Here is what Chinese expert on North Korea, Yang Xiyu thinks about the possibility of Kim Jong-un denuclearizing:
Yang Xiyu
Yang Xiyu, one of China’s leading experts on North Korea, said that Mr. Kim was clearly trying to repair the North’s deeply strained relations with Beijing, its traditional ally and benefactor, while opening new ties with its enemy South Korea.
Even so, Mr. Yang said, that did not signal that Mr. Kim was willing to give up his nuclear arsenal, though he has told South Korean envoys that he was prepared to discuss the possibility.
“He is starting a new game where he could make concessions on denuclearization,” Mr. Yang said. “At most, he will cut the grass, but he will not pull out the roots.” [New York Times]
If Kim Jong-un meets with President Trump and does not make any serious offer to denuclearize than Kim better be ready for if the Trump administration decides to come back with a bottle of Roundup to kill the roots.
It is definitely yellow dust season again in South Korea:
Korea was blanketed with the worst toxic smog so far this year over the weekend, forcing many people to cancel outdoor activities.
“Without rain or winds, accumulated pollutants from outside and inside the country caused a high density of fine dust,” the Environment Ministry said.
As of 1 p.m. on Sunday, the concentration of ultrafine or PM2.5 dust particles was “very bad” at 101 ㎍/㎥ and higher in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, and North Chungcheong Province. The fine dust density went even higher in most regions on Sunday.
The ministry decided to implement emergency measures for the Seoul metropolitan area for the fourth time this year as the fine dust density exceeded 50 ㎍/㎥ in Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi as of 5 p.m. Sunday and is expected to surpass the level again on Monday.
Some 27,000 civil servants in the Seoul area are only allowed to drive cars with even number plates on Monday. [Chosun Ilbo]
I doubt the car restriction on the civil servants would do much of anything to the fine dust level. I am willing to bet that President Moon could declare a national holiday and keep everyone at home and it would do nothing to the yellow dust level since the source of the problem largely lies across the border in China. The ROK government can’t do anything about that, so restricting a few cars at least allows the government to look like it is “doing something”.
According to the Korea Times’ intelligence sources, the North Korean train that traveled to China this week did in fact carry Kim Jong-un:
A train believed to be carrying North Korean leader Kim Jong-un leaves the Beijing Railway Station in Beijing, China, Tuesday / Reuters-Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a two-day visit to Beijing that started Monday, according to intelligence sources Tuesday.
This is the first time that Kim has taken an overseas trip and held a summit with a leader from another country since assuming power in 2011.
Kim took a train for his Beijing visit, but no detailed travel arrangements have been confirmed so far. The sources said that Kim met with the Chinese president and high-ranking officials from the Communist Party of China on the Beijing visit. The South Korean and Chinese governments have not released any official statements on the rare trip by the North Korean leader.
The visit comes at a critical time when the reclusive regime remains under growing diplomatic pressure amid heightened international sanctions imposed for the regime’s continuous nuclear and missile threats. With China also joining the global drive, relations between Beijing and Pyongyang had reached a low ebb.
The unexpected meeting between the two leaders also came a month before a planned inter-Korean summit. The North Korean leader has in recent months showed a strong willingness to improve ties with the South. On the back of the rare peace momentum on the Korean Peninsula, Kim also expanded the dialogue signal by offering to hold a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it makes sense that Kim Jong-un would meet with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping before the upcoming summits. China was one of the combatants of the Korean War and has significant interests on the Korean peninsula. China will want to have these interests addressed by North Korea prior to upcoming negotiations between the DPRK, ROK, and the US. China in turn could be influential in getting United Nations sanctions reduced since they are a member of the UN Security Council. The next few months are shaping up to be quite interesting for the Korean peninsula.
It looks like Kim Jong-un may be receiving his marching orders from the Chinese government before the upcoming summits with the ROK and US presidents:
Kim Jong-un was rumoured to be paying a secret visit to China on Monday after an armoured North Korean train pulled into Beijing under heavy guard.
Passengers were diverted and services cancelled as the train arrived in Beijing around 3pm, before video emerged showing a car driving away under police escort.
