This photo provided by the North Korean government shows military exercise at an undisclosed location in North Korea on Sunday, March 29, 2020. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
There is a lot of analysis going on right now in regards to what the Iranian missile strike will lead to:
Iran responded to the United States’ killing of its top military official, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, by firing over a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. military facilities in Iraq Tuesday night.
The move is likely to stoke fear of a war between the U.S. and Iran, but retired Col. Stephen Ganyard, a former fighter pilot and ABC News military analyst, said that what happens next will really depend on the damage incurred by the missiles, which were fired at the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq.
“It depends on what they hit. If they hit nothing, then the situation may de-escalate. If they hit something substantial and if they hurt Americans, then they can expect this will lead to a significant U.S. retaliation,” said Ganyard.
It is being reported that the missile strike did not hurt any Americans which leads me to conclude that the attack was carefully planned to try and not hurt anyone. If the Iranians gave a lot of indications and warnings of an impending attack this would give the people at each location time to shelter in hardened structures. Additionally if the strikes hit on the perimeter of the bases that would reduce the risk of casualties as well.
I believe the Iranians calculated that if they killed any Americans President Trump would have to respond forcefully. Now with little damage to show for the missile attack it gives the U.S. President reason to not respond forcibly while allowing the Iranians to save face. Ironically this missile attack is likely a deescalation attempt by the Iranians.
However, what I am most interested in is what will the North Koreans learn from this missile attack? I have always believed that if a pre-emptive strike was taken against North Korea’s nuclear or missile related facilities the Kim regime would respond with ballistic missile strikes against U.S. military bases in South Korea. If President Trump does not respond strongly to the Iranian missile attack, this could signal to the Kim regime that such a strategy could be feasible as long as Americans are not killed.
That would be a difficult feat to pull off considering how densely populated South Korea is around U.S. military bases compared to the two bases in Iraq. However, if a U.S. airstrike killed North Korean soldiers or civilians they could justify the killing of U.S. military servicemembers in such a retaliatory strike.
Unlike the two bases in Iraq, U.S. military bases in South Korea do have missile defense battery’s to protect them. This will help mitigate any attack, but no missile defense is 100% effective if North Korea is committed to massing fires on one location.
As far ROK nationals killed or injured I think the Kim regime cares less about because they don’t feel the Blue House would push for forceful retaliation and they could just blame the death of the ROK nationals on the U.S. for conducting the pre-emptive strike. The Korean left would assuredly promote this rationale and likely be protesting the U.S. after any such attack.
So whatever response comes from the Trump administration after the Iranian missile attack, North Korea will assuredly be closely watching to inform any future response plans they may have.
How can the ROK defend NK’s undisclosed operational missile bases? For the sake of “fake diplomacy”? Just read the UN Security Council resolutions —which ban ALL ballistic missiles from NK. Seriously, how contorted can these rationalizations for NK weapons possession get?? https://t.co/qif9Ogwfzq
President Moon said KJU is not deceiving anyone because he never agreed to close SRBM bases, and they aren't related to ICBMs or IRBMs. Which means he's ok with NK pointing SRBMs at SKorea.
I love this feeling of schadenfreude watching Moon make a total ass of himself. https://t.co/niYIL7VHhE
— John Lee (The Korean Foreigner) (@koreanforeigner) November 13, 2018
👇1. Exactly what I told @washingtonpost@mradamtaylor but this part of my quote didnt make it in story (it's ok, it happens; @ArmsControlWonk said it but slightly differently). NK is doing what KJU ordered it to do in Jan 1 – mass produce missiles and nuke warheads… https://t.co/EIxd86U2X2
Like I said when this story initially broke, next someone is going to point out that the Kim regime still has artillery pointed at Seoul like it is some big revelation:
A satellite photo, taken by DigitalGlobe on March 28, 2018, and provided by Reuters, shows the Sakkanmol missile operation base in North Korea. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s presidential office on Tuesday played down a new report on North Korea’s “undisclosed” missile sites, saying the state intelligence communities of South Korea and the United States earlier acquired relevant information.
Cheong Wa Dae added that it’s going too far to call the North’s continued activity a “great deception” given that it has no specific agreement to dismantle or disclose the facilities mentioned in the report issued by Beyond Parallel, a group at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The group said it has located 13 out of an estimated 20 missile operating bases undeclared by the secretive communist regime.
