Category: US-ROK Alliance

It will be interesting to see if the Moon administration will possibly delay the turn over of OPCON responsibilities due to the scale down of joint military exercises:

Seoul is in a dilemma over annual military exercises with Washington, trying to balance diplomacy with Pyongyang while staying on track for the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon).  

President Moon Jae-in pledged since he took office in 2017 that the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul should take place within his five-year term, and to carry this out, stable and regular joint military drills need to be conducted.  

However, those combined military exercises don’t help denuclearization negotiations with Pyongyang. Major Seoul-Washington exercises have been postponed, suspended or scaled down for the sake of diplomacy with the North since early 2018.  

Seoul’s Ministry of National Defense gave a briefing to Moon on Tuesday at the Gyeryongdae military complex in South Chungcheong on its comprehensive policy plan for this year. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the transfer of OPCON is such a political goal for the Moon administration, I think it will be hard for them to delay it.

This is a great way for the Moon administration to make it appear they are contributing to the international coalition defending the Strait of Hormuz when in reality they just added a liaison officer:

South Korea’s decision to send troops to the tense Strait of Hormuz for “independent” naval operations drove home its desire to cement alliance cooperation with the United States and avoid straining ties with its trade partner, Iran, analysts said Tuesday.

Capping monthslong deliberations that pitted security cooperation with Washington against economic relations with Tehran, Seoul announced it would temporarily expand areas of operations for its anti-piracy Cheonghae unit to cover the passageway off Iran.

The naval unit, now stationed in the Gulf of Aden, will operate independently of the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), a U.S.-led military coalition to safeguard freedom of navigation in the waterway, though it would cooperate with the coalition if need be. Two South Korean liaison officers will be dispatched to the IMSC.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but basically the ROK ship on anti-piracy duty in the Gulf of Aden can be asked by the US coalition for help through a ROK liaison officer that is deployed to assist them.

This is not a surprise considering the North Koreans have been so far this year behaving:

South Korea and the United States will modify their springtime combined exercises in order to support diplomatic efforts to denuclearize North Korea, the defense ministry said Tuesday.

Since the nuclear negotiating process began in 2018, the South and the U.S. have either scaled back or made other modifications to joint military drills in an effort to avoid provoking Pyongyang that has long denounced such maneuvers as a rehearsal for invasion.

“We’ve been smoothly preparing for planned combined drills,” a senior ministry official said. “If diplomatic efforts are under way, we will conduct (the drills) within the bounds to be agreed upon between the South and the U.S.”

The stance was part of the ministry’s comprehensive policy plan for the new year, which Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo reported to President Moon Jae-in at the Gyeryongdae military headquarters in the South Chungcheong Province in the day.

In line with the policy, the two countries are expected to replace their usual large-scale springtime exercise, Key Resolve and Foal Eagle maneuvers, with a computer-simulated command post exercise (CPX), called Dong Maeng, just as they did last year.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but Dong Maeng means “alliance” in English and it is what they replaced the UFL exercise with last summer. It looks like Key Resolve is going to use the same name. Even with the downsized exercise and name change the North Koreans still complained about it last year.

Ambassador Harris has already spoke out against President Moon’s idea to restart tourism into North Korea and the State Department has now formally put the Moon administration on notice:

The U.S. State Department said Washington expects every member of the United Nations to abide by North Korean sanctions, apparently objecting to remarks by South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he could use inter-Korean projects to “broaden international support” for a partial sanctions exemption for Pyongyang.

In an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo last Friday in Washington, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said it was crucial for all UN members to abide by UN sanctions when asked about Moon’s recent remarks to possibly allow individual tourism to the North.

When the reporter pointed out that individual tours to the North are not subject to current sanctions, Ortagus, without clearly mentioning anything about Moon’s idea, stressed that the Donald Trump administration was hopeful Trump’s special relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would lead to a “diplomatic breakthrough.”

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but this is all part of the Moon administration’s attempt to generate anti-U.S. sentiment prior to April’s legislative elections. Remember the ruling party cannot run on their record because of how poorly the economy and North Korean relations have been. Instead expect the Moon administration to create divisive issues with the U.S. and Japan to drive nationalistic voting in April. They likely hope this this combined with the new election law will be enough to maintain control of the legislature.

This is really nothing new on the U.S. President’s part; he has been very consistent on South Korea paying more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance. The only question at this point is how much is the increase going to be?:

U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly increased pressure on South Korea to pay more for the upkeep of 28,500 United States Forces Korea (USFK), ahead of the next round of negotiations for the ongoing defense cost-sharing talks scheduled to be held in Washington, D.C., Tuesday and Wednesday. 

The 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) ― as the talks are called ― between Washington and Seoul began in September last year for this year’s defense cost-sharing, but its year-end deadline has passed with the countries failing to narrow their differences. 

