It seems the domestic political situation in China would force them to take action against any blockade of their artificial islands in the South China Sea. China’s advanced ballistic missile capability is how they would likely respond. Before any blockade is called for I hope people fully understand the risks:
Rex Tillerson
Rex Tillerson, the former Exxon chief, didn’t get where he is by being nice to China. When Beijing tried to force his company to abandon a gas exploration project in the waters off Vietnam in 2008, ExxonMobil showed it the finger. BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and several others caved to Chinese pressure. ExxonMobil is still there, drilling on a Vietnamese license in waters also claimed by China.
Is Tillerson about to do the same on behalf of the United States? On Wednesday, the secretary of state-designate seemed ready to give China the finger again. He called on the incoming Trump administration to deny China access to the seven artificial island bases it has built in the southern part of the South China Sea.
In response to a question about whether he would support a more aggressive posture in the South China Sea, he told his Senate confirmation hearing, “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.” The jaws of the Asia policy-watching community hit the floor. [Foreign Policy]
You can read the rest at the link, but the author thinks Tillerson may have misspoke and meant blockading any action by the Chinese to build a base on the Scarborough Shoal which would be less dangerous, but still quite a risky strategy to implement if China is committed to forcing the issue. It seems it would be a tough sell to the American people to risk war with China over the Scarborough Shoal.
The other wild card in all of this is what if President Duerte in the Philippines cuts a deal with China to let them build on the shoal which is claimed by the Philippines?
Militarily the Chinese have shown their displeasure with the THAAD deployment by flying bombers over South Korea’s Ieodo research station off the coast of Jeju while economically they are going after South Korean entertainment and companies operating in China:
China has stepped up efforts to hurt South Korea for its decision to allow the stationing of an advanced missile defense system on its soil with punitive measures to likely intensify going forward, experts predicted Wednesday.
The Seoul government, however, seems to have few countermeasures at its disposal, spawning concerns that it could face “costly” consequences if it fails to handle the situation in an effective manner, observers claimed.
On Tuesday, media reports showed that Chinese authorities have refused to approve imports of massive amounts of South Korean cosmetics as they are said to not meet their trade requirements. This was deemed the latest in a series of measures apparently aimed at punishing Seoul for its push to install a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery within this year.
In July, South Korea and the U.S. jointly announced a plan on the THAAD deployment, drawing strong opposition from China, which voiced concerns that the missile defense system equipped with the strong X-band radar could hurt its strategic security interest.
South Korea’s has countered that the THAAD deployment reflects critical national security interests to deal with evolving North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities.
Ever since the decision was announced, Beijing has taken thinly-veiled measures, mostly in business and cultural areas, aimed at pressuring Seoul to scrap its planned THAAD deployment.
Korea pop culture, known as hallyu, has been a major target with top Korean entertainers virtually banned from appearing on Chinese TV shows. More recently, the Chinese government rejected South Korean airlines’ plan to operate chartered flights to China ahead of the busy Chinese New Year holiday season.
“It has just begun,” said Kim Heung-kyu, political science professor at Ajou University. “On a scale of one to ten measuring China’s retaliation, the current level seems to be standing at only three. A full-blown retaliation that could have a real impact on South Korea has not started yet.” [Yonhap]
Foreign Minister: China appreciates Nigeria’s stance on the One-China principle and welcomes its moving Taiwan’s office from Abuja pic.twitter.com/Rk75Z92y5h
It looks like the Chinese are sending a message to South Korea once again that they don’t recognize their ownership of the Ieodo seamount and are still unhappy about the THAAD deployment:
The Chinese planes flew into the KADIZ near Ieodo, a submerged rock located off the southern coast of Jeju Island “several times” from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., according to the source. He said that South Korea countered by sending some 10 fighter jets including F-15Ks and KF-16s to the area.
The South Korean jets sent a warning signal to the Chinese planes, while its Air Force also delivered warning messages to the Chinese side, the source said. The Chinese planes were said to include bombers and early warning aircraft.
In 2013, South Korea expanded its own KADIZ to cover Ieodo on which it has scientific research facilities. China also includes it in its air defense identification zone. [Yonhap]
As I have said before, the installation of this statue is needlessly provocative against Japan which has apologized an offered compensation multiple times for its past wartime activities. If these activist groups really cared about sexual slavery then they would be putting up a statue in front of the Chinese embassy in Seoul in protest of the modern day sexual slavery of North Korean women in China. However, that would take real courage because China will retaliate unlike Japan that these activists know will just continue to take it:
This photo, taken on Dec. 30, 2016, shows people installing a statue of a girl representing victims of wartime sex slavery by the Japanese military in front of the Japanese Consulate in South Korea’s largest port city of Busan. (Yonhap)
A civic group installed a statue of a girl symbolizing the victims of Japan’s wartime sexual slavery in front of the Japanese Consulate in South Korea’s largest port city of Busan on Friday after the Dong Ward municipality gave its approval.
The ward municipality agreed earlier in the day to let the civic group install the statue on the sidewalk about 40 meters away from the consulate’s back door.
