Search Results for: moon chung-in

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine opinions from experts in Germany I find to be very suspect:

Angela Kane, vice president of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna and former U.N. under-secretary-general for management and high representative for disarmament, presented a view about the evolving geopolitical landscape in East Asia that is very different from others. 

Refuting the popular belief that a new Cold War-like confrontation between two sides ― South Korea, the United States and Japan on one side and China, Russia and North Korea on the other ― has been in the making after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, Kane claims China won’t be tempted to make an enemy of the United States or any other countries. 

Like other countries, she said, China is driven by trade interests and will refrain from doing anything that may hurt its economic gains in foreign markets. 

The German expert visited Korea to join the 2022 DMZ Forum held last Friday in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. Moon Chung-in, chairman of Sejong Institute think tank, moderated the session in which Kane participated. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the economic ties that Russia had with Germany and the rest of Europe did not stop it from invading Ukraine. Likewise economic ties are not going to stop China from invading Taiwan once they have the ability to military do so and feel the diplomatic and economic consequences of an invasion can be effectively endured.

Anyone with any measure of intelligence on defense issues on the Korean peninsula could of told Bob Woodward that a nuclear strike on North Korea is not feasible:

Although Bob Woodward’s latest book, “Rage,” disclosed last month that the Donald Trump administration had reviewed firing scores of nuclear weapons at North Korea in 2017, experts said Wednesday that such an attack would not be an easy option to implement due to various reasons including possible escalation involving other countries.

In the book, based on interviews with Trump, the writer said the United States studied “OPLAN 5027” for regime change in North Korea ― the U.S. response to an attack that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons. OPLAN 5027 refers to a joint South Korea-U.S. military operation plan to respond to a North Korean invasion.

Experts on Korean Peninsula issues saw a low chance of the plan ever being carried out, because of concerns that a U.S. nuclear strike against Pyongyang could lead to accidental escalation in the region.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link about the issues a nuclear strike on North Korea would cause.

It has been long predicted that after the April elections that the Moon administration at some point would try and undermine international sanctions on North Korea. Well the President’s trial balloon specialist, Moon Chung-in is out now stating this very thing:

As an adviser to the former Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations, he attended the first, second and third inter-Korean summits in Pyongyang as a special delegate. With regard to President Moon Jae-in’s North Korea policy, the professor stressed that the President will continue to find niches for cooperation and exchanges with North Korea and be able to persuade the U.S. to allow inter-Korean economic projects. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

To Moon Chung-in, North Korea's threats to the country that has guaranteed South Korea's security for 70 years, UN & US sanctions designed to check those threats, & South Korea's eagerness to violate those sanctions are all America's fault. Nothing is ever Kim Jong-un's fault. https://t.co/OcAxuN38yX

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 24, 2019

It is being reported that President Moon’s trial balloon specialist, Moon Chung-in who has spoke about ending the US-ROK alliance and has advocated for helping North Korea evade sanctions may be picked to be the next ambassador to the United States:

Conservatives squawked Thursday about the possibility that President Moon Jae-in will send special adviser Moon Chung-in to Washington as Korea’s ambassador. 

“How can you possibly send a destroyer of the Korea-U.S. alliance to be ambassador to the United States?” Chairman Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Liberty Korea Party (LKP) said Thursday during a meeting of the party leadership.

Hwang was reacting to media reports saying that the president’s special adviser for foreign affairs and national security would be named to replace current U.S. Ambassador Cho Yoon-je. 

“This is the worst example of the president’s arrogance and high-handedness,” Hwang said. “[Moon Chung-in] even argued that the Korea-U.S. alliance must end. What will he do if he is appointed ambassador? We can never agree to such an appointment. The people won’t accept it either.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the best to think of Moon Chung-in is as the anti-John Bolton of South Korea.

So I am to believe that the Kim regime is so poor that they need the international community to provide them humanitarian assistance, but some how they have enough funds to support this?:

The 105-story Ryugyong Hotel has long been a blot on the Pyongyang skyline. The world’s tallest unoccupied building has towered over North Korea’s capital since 1987, a grand but empty pyramid entirely dark except for the lone aircraft warning light at its top.
Outsiders saw the unfinished building as the epitome of failure, while people inside the country took care to rarely mention it at all.
That is, until light designer Kim Yong Il made the building once again the talk of the town.
In a brilliant flip of the script, the Ryugyong has been reborn as a symbol of pride and North Korean ingenuity.
For several hours each night, the building that doesn’t have electricity inside becomes the backdrop of a massive light show in which more than 100,000 LEDs flash images of famous statues and monuments, bursts of fireworks, party symbols and political slogans.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but someone should ask Bart Vermeiren from the Red Cross and the Blue House’s Moon Chung-in what they thinks of this.

Expect more articles like this in the future out of South Korea in an effort to try and pressure the Trump administration to drop sanctions against North Korea:

“We cannot go further,” said Moon Chung-in, an influential adviser to the South Korean president. “Why? Because of the sanctions regime.”

There is growing frustration that a slow pace on sanctions could dash renewed hopes for a connection.

“It’s so stressful that the United States is so controlling,” said Song Young-gil, a South Korean politician who recently inspected North Korea’s railways for the president’s office.  (……)

But while a west coast railroad would connect political capitals, an east coast line through Jejin would be important for two key areas of Moon’s plans for cooperation with North Korea: trade and tourism.

