Tag: denuclearization

Jung Pak the U.S. nuclear envoy to North Korea seems to be hinting that the U.S. is open to a deal that does not include the denuclearization of North Korea. This validates what a National Security Council spokesman put out earlier this week:

The top U.S. nuclear envoy pointed out the need Tuesday for “interim steps” to be taken on a path towards North Korea’s ultimate denuclearization, which she stressed would not happen “overnight.”

U.S. Senior Official for North Korea Jung Pak made the remarks while reiterating Washington’s “clear” goal to pursue the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. (……)

“I don’t want to prejudge that as a final step,” she said at a forum hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But I think it goes without saying that there would have to be interim steps toward ultimate denuclearization.”

Yonhap

Here is what the U.S. would focus a so called interim deal on, freezing other weapons programs that North Korea has:

“I think it is really important to acknowledge that there is a lot of weapons to be dealt with,” she said, noting the North’s efforts to develop solid-fuel ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, hypersonic capabilities and unmanned underwater vehicles.

“Given the scope of the DPRK weapons activities and its proliferation, there is a lot to work with there … It is not going to happen overnight. That’s the reality of it,” she added. DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

You can read more at the link, but in my opinion the best that can be hoped for at this point is an agreement limiting the amount of nuclear weapons North Korea has, a ban on proliferation, and an end to their ICBM program in return for dropping sanctions. 

I have been saying this for years that North Korea is never going to denuclearize and it appears U.S. negotiators may finally be understanding this:

Mira Rapp-Hooper, the U.S. National Security Council senior director for East Asia and Oceania, speaks during a forum in Seoul co-hosted by South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo newspaper and the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on March 4, 2024.

The United States seeks dialogue with North Korea, including on mitigating the risk of an inadvertent conflict on the Korean Peninsula, a National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson said Monday, stressing its goal for the “complete” denuclearization of the peninsula remains unchanged.

The remarks came after Mira Rapp-Hooper, the NSC senior director for East Asia and Oceania, said this week that Washington will consider “interim steps” on the pathway toward the North’s denuclearization — a statement that raised speculation about a potential U.S. policy shift.

In the negotiation lexicon for the North, interim steps usually involve such measures as Pyongyang’s freeze of its nuclear weapons development in return for sanctions relief or other incentives to encourage the regime’s denuclearization efforts.

“Our position on the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has not changed,” the spokesperson said in response to a question from Yonhap News Agency, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but in my opinion the best that can be hoped for at this point is an agreement limiting the amount of nuclear weapons North Korea has, a ban on proliferation, and an end to their ICBM program.

The Korea Times recently interviewed three Korean foreign policy experts about what they thought how a second Trump presidency would impact South Korea. What I found most interesting was not the Trump talk, but how these experts believe negotations with North Korea should continue to be centered around trying to get them to denuclearize:

Q: North Korea’s threat has become sophisticated. And the North had continued to build up its nuclear capabilities to solidify its status as a nuclear power. Given this, do you believe denuclearizing North Korea is achievable? Will there be a need to discard denuclearization negotiations and adopt a new format of disarmament talks? 

Kim: Denuclearization is and should continue to be an end goal to achieve. This is a daunting task unprecedented in the history of nuclear arms control and disarmament, but it cannot be given up. If we give up denuclearization, North Korea will be recognized as a de facto nuclear state. And this likely means the beginning of the collapse of the NPT. This is a nightmare for all. If North Korea becomes a nuclear weapon state, this would agitate South Koreans, and public opinion would evolve even stronger in favor of South Korea’s nuclear armament. If South Korea arms itself with nuclear weapons, other countries in the region, such as Japan and even Taiwan, will also feel the need to follow suit. If this happens, not only the U.S. but also China will face unmanageable proliferation risks. 

A nuclear-weapon-free North Korea may sound unfeasible at the moment, but we need to keep trying to make it happen. For that, we need to prevail on North Korea to come back to negotiation on the basis that everything should be on the table. This means both of our and their concerns must not be precluded from any negotiation. 