It marked the second of its kind established in front of Japan’s overseas diplomatic missions after one was installed in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul.
“We will not stop the civic group from installing the statue in front of the consulate if they wish to do so,” Park Sam-seok, chief of the municipality, said at a press conference. [Yonhap]
Installing this statue outside the Japanese consulate in Busan seems needlessly provocative to me. If these activist groups are so concerned about sexual slavery then they should be putting up statues in front of the Chinese embassy in Seoul in protest of the modern day sexual slavery of North Korean women in China:
Members of a civic group confront police on the sidewalk near the Japanese Consulate in South Korea’s largest port city of Busan on Dec. 28, 2016, after attempting to install a statue symbolizing victims of Japan’s wartime sexual slavery. (Yonhap)
Dozens of members from a civic group without authorization attempted to install a statue of a girl symbolizing the victims of Japan’s wartime sexual slavery in South Korea’s largest port city of Busan, but the attempt was foiled due to opposition from officials and police.
The group tried to set up the statue on the sidewalk in front of the back door of the Japanese Consulate shortly after a weekly rally around 12:30 p.m. calling for the Japanese government to offer an apology and compensation for its wartime sexual enslavement of Asian women, many of whom were Korean.
As many as 150 activists from the group staged the rally to protest a Seoul-Tokyo landmark deal in December last year in which Tokyo apologized for its colonial-era atrocities and agreed to provide 1 billion yen (US$9.4 million) for the creation of a foundation aimed at supporting the victims, euphemistically called comfort women. [Yonhap]
This is just another example of how North Korea gets around sanctions to bring in hard currency. Of course the Chinese are once again involved in making this possible:
The brightly coloured packages advertising “Walleye Pollock” at the West Market in Yanji, a Chinese city near the border with North Korea, say the fish came from China.
But 15 vendors interviewed at the market say the fish came in from North Korea to be processed, packaged and mostly sold in China. They say they buy the fish from Chinese wholesalers who deal with their North Korean counterparts at the border.
The packaged fish is also exported to countries that ban North Korean products, including South Korea, Japan and the United States, say the vendors, who are also involved in the export of their products.
“All the dried fish is from North Korea but we package it here so we say the fish is from here,” said one vendor who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Smaller packets sell for around 40 yuan ($5.80) while the bigger ones which are often given as gifts sell for at least 100 yuan.
“We export everywhere, mostly to South Korea and Japan. I’ve even exported to the U.S.,” said another vendor. “We sell some of our fish here, but we mostly export overseas.”
The official newspaper of the government of Jilin province, where Yanji is located, said in a September article that North Korean and Russian seafood is processed in a town near Yanji, before being exported to South Korea, Japan, the United States and Europe.
Reuters could not independently confirm that North Korean seafood from Yanji or nearby towns is being exported to South Korea, Japan and the United States. [Reuters]
This probably the legal answer they are giving to avoid responsibility of violating international law by stealing the US Navy drone:
The Chinese navy on Thursday seized the drone, which the Pentagon said was being operated by civilian contractors to conduct oceanic research. The U.S. lodged a formal diplomatic complaint and demanded the drone back.
Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun issued a statement late Saturday saying that a Chinese navy lifeboat discovered an unknown device in the South China Sea on Thursday.
“In order to prevent this device from posing a danger to the safe navigation of passing ships and personnel, the Chinese lifeboat adopted a professional and responsible attitude in investigating and verifying the device,” Yang said.
The statement said that after verifying that the device was an American unmanned submerged device, “China decided to transfer it to the U.S. through appropriate means.”
The U.S. said that “through direct engagement with Chinese authorities, we have secured an understanding that the Chinese will return” the unmanned underwater vehicle, according to a statement from Peter Cook, spokesman for U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter. [Associated Press]
I think this is an accurate assessment of why the Chinese stole the US Navy glider earlier this week:
As mentioned above, this incident does leave one thinking of the 2001 Hainan and 2009 USS Impeccableincidents as tests by China of an incoming administration. Indeed, Donald Trump’s recent moves on China — including his call to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and repeated criticism of Chinese economic and security practices, including in the South China Sea — may well have caught Chinese policymakers off-guard. Trump’s flirting with a revision to the U.S. “one China” policy in particular has raised particular concern in Beijing, which regards U.S. compliance with its “one China” principle as a sine qua non for diplomatic relations.
Deriving Chinese intentions from the glider-seizure is but an exercise in speculation at this point, but it isn’t unthinkable that Beijing, recognizing Trump’s highly unusual diplomatic style, is choosing to test his rhetorical response thresholds at least before he enters office. [The Diplomat]
You can read more at the link, but I like the idea of sailing a US Navy ship on a freedom of navigation patrol right through their 12 mile territorial limit around one of their artificial islands. The islands have been declared illegal by an international court so the Chinese would have no legal standing to complain. It will be interesting to see how the Obama administration responds to this; they may not want an international crisis on their hands shortly before leaving the White House.
