Tag: denuclearization

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to any following the denuclearization negotiations that Moon Chung-in wants the US to drop sanctions for little or nothing in return from North Korea:

Washington remains largely skeptical of the North Korean leader’s intention to denuclearize.

Amid these circumstances, a special adviser to the President stated a paradigm shift may be necessary.

“The U.S. views North Korea in the frame of crime and punishment ―- this is its social construct of reality that North Korea cheats and lies,” Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, told The Korea Times in an interview at his office last week.

“But if it only looks at Pyongyang through this frame there is no way out. There needs to be a more pragmatic, flexible approach to North Korea.”

Stalled talks

Moon attributes the stall in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. to differences surrounding when to lift sanctions.

“Basically the stance of the U.S. is that sanctions will be lifted when North Korea achieves complete denuclearization, which North Korea cannot accept,” he said.

He pointed out that while Pyongyang initially called only for a declaration ending the war, it is now stating this is not enough because Kim offered to permanently dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility in his third summit with Moon held in Pyongyang. The U.S., meanwhile, wants North Korea to disclose its nuclear arsenal and submit to inspections, the adviser said.

However, Pyongyang would be unwilling to report its entire nuclear inventory for two reasons, he said.

“First, why would North Korea hand over a list of its inventory while relations with the U.S. are still hostile? This would leave the regime defenseless,” Moon said.

The other reason is based on the inherent nature of declaring inventory.

“The U.S. states that North Korea has 60 to 65 nuclear warheads, but if it has less than this amount, the U.S. will never believe it even if Pyongyang makes a declaration. Washington will continue to call for additional reports and the process will fall through. This will leave North Korea in a worse situation than before making the report.”

This is why Pyongyang is calling for a trust relationship to be built first, he said.

“The North is seeking a non-aggression relationship through the declaration ending the war, and for the U.S. to take corresponding measures for the shutting down of the Yongbyon facility in a verifiable way ―- such as lifting sanctions,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but Moon Chung-in is the ROK administration’s trial balloon specialist to judge American reaction to proposed ideas.  In the past year Moon Chung-in has stated his opposition to the THAAD battery in South Korea and has hinted at ending the US-ROK alliance.  He has even said the US US should recognize North Korea as a nuclear power which is a curious position since he says North Korea is planning to supposedly denuclearize.

Here is the latest from the Trump administration on North Korea’s denuclearization:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday during a campaign rally in Illinois that he doesn’t care how long North Korean denuclearization takes as long as there is no nuclear testing.

The remark was made as denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang remain deadlocked and a month after Trump said it “doesn’t matter” if it takes “two years, three years of five months” for the North to denuclearize.

Trump’s refusal to set a time frame seems to ignore North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s thinking on the issue. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in September, shortly after his third summit with Kim, that Kim mentioned his regime was willing to give up its nuclear arsenal by the end of Trump’s term in January 2021.

“I don’t care,” Trump said during the Illinois rally. “I tell my people, I couldn’t care how long, as long as there’s no testing, as long as there’s no nuclear testing.”

Trump boasted of his “great relationship” with Kim and how both sides were happy with each other, rebuking critics who say his administration isn’t moving fast enough to get the denuclearization job done.

“North Korea’s going to be a great economic place,” Trump said, again painting a rosy future for the North if it gives up its nuclear weapons. “The location is so good between Russia and China and South Korea.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

Notice the caveat that President Moon is using in the below quote:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Friday North Korea understands the need to give up its existing nuclear weapons to achieve complete denuclearization and says it will do so. The only remaining questions are when and how, he added.

“North Korea promised complete denuclearization. It said it will give up nukes for economic development. (It) promised that it has no reason whatsoever to possess nukes while facing difficulties, such as sanctions, as long as the safety of their regime is guaranteed,” Moon said in an interview with Britain’s BBC news.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans even if US troops withdraw from South Korea can say that the US or even the Japanese are still a threat to the regime and thus need their nukes.  That is a convenient caveat the Kim regime can always claim to justify keeping nuclear weapons.

This is just more of President Moon going around trying to convince western leaders that Kim Jong-un is a really a nice guy ready to reform in order to get international sanctions dropped.  I guess we will see if world leaders fall for it again.