Ahn: The importance of the NPT cannot be overstated. When the treaty was proposed by the U.S. in 1960’s, the former Soviet Union was fully supportive because there was a shared belief that the international community needed such a scheme to prevent proliferation. The first survey that asked South Koreans about their opinions about South Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons was released in 2022 and at that time, 76 percent of South Koreans were in favor. The U.S. officials and think tank experts whom I met were stunned whenever they heard about the survey results. Eventually, South Koreans’ overwhelming support for nuclear armament became a type of leverage and convinced the U.S. to team up with South Korea to create the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The NCG is a very useful institution for South Korea and we need to make the most of it to deter North Korea’s threat.

Korea Times

You can read much more at the link, but I just don’t see how you negotiate to achieve something that is not going to happen. Kim Jong-un is not going to give up his nuclear weapons, it is his ultimate regime survival trump card. Plus his nuclear weapons program to continues to make his regime relevant internationally. He has already turned down a deal for denuclearization in return for dropping of sanctions and nothing has changed in the intervening years that would change his mind.

I see no way any politician would be able to flip the Kim regime away from China and Russia and to suddenly denuclearize. North Korea has made it clear repeatedly they have no intention of denuclearizing and want to be recognized as a nuclear weapons state:

South Korea should prepare for a United States controlled by more isolationists and skeptics regarding American intervention in foreign affairs as Washington braces for a major Republican win in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a security expert on Northeast Asia.

The projected results of the Nov. 8 elections are about to bring new challenges to Northeast Asia, where the U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying and North Korea is speeding up the development of its nuclear weapons despite international outcry. Recent polls show that the conservative U.S. party will take control of the House and possibly win the Senate as well. 

“Many of the Republicans today are more isolationists and less internationalists than they used to be. That’s reflected most recently in signs that, if the Republicans retake the House, they are not going be so open to continue aid to Ukraine. No one is saying anything about our South Korea alliance, but it is certainly a trend in the wrong direction,” Joel Wit, founder of 38 North, a website devoted to analysis about North Korea, said at Wednesday’s forum hosted by The Korea Times. “If you look forward to the next presidential election, there is always a possibility that [former President] Donald Trump will come back and he’s not a big fan of our alliances overseas … Other Republican candidates may not as be as enthusiastic about American ties with overseas countries.” (…….)

Wit believes the denuclearization of North Korea is still possible through diplomacy, but only if the U.S. tries to achieve it from a long-term perspective.

“To put it simply, diplomacy with Pyongyang only has a chance of working with North Korea trying to move away from those countries (China and Russia). That’s been the case over the past 25 years. The problem is there is no sign of any interest on the part of North Korea,” he said. 

The only way to encourage North Korea to move away from the two nations is to transform its relationship with the U.S. fundamentally so that North Korea sees it as more valuable and beneficial. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

President Yoon has to know the Kim regime is not going to denuclearize for any amount of economic aid. However, they would happily pretend to denuclearize for economic aid like they have done in the past:

President Yoon Suk-yeol pledged Monday to swiftly improve relations with Japan based on a 1998 joint declaration between the two countries while offering to significantly rebuild North Korea’s economy if Pyongyang takes steps toward substantial denuclearization.

Yoon made the remarks in a Liberation Day speech marking 77 years since Korea’s independence from Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule. (…….)

Yoon also laid out the details of his “audacious plan” to improve North Korea’s economy in the event it takes steps to denuclearize, an offer he first made during his inauguration speech in May.

He said North Korea’s denuclearization is “essential” for sustainable peace on the peninsula, in Northeast Asia and around the world.

“The audacious initiative that I envision will significantly improve North Korea’s economy and its people’s livelihoods in stages if the North ceases the development of its nuclear program and embarks on a genuine and substantive process for denuclearization,” Yoon said.

