a new bilateral Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on the upkeep of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea. 

After months of negotiations, Korean officials at the end of last month indicated that the two sides were on the brink of signing a new deal after negotiators neared a tentative agreement which had Seoul paying a higher contribution than their previous accord but not anywhere near the amount demanded by Washington.  

U.S. officials told Reuters earlier this month that Trump decided to turn down Seoul’s offer to raise its contribution by at least 13 percent compared to the previous agreement.

“Look, you know, we’re doing a tremendous service,” said Trump in the briefing. “We have a wonderful feeling and a wonderful relationship with each other, but we have to be treated equitably and fairly.”

However, Trump appeared to deny a report that he was personally negotiating with President Moon Jae-in terms for a reduction of U.S. troops in Korea with four possible scenarios.  

“It’s not a question of reduction,” Trump said. “It’s a question of: Will they contribute toward the defense of their own nation?”

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but I think what is going on is that President Trump wants a larger cash payment from the ROK while in the past the ROK has used a lot of goods and services to offset cash payments.

For example they pay the salaries of the Korean employees that work for USFK. That is money that is going back into the Korean economy. They also pay for new buildings and renovations which once again is done by Korean workers putting that money back into the economy. The ROK will also purchase civilian vehicles and give them to USFK for official use as well. The vehicles purchased is also money going back into the Korean economy.

I don’t know, but I would not be surprised that President Trump being a business man is pushing for more cash payments to USFK instead of goods and services. With the ROK parliamentary elections over I think the real negotiating can actually begin.

As I have long said, I did not expect a cost sharing deal to get done before the April 15th Korean parliamentary elections and it appears that will be the case:

U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected South Korea’s offer to raise its contribution to shared defense costs by at least 13 percent, a news report said Friday.

Trump made the decision last week after consultations with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Reuters said, quoting unidentified current and former U.S. officials.

Esper made a phone call to South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo earlier this week to press Seoul to quickly agree to much higher contributions, it said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but politically there was no way the ruling party would agree to a major increase in defense spending. By the Trump administration turning down the modest increase, the Moon administration can go into the election saying they tried, but the Trump administration is too greedy and that is why all you Korean employees that work on U.S. bases are laid off.

The next decision by the Moon administration will be if they want to wait until after the U.S. Presidential election to make a deal.