Per 11 UN resolutions, NK required to abandon nuke, missile, and BCW programs in “complete, verifiable, irreversible manner.” KJU doles our morsels at his pace and demands reciprocal actions. Like a criminal asking the cop, “what will you give me for not robbing a bank today?” https://t.co/QAzKBa0c53

— Bruce Klingner (@BruceKlingner) October 9, 2018

Here is more “pretend denuclearization” from the Kim regime:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un invited U.S. nuclear experts to verify the permanent dismantling of the Punggye-ri nuclear testing site during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday.

The U.S. State Department reported in a statement that Kim had “invited inspectors” to visit the Punggye-ri testing site, where all of North Korea’s six underground nuclear tests took place starting from 2006, to confirm that “it has been irreversibly dismantled.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I would hope the US Secretary of State would realize that this is not denuclearization.  It has long been reported that the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is largely unusable now due to the mountain beginning to collapse.  For all we know the North Koreans could have their slave labor teams busy drilling caverns into another mountain right now for a new test site.

If the Kim regime was serious about confidence building measures they would ship some nuclear material out of the country.  Of course that would be real denuclearization when what they want is “pretend denuclearization“.

Not that this took much foresight, but I called it that the 2nd Trump-Kim Summit if held would be to sign the end of the Korean War and that is apparently what it will be:

South Korea is proposing that the United States hold off on a demand for an inventory of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and accept the verified closure of a key North Korean nuclear facility as a next step in the negotiations, Seoul’s top diplomat said in an interview with The Washington Post.

The plan is designed to break the impasse between North Korea and the United States as President Trump comes under mounting pressure to demonstrate progress on the denuclearization talks. It will be one of the options available to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as he arrives in North Korea on Sunday to restart negotiations.

In exchange for the verified dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, the United States would declare an end to the Korean War, a key demand of Pyongyang that U.S. officials have been reluctant to make absent a major concession by North Korea.

“What North Korea has indicated is they will permanently dismantle their nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, which is a very big part of their nuclear program,” South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said during a discussion at the South Korean mission to the United Nations. “If they do that in return for America’s corresponding measures, such as the end-of-war declaration, I think that’s a huge step forward for denuclearization.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but closing of Yongbyon is once again just more “pretend denuclearization”.  The North Koreans can drag the closure out and then at a time of their choosing the North Koreans could kick any inspectors they do allow in out and blame the US for some manufactured reason.  Additionally we don’t even know what secret facilities they may be hiding.  Before this all happens they will have already be rewarded with the peace treaty they have been seeking.  Nuclear experts seems to understand this:

“If the Yongbyon shutdown proves to be the first bite of the apple, it might be an OK starting point, but if it proves to be the only bite of the apple, it will be deeply unsatisfying – and totally reversible,” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Duyeon Kim, a Korea expert with the Center for a New American Security, said the closure of Yongbyon would be a “welcome” and “tangible” step but noted that North Korea would still be able to expand its nuclear arsenal and fissile material production at covert facilities elsewhere in the country.

The Kim regime wants the peace treaty so badly because it then challenges the legitimacy of the US military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?  John Bolton seems to understand this:

Hawks inside the Trump administration, in particular national security adviser John Bolton, remain skeptical of signing such a declaration out of fear that it will give North Korea and China justification to demand the removal of the 28,500 U.S. forces stationed in South Korea, people close to Bolton said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

Kang downplayed concerns about the declaration, emphasizing that it would be a purely “political” document and “not a legally binding treaty.”

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.  It appears that Trump might play along:

Trump, according to diplomats familiar with the negotiations, is open to signing the declaration and may not be bothered by ensuing demands about U.S. forces given his long-standing complaint that the United States pays far too much to station troops in East Asia.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out, but considering the mid-term elections are coming up it seems this would have to happen fast for maximum political benefit if the Trump administration really thinks this is a great deal.

How about the Kim regime takes steps towards real denuclearization instead of “pretend denuclearization” first:

North Korea’s foreign minister said Saturday that his country won’t dismantle its nuclear weapons program first without seeing corresponding measures from the United States.

Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Ri Yong-ho said his country’s commitment to denuclearization is firm but that it needs to see trust-building measures from the U.S.

“Without any trust in the U.S., there will be no confidence in our national security, and under such circumstances, there is no way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first,” the minister said.

The North has taken “goodwill measures” by stopping its ballistic missile tests and dismantling a nuclear test site, among other things, Ri said. The U.S., on the other hand, has increased sanctions on the North and rejected Pyongyang’s calls for a declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, he claimed.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans are continuing their line of attack of getting sanctions dropped for little to nothing in return.  They have yet to commit themselves to any real denuclearization.  They have stopped testing which can restart at anytime they have shuttered facilities that either no longer needed or easily rebuilt.  When nuclear material is flown out of the country and international inspectors are supervising the decommissioning of the Yongbyon nuclear plant then we know they are serious about denuclearization.

