The timing of the recent provocations could just be coincidence, but maybe the Kim regime is trying to embarrass Chinese President Xi:
“There’s a lot of domestic politics in North Korea where this young leader who isn’t well-known, he’s not proven yet, especially has to show that he’s not in the pocket of Beijing,” said John Delury of Seoul’s Yonsei University. “I think he made the decision first to keep Hu Jintao and then (current President) Xi Jinping really at bay.”
Within months of coming to power, Kim telegraphed North Korea’s intentions by amending its constitution to proclaim itself a nuclear state. The execution of Jang in 2013 sealed Beijing’s distrust of the young leader.
“Of course the Chinese were not happy,” said a foreign diplomat in Beijing focused on North Korea. “Executing your uncle, that’s from the feudal ages.”
In an attempt to warm ties, Xi sent high-ranking Communist Party official Liu Yunshan to attend the North’s October 2015 military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Liu hand-delivered a letter from Xi praising Kim’s leadership and including congratulations not just from the Chinese Communist Party but Xi’s personal “cordial wishes” in a powerful show of respect.
Xi’s overture has been repaid with increasingly brazen actions by Pyongyang, which many observers believe are timed for maximum embarrassment to Beijing. Sunday’s nuclear test, for example, took place as China hosted a BRICS summit, while in May, the North launched a long-range missile just hours before the Belt and Road Forum, dedicated to Xi’s signature foreign policy initiative. [Reuters]
Here is the latest on the follow up actions from the Trump administration after North Korea’s weekend nuclear test:
President Donald Trump left war with North Korea on the table as an option if Pyongyang doesn’t behave after a call with China’s Xi Jinping on Wednesday that the the U.S. leader described as ‘very, very frank.’
Trump told reporters as he was leaving the White House for a tax speech outside Washington, ‘We will not be putting up with what’s happening in North Korea.’
War is ‘certainly not our first choice,’ he said in response to a shouted question, ‘but we will see what happens.’
The administration has repeatedly said it is keeping every option on the table as it grapples with the threat from North Korea. The president’s remark is likely to stir new worries, however, that Trump is actually mulling military action. [Daily Mail]
You can read more at the link, but why shouldn’t the President consider all options available to him? It is pretty clear the Chinese option is the one he is pursuing and giving a chance to work before even contemplating a military response.
So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation? Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:
North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.
In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.
The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area. [Yonhap]
Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:
South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.
“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day. [Yonhap]
The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:
The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations. [Japan Times]
Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council. I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly inspecting the loading of a hydrogen bomb onto a new intercontinental ballistic missile, according to North Korea’s state media, a claim that some outside experts doubt but one that intensifies already high levels of concern on the Korean Peninsula. [AP/YONHAP]It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:
South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!
It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:
On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.
In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.
An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.
“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.
But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”
The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said. [New York Times]
I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:
In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.
The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.
“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.
Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North. [New York Times]
With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China. However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries. Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.
Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:
China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.
In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.
North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement. [Korea Times]
Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test. The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds. It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?
It has long been suspected that the Chinese government kept close ties with Kim Jong-nam as sort of a Plan B if needed in North Korea. According to the below article Kim Jong-nam made sure a Chinese Plan B could never happen after he got word of a possible coup:
Kim Jong-nam
When Kim Jong Nam was killed with a deadly nerve agent in an airport in Malaysia in February, it may have thwarted an attempt backed by the Chinese government to overthrow his half-brother, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Citing three sources, Nikkei Asian Review reported on Monday that top government officials in China and North Korea in 2012 seriously considered a plot to remove Kim Jong Un.
Nikkei reports that Hu Jintao, China’s president at the time, met with Kim Jong Un’s uncle, who floated the idea of replacing him with his half-brother, a politically unmotivated gambler.
But because of a recent scandal involving the death of the son of one of Hu’s advisers, the Chinese leader did not immediately act.
According to the report, a top adviser to Jiang Zemin, Hu’s predecessor and rival, caught wind of the plot and informed Kim Jong Un, who in 2013 had his uncle executed and purged several officials with ties to China. [American Military News]
It is pretty amazing to me that someone from the White House would just call up a random reporter and be this open about their views, but as we have seen there is nothing conventional about Steve Bannon:
Steve Bannon
“We’re at economic war with China,” he added. “It’s in all their literature. They’re not shy about saying what they’re doing. One of us is going to be a hegemon in 25 or 30 years and it’s gonna be them if we go down this path. On Korea, they’re just tapping us along. It’s just a sideshow.”