“These rich countries have to pay for it. South Korea gave us $500 million,” Trump said during an interview with Fox News, Friday (local time). “They’re a wealthy country. They build all your television sets, they took that away from us, they build ships, they build a lot of things. I said we’re protecting and you’ve got to pay. They paid us $500 million; they’re going to pay us a lot more.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It is looking like the Moon administration is going to drag its feet on this issue in attempt to stay out of any conflict between the U.S. and Iran:

The United States has ramped up its pressure on Korea to send a naval contingency force to the Middle East to be part of the U.S.-led coalition in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Seoul remains well aware of the importance of strengthening its alliance with Washington, but the government appears unable to make a quick decision on this as military tension between the U.S. and Iran escalates further. This follows Iran’s retaliatory attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, Wednesday, in the wake of a U.S. airstrike last week that targeted and killed an Iranian general. Participation in any maritime mission in such a climate, could endanger Seoul’s ties with Tehran and threaten the safety of Korean residents in Iran.

The latest push for participation from Seoul’s biggest ally came from U.S. Ambassador to Korea Harry Harris.

“I would hope that Korea will send forces out there,” Harris said in an interview with local broadcaster KBS, Tuesday, noting that Seoul gets so much of its oil from the Middle East.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but South Korea actually has good relations with Iran that they likely do not want to impact by sending a naval contingent to the Strait of Hormuz.

The other question that needs to be asked is if the Moon Jae-in administration wants to restart major bilateral exercises:

The United States will consider resuming military exercises with South Korea that have been suspended depending on North Korea’s next move, the Pentagon chief has said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper made the comment in an interview with MSNBC Thursday after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened in a New Year’s message to soon showcase a “new strategic weapon.”

Experts have said the strategic weapon could be an intercontinental ballistic missile intended to pressure the U.S. to make concessions in the two countries’ stalled denuclearization talks.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

You can see the racist conspiracy theories that the Chinese government promoted against Ambassador Harris when he was the INDOPACOM commander has been successfully promoted in South Korea as well:

“I am American ambassador to Korea, not the Japanese American ambassador.”

The former U.S. Pacific commander and admiral spoke not out of frustration but as a matter of fact, responding to suspicions of some Koreans that his Japanese heritage might make him biased in Japan’s favor and influence a U.S. stance on matters related to Korea and Japan. He was born to a U.S. military man and a Japanese mother in Japan and he was the first person of Asian descent to lead the Pacific Command.

He said that while serving as Pacific commander, China also once accused him of favoring Japan regarding his stance on Beijing’s hegemonic moves in the South China Sea. He said that not in the U.S. or elsewhere had his eth-nicity been made an issue during his career.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the ambassador’s critics in Korea even accuse him of wearing a mustache to replicate what Japanese colonial governors of Korea once had.

Ambassador Harris says that USFK will not be withdrawn as a result of the ongoing cost sharing negotiations or any deal with North Korea:

U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris, like his predecessors, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the bilateral alliance and the presence of American troops in the South irrespective of the situation.

His reaffirmation, however, seems more meaningful now because it comes amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump is using a half-century-old alliance as a bargaining chip and that the alliance is unraveling.

“American forces are here to stay … It’s not an American decision, not a Korean decision — it’s an alliance decision like many of the decisions we have taken in the past years and decades,” Harris said in an exclusive interview with The Korea Times at the U.S. Embassy in downtown Seoul last week. (………..)

Against this backdrop, Harris said, “There is no contemplation of U.S. forces leaving the Korean Peninsula, either as an outcome of Special Measures Agreement discussions or as an outcome of relationships with North Korea.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

People following this issue without preconceived biases knew the US-ROK cost sharing deal was not going to be $5 billion a year and was instead a negotiating tactic. Well it appears to have worked as the ROK is reportedly agreeing to a 10-20% increase in funding on top of the billion dollars of increased weapons purchases:

The U.S. and Korea narrowed differences significantly in the latest round of defense cost-sharing talks as the U.S. stepped back from demands for an exorbitant five-fold hike in Korea’s contribution, sources said Wednesday. 

But Washington is still demanding an expanded contribution from Seoul, which already pays more proportionally than any other U.S. ally for keeping 28,500 American troops here. 

“The two sides began narrowing their differences and moved toward a smaller increase in defense cost-sharing,” a diplomatic source said. 

The final agreement is not expected until February, two months past the expiry of the current agreement. 

The American negotiators took into account the views of several senior U.S. lawmakers that a $5 billion bill would be excessive. Instead, the two sides are likely to agree on a 10 to 20 percent hike in South Korea’s contribution and a hefty sweetener in arms purchases from the U.S., other sources said.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.