President Moon is continuing to advocate for everyone to believe in Kim Jong-un:

President Moon Jae-in said Tuesday that the United States has nothing to lose from its denuclearization talks with North Korea, as it could resume sanctions or reverse a declaration ending the Korean War if Pyongyang reneges on its pledge to denuclearize.

Moon stressed that U.S. concessions to North Korea could be reversed if Pyongyang was caught cheating on its denuclearization pledge during an interview with Fox News during his five-day visit to New York for the UN General Assembly.

“One thing stands clear,” the president said. “South Korea and the U.S. have nothing to lose from denuclearization talks [with the North]. Measures that the North is required to take are abandon already-made nuclear stockpiles; dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility; and close down nuclear testing and missile testing sites.”

These steps were equivalent to “irreversible measures,” and the North’s demands of the United States could easily be reversed if Pyongyang doesn’t follow through with its denuclearization promises, Moon argued.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

Here is what he had to say about USFK:

Moon also dismissed concerns that an end to the war could change the status of U.S. troops in South Korea and the UN Command.
“An end-of-war declaration is a political statement en route to signing a peace treaty. Until the peace treaty is signed, an armistice will be maintained,” he stressed.

Moon stressed that the issue of U.S. troops in the South had to do with the U.S.-Korea alliance, not ending the war or signing a peace treaty.

“North Korean leader Kim also agrees with this concept [of the U.S. forces in South Korea],” he said.

For the status of USFK, of course both Moon and Kim are of course going to say there will be no change.  I believe that President Moon is too smart to advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

With the end of the US-ROK alliance Moon and Kim can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on North Korean terms.

As far as denuclearization, I have been saying repeatedly, if the Kim regime wants people to see that it is serious about denuclearization then begin shipping nuclear material out of the country.  Instead the regime and President Moon want sanctions dropped for North Korea so far doing little to nothing in return.

Once sanctions are dropped it will be extremely difficult to get an international consensus to reimplement sanction if they are not denuclearizing, but at the same time behaving.  These countries will know that if they reimplement sanctions then missile and nuclear tests and other provocations will restart, so best just to leave North Korea alone.  This then allows the Kim regime to keep their nukes and have sanctions dropped.  We have been down this road before and it keeps ending at the same point and President Moon wants everyone to think the destination will be different this time.

I interrupt your exuberance to remind you that North Korea is not denuclearizing, is more oppressive & totalitarian than ever & has an unbroken history of international proliferation, crime, blackmail & terrorism. This is not leading to a lasting peace. It rhymes with 1938.

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 19, 2018

Notice in the below excerpt that the North Koreans at the Pyongyang summit did not agree to what the State Department has issued in their statement:

“We believe a new process which is supported by all the relevant states is unfolding,” senior presidential press secretary Yoon Young-chan said.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s pledge to take tangible denuclearization measures prompted Washington to immediately extend its hand to Pyongyang for further talks. The invitation comes after weeks of stalled negotiations between the countries.

In the statement, Pompeo stated the U.S. is “prepared to engage immediately in negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations.”

It said Pompeo invited North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho to New York for a meeting and asked Pyongyang to begin denuclearization talks with its new Special Representative Stephen Biegun in Vienna, as soon as circumstances allow.

“This will mark the beginning of negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations through the process of rapid denuclearization of North Korea, to be completed by January 2021, as committed to by Chairman Kim, and to construct a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

The location for the proposed U.S. talks with North Korea is home to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“We believe the symbolic meaning of the location being where the IAEA is headquartered was considered,” South Korea’s nuclear envoy Lee Do-hoon told reporters at the press center for the inter-Korean summit in Seoul.

Meanwhile, some terms in the U.S. statement did not match the joint statement from the Pyongyang summit such as the “permanent dismantlement of all facilities at Yongbyon in the presence of U.S. and IAEA inspectors.”

The statement did not refer to the “reciprocal measure” the North Korea stated the U.S. needed to take before it would permanently shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility, as stated in the inter-Korean agreement.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but this summit really did not do anything to bring North Korea closer to real denuclearization instead it just advanced the Kim regime’s “pretend denuclearization” initiative.