The US Defense Secretary is in Korea to discuss the transfer of OPCON to South Korea:
In this March 17, 2021, file photo, South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook (R) and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, review honor guards ahead of their talks at the defense ministry in Seoul.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Seoul on Wednesday for annual security talks with his South Korean counterpart on the envisioned wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer, North Korean threats and the bilateral alliance.
Austin landed at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, for a three-day trip on the eve of the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the defense ministry here.
This year’s SCM comes days after Washington concluded nine months of a global defense posture review, calling for tighter cooperation with allies to confront security challenges from an increasingly assertive China and a recalcitrant North Korea.
At the SCM, Seoul’s Defense Minister Suh Wook and Austin are expected to discuss when and how to conduct the full operational capability (FOC) assessment — the second part of a three-phase program designed to verify if South Korea is ready to retake wartime OPCON.
Really the only changes between the Biden and Trump administrations is that Biden asked for less money from the ROK and largely ignored the Kim regime:
A South Korean sailor welcomes the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to Busan, South Korea, in 2017. (Jermaine Ralliford/U.S. Navy)
Most South Koreans see the alliance with the United States as stable, a dramatic increase over last year, according to an annual poll from a government-funded think tank.
The Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analysis polled 1,000 South Koreans, 67% of whom view the alliance favorably. The figure represents a “substantial” increase from last year’s 47%, and the two years prior to 2020.
“The relatively low level of stability perceived by the public during these past few years implies that they were concerned about the disharmony between [South Korean President Moon Jae-in] and the Trump administration over North Korea policies,” Hong Sukji, an institute fellow, wrote in her analysis published Tuesday.
Here is some good news, it appears the Biden administration is not going to work with the ROK on an end of Korean War peace treaty any time soon:
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., Tuesday. EPA-Yonhap
Quickly developing discussions between South Korea and the United States on declaring a formal end to the Korean War appear to have hit a snag as Washington has made it clear that it cannot accept Seoul’s proposal, at least at this time, according to diplomatic observers, Wednesday.
Since President Moon Jae-in once again floated the idea in a United Nations General Assembly speech in September, it has been gaining traction, as evidenced by six meetings occurring between South Korea’s top nuclear envoy Noh Kyu-duk and his U.S. counterpart, Sung Kim, since August.
However, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan seems to have stepped on the brakes amid the Moon administration’s push for an end-of-war declaration, Tuesday (local time).
“We may have somewhat different perspectives on the precise sequence or timing or conditions for different steps, but we are fundamentally aligned on the core strategic initiative here and on the belief that only through diplomacy are we going to really, truly be able to effectively make progress and that that diplomacy has to be effectively paired with deterrence,” Sullivan said during a press briefing.
You can read more at the link, but clearly the State Department understands that the North Koreans and the Korean left want this peace treaty in order to question the legitimacy of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. If there is peace why are U.S. troops needed? If the Kim regimes wants a peace treaty they should agree to actions that actually makes it look like they want peace. For example removing all their artillery off of the DMZ would show the seriousness of their peace overtures. If they want peace why do they need artillery to target Seoul and other metropolitan areas?
The biggest concern about South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons is the arms race it could cause in the region. However, the arms race is already happening with the North Koreans showing no signs of slowing their nuclear weapons program:
Then-U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Vincent Brooks greets South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Yongsan Garrison, South Korea, June 13, 2017.
A retired Army general who oversaw all U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula said he believed nuclear weapons would not give South Korea a strategic advantage and may instead escalate tensions to “an unnecessary degree of danger.”
Vincent Brooks, the former commander of U.S. Forces Korea and United Nations Command, spoke during a virtual roundtable discussion hosted by the Korea Defense Veterans Association on Tuesday.
He described South Korea as a “mature democracy” that had “withstood great pressures and tests,” but possessing a nuclear weapon would not help it deter threats from North Korea. In light of North Korea’s ongoing nuclear program, the subject of Seoul possessing nuclear weapons has been raised by many South Korean politicians in recent years, including primary candidates in the upcoming presidential election.
Anyone who thinks the Afghan withdrawal is a sign of a weakening US commitment to South Korea doesn’t know much about US-ROK relations:
A bipartisan pair of U.S. lawmakers said Thursday the alliance with South Korea remains strong, despite fears that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan signals weakened resolve on the Korean Peninsula.
