Search Results for: musudan

If North Korea continues with their heavy flight testing schedule this seems like it could be a realistic estimate:

North Korea’s missile launch was a “partial success” that suggests the provocative country could have a road-mobile ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by early next decade, a U.S. think tank says.

After failing in four previous tries, the North fired back-to-back Musudan missiles in just over two hours Wednesday. The first was considered another failure, but the second flew 620 to 880 miles high before falling into the Sea of Japan.

The actual distance traveled — 250 miles — was well short of its potential range that would put it within range of Japan and U.S. bases in the region. Experts said the missile was fired at a high angle to avoid provoking Japan, but the ability to achieve that altitude shows that the North Koreans are making technical progress.

The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, in its 38north.org blog, called the test a “partial success.” But it noted that six tests since mid-April despite repeated failures suggest the Musudan is not the North’s long-term focus.

“This isn’t so much an engineering program so much as an exercise in tossing a coin or rolling a die until it comes up with the result they like,” analyst John Schilling wrote in Thursday’s post.

However, he said, it was the first time the Musudan’s engine, which is shared by North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, was flight tested. Previous tests either crashed or exploded prematurely.

“This partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade,” he said.
“We still don’t expect them to have those missiles operational before 2020, but early flight testing by that date is increasingly likely,” he added.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

I would like to see him try because Japan and Okinawa already have Patriot and Aegis missile defenses while THAAD was deployed to Guam specifically to defend against the Musudan missile threat.  I will be more concerned if they successfully develop an submarine launched ballistic missile capability:

Leader Kim Jong-Un threatened US military bases across the Pacific after North Korea’s test of a powerful new missile triggered emergency UN Security Council talks on curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.

Kim, who personally monitored Wednesday’s Musudan missile test, applauded a “great event” that significantly bolstered the North’s pre-emptive nuclear attack capability, the official KCNA news agency reported.

“We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theatre,” Kim was quoted as saying.

A Korean-language version of the same report had Kim referring to “the American bastards.”

The Musudan has a theoretical range of anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres (1,550 to 2,500 miles), with the upper estimate covering US military bases as far away as Guam.

After a string of failures in recent months, North Korea tested two Musudans on Wednesday, one of which flew 400 kilometres into the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

KCNA said the missile had been fired at a high angle to simulate its full range, and had reached a maximum height of more than 1,400 kilometres.

The test “marked an important occasion in further strengthening the nuclear attack capacity of our state,” Kim said.  [AFP]

You can read more at the link, but this picture released by North Korea shows how much Kim Jong-un had invested in the successful development of the Musudan:

These two looked happier than Lebron James winning the NBA Championship.

In the least surprising news of the day, the North Korean military commander responsible for their ballistic missile program has been removed after repeated failures of their Musudan and submarine launched ballistic missiles:

The North Korean military commander responsible for the country’s recent botched missile launches was removed from the ruling party’s central military commission, the results of the party congress showed Tuesday.

The name of Gen. Kim Rak-gyom, the chief commander of the North Korean military’s strategic forces in charge of missile operations, was omitted when the North released the list of the reshuffled Central Military Commission at the closure of the congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

Along with Kim, other officials were let go, which caused a downsizing of the commission to a 12-member body.

South Korean military officials said the move may have been punishment for the back-to-back failures of the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

“We are paying close attention to the exclusion of strategic forces commander Kim Rak-gyom from the Central Military Commission,” one official here said. “We need to study further personnel decisions, but the likelihood is that Kim may have been held accountable for (the failed launches).”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I would have to think that this has to be one of the least desirable command jobs in the North Korean military.

In an effort to probably save face after their failed Musudan test the North Koreans have now launched an submarine launched ballistic missile that may have failed as well.  Unlike the Musudan test though that may have blown up at the launch site this test did at least go 30 kilometers before possibly failing, so they did get some data from the launch to continue to improve the missile.  An SLBM is particularly dangerous because a submarine can appear anywhere and launch which makes missile defense especially challenging:

North Korea launched what appeared to be a ballistic missile from a submarine in the East Sea Saturday, the South Korean military said.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said North Korea fired a projectile that it believes was a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) around 6:30 p.m. The JCS said it is keeping close tabs on the North Korean military while maintaining its readiness posture.

The JCS added that the missile flew for only about 30 kilometers, well short of the minimum SLBM range of 300 km.

Separately, a South Korean government source said the SLBM’s engine ignited after it was ejected from a 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine but it only traveled a short distance.

“This projectile, which is believed to be an SLBM, was airborne for a couple of minutes,” the source added.

Last month, a U.S. news report claimed that North Korea had conducted a ground test of an SLBM, the KN-11. The Washington Free Beacon said the test on March 16 involved an ejection test of the KN-11 from a canister at Sinpo shipyard on the North’s eastern coast.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Really nothing new here because reports of North Korea being able to target the US have persisted for years despite the fact they have never test fired one of their KN-08 missiles to prove it:

“North Korea has an extensive ballistic missile force that could strike South Korea, Japan, and US military bases in Asia,” the report states. “Pyongyang has deployed at least 400 Scud short-range tactical ballistic missiles, 300 No-Dong medium-range missiles, and 100 to 200 Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles.”

The longest-range missile, the Taepo Dong 2, is still in development. However, if deployed, the missile is believed to be nuclear capable if North Korea ever succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads.

The most serious of North Korea’s missile threats comes from the country’s KN-08 missile.  The KN-08 is a road-mobile intercontinental missile, meaning Pyongyang can move the launch system throughout the country. In contrast, other long-range missiles must be fired from stationary launch pads.

“It’s the relocatable target set that really impedes our ability to find, fix, and finish the threat,” Adm. Bill Gortney, the commander of NORAD, told reporters in April 2015. “And as the targets move around and we if don’t have the persistent stare and persistent [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] that we do not have over North Korea at this time, that relocatable nature makes it very difficult for us to counter it.”

Heritage notes that Gortney also said in April 2015 that the KN-08 “is operational today. Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland.”   [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link.