Category: US-ROK Alliance

The New York Times recently published an article on the THAAD protests in Seongju. Despite a long article it shares nothing new and really doesn’t provide deep insight into what is actually happening with this issue:

“Now, if there is war, our village will become the first target because of that machine up there,” she said impatiently.

The “machine” Ms. Do was referring to is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, a powerful radar and missile-interceptor battery also known as Thaad. Five years ago, it was brought to this hamlet about 135 miles southeast of Seoul by the United States, infuriating China and prompting it to unleash economic retaliation. ​

Washington and Seoul said the weapons system was crucial in their defense against North Korean aggression. China argued that the United States was using North Korea as an excuse to expand its military presence in the region and make implicit threats toward its most formidable competitor. Villagers like Ms. Do and their supporters, including labor activists, have tended to agree.

Now, the Thaad system, located in an area once known for its melon patches, has become a symbol of the broader challenges facing South Korea as it ​tries to strike a balance between China, the country’s largest trading partner, and the United States, its main security ally.

New York Times

You can read more at the link, but what the article misses is that the THAAD was rapidly deployed into South Korea during the Park Guen-hye administration. The Korean left opposed THAAD simply because it was Park administration initiative. If the THAAD battery was deployed by a President on the Korean left, these protests would not have grown to what they have become. Of course much of the protests were fed by claims the radar would poison crops and give people cancer which all proved untrue. The claims are further ridiculous when one considers that Patriot and Green Pine batteries used for missile defense are deployed all around Korea and there are no protests about them.

Since this was an initiative of President Park the usual suspects in the Korean left came out and protested it. When President Moon took power he took a middle ground of allowing the THAAD to remain where it was because he knew it was providing a needed missile defense capability to the country and did not want to harm the U.S.-ROK alliance by trying to remove it. However, to appease his left wing base he allowed the protesters to continue to block the road forcing the U.S. and ROK military personnel to use helicopters to access the base.

Seeing how THAAD was a wedge issue between the Korean right and left, the Chinese decided to jump in and further inflame this issue by claiming the THAAD was harmful to their national security. They used the false claims the radar was intended to spy on them even though it is pointed towards North Korea, not China. Additionally the U.S. has other radars and assets in the area to monitor China which they say nothing about. The Chinese hoped to pressure Moon to remove THAAD in order to harm the U.S.-ROK alliance. To President Moon’s credit he did not take the bait from the Chinese and allowed the THAAD battery to remain. To appease the Chinese he made the “Three No’s” promise. Despite the promise the Chinese government continued to take economic retaliatory measures against South Korea which continues to this day.

Now with a President from the Korean right in power he has changed policy and has been removing the protesters to allow U.S. and ROK military personnel access to the base by road. This road access will allow much needed facility improvements to enhance the quality of life for U.S. and ROK troops stationed at the base. The few protesters that remain now are simply there for NIMBY reasons and the usual protesters from the Korean left have largely abandoned them as they search for another wedge issue to attack the Korean right with.

It will be interesting to see what increasing military cooperation with Japan will do for President Yoon’s extremely low polling numbers:

South Korea said its military will strengthen security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, including the deployment of “U.S. strategic assets,” after Kim Jong Un’s North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles Sunday.

The provocations, in violation of United Nations Security Council’s resolutions, will strengthen sanctions against North Korea, worsen public welfare and make the regime “very unstable,” South Korea’s National Security Council said in a statement after an urgent meeting to brief President Yoon Suk Yeol. The missiles were launched from the Munchon area in Kangwon province between 1:48 a.m. and 1:58 a.m., the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in an email.

The missile tests add to 10 launched by North Korea over the past two weeks. The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group made a U-turn after one of those missiles flew over Japan. The group returned to waters off the Korean Peninsula and held missile defense exercises with naval forces from Japan and South Korea on Thursday.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but it appears the ROK is overselling sanctions making the regime “very unstable”. The Kim regime has shown it knows how to whether sanctions with help from China and Russia plus their criminal activities.

Tensions are once again heating up on the Korean peninsula after North Korea’s latest missile test:

North Korea fired a missile that flew farther than any before — 4,600 kilometers (2,850 miles) — and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned of a “resolute” response.  
   
The intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) travelled over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean, reaching an apex of 1,000 kilometers and a terminal speed of Mach 17 in its final re-entry phase, according to South Korean military authorities.  
   
The test triggered a nationwide emergency alert in Japan — known as a J-Alert — for the first time in five years.  

Joong Ang Ilbo

Here is what the US & ROK did in response which I don’t think the Kim regime is going to be too impressed by:

In response to the test, a South Korean F-15K fighter fired two Joint Direct Attack Munition (Jadam) guided bombs at a firing range on the unhabited island of Jikdo in the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, the South Korean military said.  
   
The JCS said that the F-15K dropped the Jadam bombs on Jikdo following air drills with U.S. warplanes in a joint strike group consisting of four South Korean F-15Ks and four U.S. F-16 fighters. 

I guess we will see in the coming days if the US, ROK, and Japan respond even more strongly in other ways. If so this will continue to increase tensions which is probably what the Kim regime wants to justify their long anticipated nuclear test.

It will be interesting to see if the Biden administration tries to make any changes to the IRA to address Korean concerns:

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris promised President Yoon Suk-yeol on Thursday that the United States will look for solutions to South Korea’s concerns about the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as the law is implemented, the presidential office said.