The train bears a marked similarity to one that Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il, used for his trips to China, sparking speculation that the Supreme Leader was on board.
If the news is confirmed, it would mark Kim’s first visit to any foreign country since taking the reins of power. [Daily Mail]
You can read more at the link, but considering the honor guard, VIP motorcade, and the amount of security that met the train it seems likely it is either Kim Jong-un or maybe his sister visiting North Korea to justify such a response.
The Chinese government has long sought to break up the US-ROK and US-Japan military alliances that maintains the current security framework in Northeast Asia. The THAAD issue is a perfect example of how they have created tension in the US-ROK alliance with disinformation. The comfort women issue is another issue that Beijing has weaponized to create tension between the US, Korea, and Japan:
The “comfort women” issue appears, on the surface, to be a bilateral problem between South Korea and Japan. In reality, it is deeper. The key player is increasingly not South Korea, but China, and the ultimate target is not Japan, but the United States, as the comfort women are co-opted by Beijing in its anti-American information war.
China has been waging this war since Beijing realized after the First Gulf War that it would likely be unable to the United States on the battlefield. As the document Unrestricted Warfare, published by two high-ranking Chinese military officials, makes clear, the Chinese have chosen to fight the US, and particularly the US-Japan alliance, using desinformatsiya rather than hardware and troops. (…)
Overseas Chinese groups have also pressed hard on the comfort women and Nanjing issues in the US and Canada: In San Francisco, Superior Court judges Julie Tang and Lillian Sing retired from the bench in order to co-found the Comfort Women Justice Coalition, which was ultimately successful in bringing a comfort woman statue to San Francisco. Chinese-American San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee was himself a vocal proponent of the comfort woman statue. [Asia Times]
You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if Beijing isn’t fanning the flames of the anti-base sentiment in Okinawa as well to create further tension between the US and Japan.
In other news today China has returned to having an Emperor:
China’s rubber-stamp lawmakers on Sunday passed a historic constitutional amendment abolishing presidential term limits that will enable President Xi Jinping to rule indefinitely.
The National People’s Congress’ nearly 3,000 hand-picked delegates endorsed the constitutional amendment, voting 2,958 in favor with two opposed, three abstaining and one vote invalidated.
The amendment upends a system enacted by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in 1982 to prevent a return to the bloody excesses of a lifelong dictatorship typified by Mao Zedong’s chaotic 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution. The constitution had until now limited presidents to serving only two consecutive terms. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but President Xi has pretty much made himself Asia’s Putin.
North Korea has definitely been the bright shining object of US foreign policy for decades in the Pacific region. China would definitely not benefit if North Korea suddenly was not a major preoccupation for the United States:
Picture this: thanks to a combination of diplomatic ingenuity, unique personalities and a historic willingness to see tensions in Northeast Asia disappear, President Donald J. Trump convinces North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to do the unthinkable and give up his nuclear weapons.
While we are a long way from even a meeting between the two taking place, let alone the ending of Kim’s nuclear weapons program, we can stargaze a little. If the Trump administration can somehow land the ultimate of deals, the geopolitical map would instantly be reset. America’s security, and that of its allies in Asia, would be enhanced dramatically, ridding our planet of one of its greatest security risks. Not only would President Trump deserve the Nobel Prize, but his place in history would be secure—forever.
And nothing would terrify China more. The reason, if you think about it, is obvious. The instability that Pyongyang brings to U.S. foreign policy presents to China a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to achieve many of its goals throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Remove the North Korea crisis from Asia and Washington has the economic, diplomatic, political and, most of all, military bandwidth to contain Beijing’s aspirations across Asia—and indeed, around the world. [Fox News]
You can read more at the link, but the author believes that if the North Korea crisis is resolved than that will allow the US to focus more on China’s activities in the region such as their island building campaign in the South China Sea.
Chinese President XI JINPING and I spoke at length about the meeting with KIM JONG UN of North Korea. President XI told me he appreciates that the U.S. is working to solve the problem diplomatically rather than going with the ominous alternative. China continues to be helpful!