“The dispersed deployment of these bases and distinctive tactics employed by ballistic missile units are combined with decades of extensive camouflage, concealment and deception practices to maximize the survival of its missile units from pre-emptive strikes and during wartime operations,” the report said. [Yonhap]
You can read more a the link, but the South Korean government has basically took a nothing to see here, this is just business as usual approach to the news.
I really hope no one is surprised by any of this; next someone will take notice that the artillery that threatens Seoul is still in place:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects a constructions site of Yangdeok, in this undated photo released on October 31, 2018 by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA/via REUTERS
A U.S. think tank said on Monday it had identified at least 13 of an estimated 20 undeclared missile operating bases inside North Korea, underscoring the challenge for American negotiators hoping to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
In reports released by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, researcher Joseph Bermudez said maintenance and minor infrastructure improvements have been observed at some of the sites, despite the ongoing negotiations.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to work toward denuclearization at their landmark June summit in Singapore, but the agreement was short on specifics and negotiations have made little headway.
Shortly after that summit, Trump tweeted that “there is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” [Reuters]
You can read the rest at the link, but the plan all along for the Kim regime was to get a peace treaty signed and sanctions dropped for little to nothing in return. As long as the sanctions remain in place it is still not a complete win for the Kim regime.
Via a reader tip comes news that the US media is trying to make big news out of the fact that the North Koreans are continuing to develop missiles:
U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.
Newly obtained evidence, including satellite photos taken in recent weeks, indicates that work is underway on at least one and possibly two liquid-fueled ICBMs at a large research facility in Sanumdong, on the outskirts of Pyongyang, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe classified intelligence. [MSN]
I don’t know why anyone would consider this big news? The North Koreans never agreed to stop missile development. The only thing agreed to was to work towards denuclearization. The definition of what denuclearization means is still be negotiated.
Not everyone is surprised by this news though:
Several U.S. officials and private analysts said the continued activity inside North Korea’s weapons complex is not surprising, given that Kim made no public promise at the summit to halt work at the scores of nuclear and missiles facilities scattered around the country.
The North Koreans “never agreed to give up their nuclear program,” said Ken Gause, a North Korea expert at the Center for Naval Analysis. And it is foolish to expect that they would do so — at the outset of talks, he said.
Mr. Gausse may be right about this not be surprising, but here is where I believe he makes an incorrect assessment:
“Regime survival and perpetuation of Kim family rule” are Kim’s guiding principles, he said. “The nuclear program provides them with a deterrent in their mind against regime change by the United States. Giving up the nuclear capability will violate the two fundamental centers of gravity in the North Korean regime.”
The nuclear program’s main purpose in my opinion was not to prevent regime change. The North’s conventional threat, mainly the artillery batteries located along the DMZ has prevented any regime threatening attacks for decades despite deadly provocations by the Kim regime over many decades.
Not everyone is fooled by the Kim regime’s intentions:
“We have this backward. North Korea is not negotiating to give up their nuclear weapons,” Lewis said. “They are negotiating for recognition of their nuclear weapons. They’re willing to put up with certain limits, like no nuclear testing and no ICBM testing. What they’re offering is: They keep the bomb, but they stop talking about it.”
The further analysis to this is that the Kim regime needs the nuclear weapons and a delivery system to threaten the United States to begin the negotiations that will lead to a peace treaty and eventual withdrawal of US troops. The removal of USFK is needed in order to realize the Kim regime’s ultimate goal of a confederation. They needed a left wing administration in charge of the ROK and nuclear weapons to accomplish this goal, and they now have both.
So does this mean that the US Fires Brigade will no longer be needed?:
South Korea plans to set up a new guided missile unit that can take down North Korea‘s long-range artillery sites.
Local broadcaster KBS reported that the South Korean army will combine its first and third military headquarters to launch a new ground operation command in October.
Under the new command, an artillery force will be established and armed with tactical ground-to-ground guided missiles that are capable of striking large targets within a short period of time.
A single launch pad can fire four missiles in a matter of seconds, with the rockets capable of traveling more than 93 miles.
Equipped with a precision guidance function, the missiles are said to be ideal for targeting North Korea’s long-range artillery concentrated along the military demarcation line.
Experts say the artillery brigade will also be able to curb enemy threats at an early stage and thermobaric weapons attached onto the warheads could potentially incinerate everything inside a targeted mineshaft. [UPI]