Bannon said he might consider a deal in which China got North Korea to freeze its nuclear buildup with verifiable inspections and the United States removed its troops from the peninsula, but such a deal seemed remote. Given that China is not likely to do much more on North Korea, and that the logic of mutually assured destruction was its own source of restraint, Bannon saw no reason not to proceed with tough trade sanctions against China.
Contrary to Trump’s threat of fire and fury, Bannon said: “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.” Bannon went on to describe his battle inside the administration to take a harder line on China trade, and not to fall into a trap of wishful thinking in which complaints against China’s trade practices now had to take a backseat to the hope that China, as honest broker, would help restrain Kim.
“To me,” Bannon said, “the economic war with China is everything. And we have to be maniacally focused on that. If we continue to lose it, we’re five years away, I think, ten years at the most, of hitting an inflection point from which we’ll never be able to recover.” [The American Prospect via a reader tip]
You can read much more at the link, but in regards to threat to Seoul Mr. Bannon is correct that it continues to restrain US actions against North Korea. The fact that Bannon is willing to consider a freeze deal with North Korea in exchange for the removal of US troops I find very interesting. I think everyone pushing for the freeze deal are now going to push it even harder if they see an opening that the White House might accept it.
Bannon in the article also talks about trying to get more hawks into the administration that don’t want to play nice with China. He feels there are too many people in the government that think playing nice on trade with China will encourage them to help us with North Korea.
As far economic war with China it seems to me that a lot of the economic problems are self inflicted with the exporting of manufacturing jobs to China. I don’t know if someone can even live a modern life any more if they made a conscious decision to not buy anything made in China.
This is very interesting that the Chinese government has apparently given the US the go ahead to attack North Korea in response to a strike against US soil, but not to the extent that it leads to regime change:
China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned on Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.
The Global Times newspaper is not an official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, but in this case its editorial probably does reflect government policy and can be considered “semi-official,” experts said. (…..)
“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” it added. “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.” [Stars & Stripes]
Secretary of State Tillerson provides some context in regards to President Trump’s recent comments about North Korea:
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson played down President Donald Trump’s incendiary warning to North Korea on Wednesday, saying he was just trying to send a strong message in language its leader would understand.
Tillerson, speaking to reporters before landing in Guam, a U.S.-held Pacific island that Pyongyang threatened to strike, said he does not believe there is an imminent threat from North Korea.
“I think Americans should sleep well at night, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days,” he said.
Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea it would face “fire and fury” if it threatens the United States, prompting the nuclear-armed nation to say it was considering firing missiles at Guam.
“I think what the president was just reaffirming is that the United States has the capability to fully defend itself from any attack, and our allies, and we will do so,” Tillerson said.
The international community had a “pretty good week” with respect to North Korea, he said, citing new U.N. sanctions and strong statements coming out of a meeting of world leaders in Asia.
“In response to that, North Korea’s rhetoric is just ratcheted up, louder and louder and more threatening,” Tillerson told reporters. “So I think the president, what the president is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in language that Kim Jong Un would understand, because he doesn’t seem to understand diplomatic language.” [CNBC]
You can read more at the link, but the media is of course in full freak out mode not because of Kim Jong-un, but because of President Trump. My guess is that President Trump in an unconventional way is trying to make it clear to Kim Jong-un to not miscalculate North Korea’s response to the recent UN sanctions that were passed. Additionally I think the President may be sending a message to China to make sure North Korea does not miscalculate as well because it could lead to an outcome the Chinese leadership does not want to happen.
Remember that the Ulchi Focus Lens US-ROK military exercise is coming up later this month which is typically when a North Korean provocation cycle happens. Whatever the North Koreans have planned this year they may have to be reassess based off of President Trump’s warning.
A project to set up the donated statue of Korean independence fighter Ahn Jung-geun is underway at a park in Euijeongbu, north of Seoul, on Aug. 8, 2017. The Charhar Institute, a Chinese civic think tank, donated the statue to the city to promote friendship between the two countries. The Korean national hero shot and killed Hirobumi Ito, the first Japanese governor-general of the Korean Peninsula, at a railway station in the Chinese city of Harbin in 1909. The statue depicts Ahn pulling out a gun to shoot the governor while running toward him. (Yonhap)
I think President Trump is going to continue to be disappointed by China because nothing has changed that has made it in their interest to do anything about North Korea:
In a pair of tweets Saturday evening, President Trump said he is “disappointed” in China after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan.
“I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk,” Trump wrote, adding, “We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!” [ABC News]