“We will implement a large-scale food program; provide assistance for power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure; and carry out projects to modernize ports and airports for international trade.”

Yoon also offered to help enhance North Korea’s agricultural productivity, modernize its hospitals and medical infrastructure, and implement international investment and financial support initiatives.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

In my humble opinion anyone that believes that North Korea is willing to give up their nukes is not an expert on North Korea:

North Korea may still be willing to give up its nuclear weapons for the right price, but will likely wait to see how serious and committed the new U.S. administration is to diplomacy, U.S. experts said Tuesday.

“I do believe North Korea is committed to complete, verifiable denuclearization, assuming they get the security assurances they want and certainly they need because they’re concerned about regime change, and they realize nuclear weapons, indeed, are a deterrent,” Joseph DeTrani said in a webinar hosted by the Washington Times Foundation.

DeTrani served more than two decades at the Central Intelligence Agency before working as a special U.S. envoy to the six-nation denuclearization negotiations with North Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the engagement crowd is out pushing their talking point that the North Koreans would give up their nuclear weapons for the right security guarantees. The Kim regime has one goal and that is to sustain their rule. What better security guarantee could they have than possessing nuclear weapons? They saw what happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi when they were prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons; they are not going to make the same mistake.

The best that can be hoped for is to limit the number of weapons they have and try to stop their ICBM development program to threaten the U.S. homeland. In conjunction with this, the U.S. and its allies should be working to thwart North Korean proliferation of these technologies to other rogue nations which we have seen them do before with Syria and Iran. This is a more realistic goal instead of pursuing the fiction that North Korea is willing to denuclearize.

If the White House settles for something less than full denuclearization a deal can likely be reached with North Korea:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he will make deals with North Korea “very quickly” if reelected in November.

Trump was referring to his administration’s stalled efforts to get North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for concessions.

“If and when we win, we will make deals with Iran very quickly. We’ll make deals with North Korea very quickly,” he said during a press conference in Bedminster, New Jersey.

“Now whatever happened to the word North Korea? You haven’t seen that, have you?” he continued. “If I didn’t win the election in 2016, our country would now be — maybe it would be over by now — but in war with North Korea.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the best deal North Korea will ever agree to is “pretend denuclearization“.

The Atlantic has an article they recently published criticizing President Trump for his North Korea policy:

Pronouncing the diplomacy dead would be premature. There’s a chance that the North Koreans are simply trying to pressure Trump into making a deal on their terms as he faces reelection. Nevertheless, it’s a remarkable comedown for the Trump administration’s signature initiative to address what it has billed as the country’s top security threat. This is the policy in which the president has invested the most time and resources, the one that he has touted as his greatest success and made a model (maximum pressure + personal engagement by the president = wins for America) in his dealings everywhere from China to Iran. What’s at stake, though, isn’t just Trump’s legacy in foreign affairs or the Nobel Peace Prize he so clearly desires. Also at the mercy of what comes next are global efforts to stop the spread of the world’s most destructive weapons and potentially one of the last opportunities to reconcile North and South Korea after 70 years of alienation.

The Atlantic

You can read the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying for years, the North Koreans are never going to denuclearize. The best the U.S. can hope for is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that Pyongyang has been pushing for. The Trump administration has resisted this which has predictably led to where we are at today. Pyongyang will create a “crisis” in the lead up to the U.S. presidential election, the media will breathlessly report on the “crisis”, and publications like the The Atlantic will write opinion pieces like this on how Trump’s policies have failed.

This is North Korea’s version of a pressure campaign to get what it wants which is the “Pretend Denuclearization” deal. This leaves the President with the choice of signing a “Pretend Denuclearization” deal that his critics will then claim he gave into North Korean pressure in return for a bad deal. The other option is to put pressure back on Pyongyang both diplomatically, economically, and militarily like back in 2017 that could lead to potential miscalculations.

I guess we will see what happens, but neither option will lead to the Kim regime denuclearizing.