#GenDunford spoke with his #ROK counterpart by phone yesterday to thank him for his support over the past year and reaffirm his commitment to the 🇺🇸-🇰🇷alliance, a lynchpin of stability and security in the #IndoPacific.
— The Joint Staff (@thejointstaff) February 1, 2019
Full readout: https://t.co/dXpidVcZZq (File Photo) pic.twitter.com/tMkqnWu42F
I think President Moon is telling the truth here because President Trump is likely letting his surrogates negotiate the ultimate price for him. Trump though must have given his surrogates guidance on the lowest cost he is willing to accept:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday dismissed recent reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has named a specific price for keeping U.S. troops in South Korea, saying the leaders simply do not speak in such a manner.
Yonhap
“Not just President Trump but no leader of any country in the world speaks in such a manner,” the president was quoted as saying.
“Such reports can be an insult to President Trump,” he added, according to his spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom.
Moon’s remarks follow news reports that claimed the U.S. president may have asked South Korea to pay US$1.2 billion as part of costs to maintain U.S. Forces in Korea.
You can read more at the link.
It appears that the Trump administration is settling for the lowest sum they are willing to take which is $1 billion for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance:
The United States has demanded South Korea pay $1 billion (1.12 trillion won) in annual defense costs sharing, as its final proposal to months of negotiations on the issue, according to officials, Wednesday.
Korea Times
South Korea flatly rejected the demand, maintaining its position that it cannot pay more than 1 trillion won.
“U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris met with South Korea’s National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong last month to deliver the final proposal,” a government official said, asking for anonymity.
On top of that, Washington also urged Seoul to renew the cost-sharing contract each year from the current five year, according to the official.
You can read more at the link, but I have been saying that I don’t think this issue will be resolved until after the Trump-Kim2 summit. If Seoul gets what they want from the US during the summit then they may be more flexible on paying more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance.
It will be interesting to see if the USFK cost sharing issue is in fact used to drawdown troops from South Korea:
While the United States and North Korea try to revive nuclear talks, another dispute is simmering on the southern half of the peninsula over funding for U.S. forces.
Stars & Stripes
Seoul and Washington failed to agree on a new cost-sharing deal for the 28,500 U.S. servicemembers stationed in South Korea before the latest five-year contract expired on Dec. 31.
That has raised fears that President Donald Trump may threaten to draw down forces as he prepares for a possible second summit with North Korea.
The longtime allies held 10 rounds of talks since March but remained deadlocked as the new year began over Washington’s reported demand that South Korea increase its contribution by as much as 150 percent.
You can read more at the link, but analysts do have a point that if troops levels are reduced the Trump administration can blame South Korea for not increasing their contributions to the funding of the US-ROK alliance instead of saying it is a concession to North Korea.
If troops levels were to be cut it seems the easiest thing to do would be to stop the rotational brigade from deploying to South Korea.
I have maintained that the USFK cost sharing talks will likely only be resolved as part of a North Korea denuclearization deal. If President Trump signs a peace treaty to end the Korean War and drops sanctions on North Korea, the Moon administration will likely give him what he wants on the cost sharing deal:
As Seoul and Washington are currently deadlocked in negotiations to renew their bilateral defense cost-sharing agreement, the next level of talks will likely happen at a higher level.
Joong Ang Ilbo
“An 11th round of [the current] talks likely won’t be scheduled,” a high-level Korean government official told reporters Thursday. “Instead, it may be negotiated at a higher level.”
On the possibility of the deal on sharing the cost of stationing of U.S. troops in Korea then being negotiated between Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump, the official said, “all possibilities are open.”
Since last March, Seoul and Washington have been negotiating the renewal of the bilateral Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a multiyear cost-sharing deal under the Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, to maintain the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
Chang Won-sam has led the Korean delegation for the 10th SMA, while the U.S. delegation has been led by Timothy Betts, acting deputy assistant secretary for plans, programs and operations at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.
The tenth round of talks took place mid-December, but the two sides failed to narrow their differences before the current deal expired on Dec. 31. As the two sides have been unable to resolve their differences, diplomatic sources have indicated that the issue now needs to be solved by the two leaders.
The government official, however, said that “various channels of negotiations for the cost-sharing deal are being considered,” including between ambassadors, the Blue House National Security Office and White House National Security Council, as well as between South Korea’s foreign minister and U.S. secretary of state.
You can read more at the link.