Harris conveyed the position after Yoon reiterated South Korea’s concerns that the law will hurt Korean carmakers by giving tax credits only to electric vehicles assembled in North America, according to deputy presidential spokesperson Lee Jae-myoung.

“President Yoon delivered our concerns about the U.S. IRA, saying he hopes the two countries will closely cooperate to produce a mutually satisfying agreement in the spirit of the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement,” Lee said during a press briefing.

“In response, Vice President Harris said not only she, but also President Biden, are well aware of South Korea’s concerns and will look into it carefully in order to find ways to resolve South Korea’s concerns in the process of the law’s implementation,” he said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It has been five years and the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan is back conducting exercises with the ROK Navy in response to a North Korean provocation:

The USS Ronald Reagan, the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered supercarrier, will arrive at the southeastern port city of Busan later this week for joint military drills with South Korea amid mounting nuclear threats from North Korea. 

According to military sources Sunday, the Nimitz-class supercarrier will take part in combined exercises with the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy in the East Sea this month for the first time since 2017, when Pyongyang conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test.

The move comes immediately after the two allies issued a joint statement Friday (local time), after holding a meeting in Washington to denounce the North for passing a law earlier this month to grant its military the right to use nuclear weapons preemptively. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also called the nation’s nuclear status “irreversible,” leaving no room for negotiation on the issue.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

North Korea was surprisingly quiet during the recent Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, but I don’t expect them to be quiet for much longer and apparently neither does the Pentagon:

The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), a forward-deployed aircraft carrier, will arrive at the South Korean port city of Busan later this month amid signs of a possible nuclear test by North Korea, government sources said Friday.

According to the sources, Seoul and Washington are discussing plans to conduct bilateral exercises on the East Sea after the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier arrives in Busan.

The Reagan is expected to stay in the country for about a week to participate in the military drill with the South Korean Navy, as well as friendly and goodwill events.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This live fire is being executed as part of the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise:

South Korea and the United States staged a large-scale combined live-fire exercise near the inter-Korean border Wednesday, in a vivid display of the allies’ military might amid North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

A centerpiece of the Combined Joint Fires Coordination Exercise (CJFCX) took place in Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, about 30 kilometers south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), involving high-morale troops, battle tanks, mortars, howitzers and warplanes to boot.

Yonhap News Agency and three other news outlets were given access to observe the four-day exercise set to run through Thursday, as the allies are pushing to beef up combined drills amid concerns about possible North Korean provocations like a nuclear test.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It will be interesting to see what provocation North Korea decides to go with in response to this military exercise:

During the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, there will be 13 combined field training programs, as well as a full operational capability assessment, a key procedure for the envisioned conditions-based transfer of wartime operational control from Washington to Seoul.

The same day, the government also started the annual Ulchi civil defense training program, led by government employees for the next four days.

“We can protect the lives of the people and national security only through realistic drills. Preserving peace on the Korean Peninsula is built on our airtight defense preparedness,” President Yoon Suk-yeol said at a Cabinet meeting at his office in Seoul. “Today’s war is different from the one of the past. It may involve cyberattacks on key facilities such as ports, airports and (the manufacturing plants of) semiconductors or attacks on the supply chains of important materials, with the aim of neutralizing our war capabilities.”

In fact, during the last five years, the two allies’ regular military drills were canceled or reduced to just computer simulations, while North Korea tested new types of weapons from their arsenal as part of its weapons development program, including hypersonic as well as short-range, intermediate-range and long-range ballistic missiles, which require new contingency plans and new drills.

Although the two allies made it clear that the Ulchi Freedom training exercise is defensive in nature, it is expected to draw an aggressive reaction from the North, which is likely to be ready for its seventh nuclear weapons test.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It seems the U.S. and the ROK are getting their responses coordinated for whatever provocation the North Koreans have planned to execute during the upcoming Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise later this month:

South Korea and the United States are set to hold regular defense talks here next week, informed sources said Sunday, as the allies are striving to reinforce security coordination amid North Korea’s military threats.

The biannual Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) is expected to run from Aug. 16 to 17 in Seoul, the sources said, with the allies likely to discuss joint deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.

The meeting comes amid speculation that Pyongyang has completed preparations for a nuclear test. It also comes ahead of the allies’ combined exercise, dubbed the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) training, set for Aug. 22-Sept. 1.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Mark your calendar because sometime after August 22nd when the UFS exercise begins is likely when the North Koreans will launch a major provocation such as a ICBM launch or nuclear test:

Plans to expand a combined military drill between South Korea and the United States against North Korea’s growing threats are expected to bring the Korean Peninsula back to a state of confrontation, ratcheting up cross-border tensions, Pyongyang watchers said, Monday.

The prediction comes as the allies seek to enhance their overall capabilities to deal with a possible all-out war on the peninsula through the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, scheduled for Aug. 22 to Sept. 1, according to Seoul’s defense ministry. In addition, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also threatened last week to annihilate the new South Korean administration he claimed is pursuing a U.S.-led hostile policy against the North. 

“It is inevitable that inter-Korean confrontation will deepen as North Korea has strongly responded to the combined exercise,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, also presented a similar view.

“North Korea has denounced the combined exercise, along with a dispatch of U.S. strategic assets, as a hostile policy toward the country, so the North is anticipated to vehemently respond to the drill in accordance with its leader’s pledge, which would greatly escalate tensions on the peninsula,” Park said.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.