A makeshift pier for a cruise ship at the port of Incheon, west of Seoul, is vacant on Feb. 7, 2017, although the 114,000-ton cruise ship Costa Serena carrying Chinese tourists was originally scheduled to enter it. The rupture is apparently attributable to Beijing’s retaliation against Seoul’s decision to deploy the U.S. missile defense system, called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), on its soil by the end of the year. (Yonhap)
It seems the domestic political situation in China would force them to take action against any blockade of their artificial islands in the South China Sea. China’s advanced ballistic missile capability is how they would likely respond. Before any blockade is called for I hope people fully understand the risks:
Rex Tillerson
Rex Tillerson, the former Exxon chief, didn’t get where he is by being nice to China. When Beijing tried to force his company to abandon a gas exploration project in the waters off Vietnam in 2008, ExxonMobil showed it the finger. BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and several others caved to Chinese pressure. ExxonMobil is still there, drilling on a Vietnamese license in waters also claimed by China.
Is Tillerson about to do the same on behalf of the United States? On Wednesday, the secretary of state-designate seemed ready to give China the finger again. He called on the incoming Trump administration to deny China access to the seven artificial island bases it has built in the southern part of the South China Sea.
In response to a question about whether he would support a more aggressive posture in the South China Sea, he told his Senate confirmation hearing, “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.” The jaws of the Asia policy-watching community hit the floor. [Foreign Policy]
You can read the rest at the link, but the author thinks Tillerson may have misspoke and meant blockading any action by the Chinese to build a base on the Scarborough Shoal which would be less dangerous, but still quite a risky strategy to implement if China is committed to forcing the issue. It seems it would be a tough sell to the American people to risk war with China over the Scarborough Shoal.
The other wild card in all of this is what if President Duerte in the Philippines cuts a deal with China to let them build on the shoal which is claimed by the Philippines?
Militarily the Chinese have shown their displeasure with the THAAD deployment by flying bombers over South Korea’s Ieodo research station off the coast of Jeju while economically they are going after South Korean entertainment and companies operating in China:
China has stepped up efforts to hurt South Korea for its decision to allow the stationing of an advanced missile defense system on its soil with punitive measures to likely intensify going forward, experts predicted Wednesday.
The Seoul government, however, seems to have few countermeasures at its disposal, spawning concerns that it could face “costly” consequences if it fails to handle the situation in an effective manner, observers claimed.
On Tuesday, media reports showed that Chinese authorities have refused to approve imports of massive amounts of South Korean cosmetics as they are said to not meet their trade requirements. This was deemed the latest in a series of measures apparently aimed at punishing Seoul for its push to install a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery within this year.
In July, South Korea and the U.S. jointly announced a plan on the THAAD deployment, drawing strong opposition from China, which voiced concerns that the missile defense system equipped with the strong X-band radar could hurt its strategic security interest.
South Korea’s has countered that the THAAD deployment reflects critical national security interests to deal with evolving North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities.
Ever since the decision was announced, Beijing has taken thinly-veiled measures, mostly in business and cultural areas, aimed at pressuring Seoul to scrap its planned THAAD deployment.
Korea pop culture, known as hallyu, has been a major target with top Korean entertainers virtually banned from appearing on Chinese TV shows. More recently, the Chinese government rejected South Korean airlines’ plan to operate chartered flights to China ahead of the busy Chinese New Year holiday season.
“It has just begun,” said Kim Heung-kyu, political science professor at Ajou University. “On a scale of one to ten measuring China’s retaliation, the current level seems to be standing at only three. A full-blown retaliation that could have a real impact on South Korea has not started yet.” [Yonhap]
Foreign Minister: China appreciates Nigeria’s stance on the One-China principle and welcomes its moving Taiwan’s office from Abuja pic.twitter.com/Rk75Z92y5h