Following existing tracks, this line would start at Busan, South Korea’s second-largest city and one of the world’s busiest seaports. Train service would run through Jejin and on into North Korea, passing through the Mount Kumgang tourist zone and then Wonsan, a weapons-industry hub converted into a beach resort. The service would continue to Hamhung, an industrial city and the second largest in North Korea.

Eventually, it would reach Rason, an ice-free seaport close to North Korean natural resources. From there, travelers would go on to the Russian border, where there are links to the Russian seaport of Vladivostok and beyond. In theory, a train could continue to Europe on what’s been dubbed the “Iron Silk Railroad.  [Washington Post]

You can read more at the link, but this is why South Korea wants the sanctions dropped.  North Korea has a number of tourism projects on their East Coast ready for ROK investment and tourists to create a cash cow for the Kim regime.  The only thing stopping this are the sanctions.  In the article South Korean politicians say that if the US drops the sanctions this will give Kim Jong-un the leverage he needs to get his military to give up its nukes.

Probably the most laughable line in the article is that South Korea experts told the Washington Post that the train line could open up North Korea politically.  The Kim regime is not going to agree to do anything that will threaten the stability of their regime.  Any tours into North Korea will be highly controlled just like all the other foreign tours into North Korea currently are.

I guess we will see what happens, but expect the South Korean government and their media allies to continue to put pressure on the Trump administration to drop the sanctions on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return.

It looks like the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises that are reportedly scheduled for next month will occur, but the ROK government wants them scaled down and low key as part of their “maximum prudence” strategy:

The allies delayed the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills, originally scheduled for February, to prevent possible tension with North Korea ahead of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. North Korea also held a low-key military parade on the eve of the Olympics in an apparent gesture of reconciliation.

Downsizing the drills is the most probable scenario for Seoul to maintain the ongoing mood for dialogue with Pyongyang.

North Korea has demanded the U.S. and South Korea suspend the drills for good, threatening to take “stern” countermeasures against the move.

The government, however, is likely to resume the drills as planned in April, as the U.S. has expressed a strong willingness to conduct the exercises right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.

“There is little chance of the delay or suspension of the joint exercises,” Moon Chung-in, special adviser to President Moon Jae-in, said in a seminar in Washington, Tuesday.

Pyongyang is likely to lodge a vehement protest even against toned-down annual drills, so he said the thing is how to proactively deal with the reaction from the North.

He said President Moon will feel like he is walking on egg shells, taking an approach of “maximum prudence” on North Korea unlike maximum pressure from the U.S.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I guess time will tell if maximum prudence will become maximum appeasement at some point.

The Steve Bannon of the President Moon administration may be putting out a trial balloon of the North Korea policy the ROK President may ultimately move towards:

Meanwhile President Moon has declared a commitment to avoiding war no matter what, and last week Moon Chung-in, his special envoy for unification issues, approvingly stated that many South Koreans are ready to decouple the alliance in order to keep the peace. The Yonsei professor also renewed his opposition to the stationing of THAAD and called for recognition of the North as a nuclear power. While claiming not to speak for the president, despite his special status, he made sure to add that many people in the Blue House agree with him.

Let there be no doubt that Professor Moon is saying what President Moon would say if Kim Jong Un could just bring himself to sit quietly for a month or two. The envoy’s apparent function (his famous bluntness precluding any traditionally diplomatic one) is to habituate a domestic audience to messages the Blue House will issue in due course.  [B.R. Myers]

I highly recommend reading the entire article by ROK Drop favorite B.R. Myers at the link.  However, is anyone else seeing a possible perfect storm of events that could lead to a massive shake up in the US-ROK alliance?

It looks like the Moon administration is still pushing for Sunshine Policy 2.0 and a peace treaty with North Korea:

South Korea may consult with the United States about scaling back joint military exercises and deployment of American strategic weapons if North Korea suspends nuclear and missile activities, an adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Friday.

Moon Chung-in, a foreign affairs scholar and special presidential adviser, made the remark during a Wilson Center seminar in Washington, saying President Moon has proposed the idea.

“He proposed two things. One, if North Korea suspends its nuclear and missile activities, then we may consult with the United States to (on) scaling down ROK-US joint exercises and training. I think what he has in mind is we may scale down deployment of American strategic weapons over the Korean Peninsula,” the adviser said.

“Another one is linking North Korea’s denuclearization to creation of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.  (……..)

During the seminar, the adviser said that President Moon pursues “incremental, comprehensive and fundamental” denuclearization with North Korea, beginning with a freeze on its nuclear and missile programs and a verifiable dismantlement of its nuclear facilities and materials.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but here is my view on a freeze deal.  Any freeze deal should not include a peace treaty and only include the scaling down of US-ROK military exercises.  A peace treaty should only be offered in return for the complete dismantlement of their nuclear and ICBM programs which we know they will never do.

The freeze deal should then have strong language in it that any non-compliance by North Korea opens them to a kinetic strike to ensure compliance.  Including language that includes the use of force to ensure compliance gives the US world opinion on its side if it needs to strike North Korea.  It additionally puts pressure on China to ensure that Pyongyang is complying with the deal to avoid the use of force being used against North Korea.