This is all an attempt by the Moon administration to deflect criticism from conservative critics in South Korea and the US:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is well aware that the United States Forces Korea (USFK) will continue to be stationed in the South despite his ongoing efforts for the regime’s denuclearization, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in a televised New Year’s press conference, Thursday.
Korea Times
“Kim Jong-un clearly understands the North’s denuclearization has nothing to do with the presence of the USFK in the South, viewing its existence as part of the security alliance between Seoul and Washington,” Moon said.
The remark came amid lingering concerns that North Korea may demand the withdrawal of the USFK in the future, as it will be difficult for the South to justify U.S. troops’ continuing presence here after the possible declaration of the end to the 1950-53 Korean War.
You can read more at the link, but the rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty in order to challenge the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?
President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty.
Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces. That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.
Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju. President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.
A ROK Drop favorite, David Maxwell recently had this to say in The Hill about the cost sharing negotiations between the US and South Korea:
Trump seems not to recognize that the ROK makes significant contributions to its own defense. In 2017, 2.7 percent of its GDP went to defense — a higher percentage than any member of NATO except the U.S. Furthermore, the ROK’s 2018 defense budget increased by 9.9 pecent, or $40 billion, the largest in history. It has an active force of 625,000 troops with 28,000 Americans stationed in South Korea. Under the current SMA, the ROK covers half of the roughly $1.6 billion basing cost for American troops, but according to reports, Trump wants Seoul to pay 100 percent.
The Hill
Yet South Korea already covers more than just annual basing costs. The recently expanded Camp Humphreys is now the largest U.S. military base outside of the continental U.S. It cost some $10.7 billion and the ROK provided 90 percent of the funds. The ROK government also agreed to a renegotiated Korea-U.S Free Trade Agreement, in response to pressure from Trump. Finally, from 2012 through 2016 the ROK purchased $19.8 billion in U.S. military equipment through Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales.
It is essential for both sides to remember that the primary purpose of the alliance is to prevent war.
You can read more at the link.
This is all part of the Kim regime’s strategy to separate the ROK from the US to advance their confederation strategy:
North Korea’s official newspaper urged South Korea on Monday to stop joint military drills with the United States, saying it will help create a peaceful atmosphere and move forward inter-Korean relations.
Yonhap
The Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the North’s ruling party, also called on Seoul to stop bringing any foreign strategic assets onto the Korean Peninsula, reiterating what leader Kim Jong-un demanded during his New Year’s speech last week.
“Removing nuclear threats on the Korean Peninsula and fostering peaceful mood is an essential requirement for inter-Korean relations to move forward,” the newspaper said in a commentary.
You can read more at the link.
Former ROK JCS Ops Chief, Army Lt.Gen, Shin Won-sik said "Moon Admin agreed with the NK's denuke of peninsula plan not the CVID of NK that SK can withdraw of USFK in favor of NK(DPRK) as soon as this summer." #CFC #JCS #USFK #DPRK #MOON #Trump https://t.co/WxEQSFfKGN
— Dong Yon Kim/김동연 기자 (@dongyonews) January 7, 2019
South Korea paid ~$860 million this year for USFK cost sharing. South Korean negotiators have been trying to keep cost sharing increases below the $1 billion level. The Trump administration however, wants the ROK to pay $1.2 billion instead:
But an even bigger concern is that Washington and Seoul have failed to agree on dividing the cost of keeping U.S. troops here despite 10 rounds of talks so far. The Trump administration wants to double the South Korean share, but this year South Korea already paid W960.2 billion or half of the total upkeep cost (US$1=W1,126). Trump’s demand in short comes down to asking Seoul to pay for pretty much the entire upkeep. The Wall Street Journal said Trump’s negotiators asked for a 50-percent hike or US$1.2 billion. That is a huge increase considering the fact that Seoul’s share has grown only by 2.5 to 25.7 percent each year since 1991.
Chosun Ilbo
South Korean officials are reluctant to talk about the issue, which is extremely sensitive in the domestic political situation, while U.S. officials are merely saying there are “very big differences” between the two sides. There is a possibility of Trump threatening to pull U.S. troops out in order to pressure Seoul to pay more. He has been treating most diplomatic alliances from the perspective of whether they support the U.S. rather than in the traditional way of spreading the Pax Americana around the globe.
There is no telling what Trump will do to get South Korea to pay more, nor how Seoul will react — it could end up telling the Americans to leave or stoke anti-U.S. sentiment.
You can read more at the link, but considering the access to advanced technology and training that the ROK receives from USFK, asking for $1.2 billion a year is a reasonable request in my opinion.
