A ROK Drop favorite, the reporter and author Andrew Salmon offers some perspective about claims of an imminent strike on North Korea:
Two weeks ago, I dined with a rather interesting visitor to Seoul. An ex-military officer, he assesses geopolitical risk for a global bank, and had been put in touch with your columnist by a mutual acquaintance. We compared notes on various peninsula-related matters.
He told me that several multinational banks and companies were quietly dusting off and reviewing plans to evacuate expatriates from South Korea in the event of a crisis. This raised my eyebrows. I live at ground zero ― central Seoul ― but had sensed no unusual tension.
These concerns, the gentleman explained, stem not from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ― a largely predictable quantity ― but from neophyte US President Donald Trump. Some fear that the mercurial POTUS is mulling military action against the North ― fears buttressed by his secretary of state’s comments that “all options” are on the table.
Our dinner took place prior to Trump’s warning that the U.S. would deal with North Korea independently of China, and before the U.S. Navy devastated a Syrian air base with a cruise missile barrage.
Since then, doom merchants have gone ballistic and media pundits are suffering from a near-terminal attack of the vapors.
“Trump wants war to divert attention from domestic failings!” quaver some. “The Syrian strike is a work-up for a North Korea operation!” simper others. “If Trump hits North Korea, Kim will invade South Korea, and/or retaliate with nukes!” gasp yet others. Even my mother (!) called from the UK to warn me.
Let’s calm down, man up and take account. [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but basically Salmon discusses that what is new here is the Trump factor; everything else has happened before with out a war starting. However, if a strike does happen North Korea’s reaction will likely be less than expected because if they to too far it could lead to regime change.