Reps. Ami Bera, D-Calif., and Young Kim, R-Calif., gave their assessment of the alliance with South Korea during a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Bera, a co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Study Group on Korea, advised policy watchers not to read too deeply into President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.
“Korea is a totally different country — it’s one of the most developed democracies in the world,” he said. “It’s certainly a developed economy. We have a long geopolitical, strategic relationship and our security commitments are extremely important to members of Congress in a bilateral way.”
You can read more at the link, but I don’t see the ROK president fleeing with a helicopter full of cash and the ROK Army completely folding against any North Korean attack. Unlike the Afghan military, the ROK military is professional, motivated, and will fight.
Rep. Song Young-gil, head of the ruling Democratic Party, speaks during a party meeting at the National Assembly in Seoul, wednesday
Rep. Song Young-gil, chairman of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), Wednesday, struck back at tweets by a Washington Post columnist saying that South Korea would be like Afghanistan if the U.S. forces leave the Korean Peninsula.
In addition, he added that Seoul needs to take advantage of the Afghanistan crisis to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces from Washington.
On Monday (local time), Marc Thiessen, a former speechwriter for former U.S. President George W. Bush, tweeted, “If South Korea were under this kind of sustained assault, they would collapse just as quickly without US support. There’s virtually no American ally who could defend themselves without us.”
You can read more at the link, but the ROK military will fight and not capitulate like the Afghan government that was corrupt and unpopular. South Korea is a developed democracy with a first world military with equipment far better than anything North Korea has. There is no way the ROK military would abandon their posts and rush to Osan Airbase to cling to fleeing C-17’s.
The waffling by the Moon administration on the upcoming CCPT military drill continues:
U.S. military vehicles are on standby at Camp Casey in Dongducheon, north of Seoul, on Aug. 3, 2021. (Yonhap)
Calls for postponing the regular joint summertime military drills between South Korea and the United States were gaining traction inside the ruling party Thursday amid growing hope for the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue.
“The atmosphere (here) is that postponing the military exercise might be inevitable despite some potential internal resistance,” a high-profile source from the ruling party told Yonhap News Agency a day earlier.
Talk of a possible delay or scale-down of the annual joint military exercise set to take place later this month has surfaced after the two Koreas reopened direct cross-border liaison hotlines last week.
It looks like the Moon administration is throwing out a trial balloon to see if the US is willing to cancel the upcoming joint exercise because of COVID:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un convenes a meeting of key military commanders, July 30, 2021. (Yonhap-KCNA)
President Moon Jae-in on Wednesday directed the defense minister to discuss the S. Korea-US military drills “carefully” by taking into consideration multiple factors, a hint there could be possible changes ahead for the exercises.
According to the presidential office, Moon told Minister of National Defense Suh Wook to look at the drills with the US while “taking into account factors including the pandemic.”
Moon’s comment comes a day after the nation’s spy agency told lawmakers that North Korea could respond with military provocation, and less than a week after the North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong warned South Korea against the drills in a statement.
No matter what the combined US-ROK exercise is called North Korea is still going to complain about it:
Hellicopters and vehicles are deployed at U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, during this year’s first Combined Command Post Training between South Korea and the U.S. in this March 8 photo. The two sides are yet to reveal the scale of the drill, which is anticipated to take place next month. Yonhap
North Korea has resumed its belligerent rhetoric against a combined summertime military exercise between Seoul and Washington, raising questions about whether the Kim Jong-un regime will escalate the situation with a military provocation.
Uriminzokkiri, a North Korean propaganda website, issued a warning Tuesday to South Korea and the U.S. with regard to the drill expected to be held in August, saying that “war exercises” and peace cannot exist simultaneously.
“The current instability on the Korean Peninsula is fully attributable to the warmongers among the South Korean military colluding with an outside power, and engaging in reckless, confrontational machinations,” the website commented.
Citing previous exercises including the Combined Command Post Training in March and Seoul’s participation in the cooperative maritime exercise Pacific Vanguard, it alleged “(South Korea) showed its craze for war exercises.”
