Tag: denuclearization

North Korea Seeks to Be As Denuclearized as Pakistan

| September 21, 2018

I think this article is very accurate in describing the Kim regime as wanting to be as denuclearized as Pakistan:

For seven years, Kim Jong-un has pursued an in-your-face strategy for building his nuclear arsenal: detonating blasts underground and firing missiles into the sky, all to send the message that his country’s nuclear buildup is irreversible.

Now he appears to be changing his approach, current and former American intelligence officials say, tailoring it to his reading of the man he met for a few hours three months ago in Singapore: President Trump.

North Korea is making nuclear fuel and building weapons as actively as ever, the publicly available evidence suggests. But he now appears to be borrowing a page from Israel, Pakistan and India: He is keeping quiet about it, conducting no public nuclear demonstrations and creating no crises, allowing Mr. Trump to portray a denuclearization effort as on track.  (……..)

Still, nuclear production continues unabated, satellite photographs and other evidence suggest. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not persuaded the North Koreans to turn over an inventory of their major nuclear facilities and materials, much less declare how many weapons they possess. While Mr. Kim has blown up entrances to a nuclear test site and appeared to start dismantling a test stand for missile engines, he has not allowed in any inspectors to determine whether the actions were simply for show.  (………..)

Mr. Kim’s strategy now appears to be simple: Mimic Pakistan, which conducted a major nuclear test in 1998 and deflected demands for years that it give up its weapons. Pakistan has largely succeeded. It has a substantial arsenal, and when Mr. Pompeo visited Islamabad recently, there was little public discussion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.  [New York Times]

You can read more at the link, but I have been saying this repeatedly that the Kim regime wants “Pretend Denuclearization” and not real denuclearization.  Pretend denuclearization allows them to keep their nukes like Pakistan in return for a peace treaty ending the Korean War and having sanctions dropped.  It seems foolish that anyone would agree to this, but there are many people in the academic class, political class, and US adversaries who think this is a great idea.

In the coming weeks we will see if the Trump administration agrees to this because clearly North Korea is betting that with the US midterm elections coming up that President Trump will want a supposed foreign policy victory.

Moon and Kim Sign “Pyongyang Declaration” Claiming Peace and Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula

| September 19, 2018

This looks like more of the same from North Korea where they do things that are easily reversible to get major concessions from the US:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pose for photographs during a signing ceremony after their summit at Paekhwawon State Guesthouse in Pyongyang on Wednesday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed to halt all military acts that could spark conflict along the border, promising to end confrontational relations and the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula.

The two leaders on Wednesday also reaffirmed their commitment to a nuclear free Korean peninsula with North Korean leader Kim promising to invite foreign experts to verify the dismantling of a long-range missile engine testing site. He also offered to shut down the country’s most important nuclear facility – if the United States offers “corresponding measures” in return.

“The South and North agreed to work toward terminating any chance of war and improving the hostile relationship [between the two militaries] in every corner of the Korean Peninsula beyond the demilitarized zone,” read an agreement signed by Moon and Kim, called the Pyongyang Declaration, after a second round of summit talks in Pyongyang.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but notice there is nothing agreed upon about removing the nuclear material and weapons the North Koreans have already stockpiled.  They are just offering to have international inspectors monitor the disassembling of a missile engine test site and shutting down the Yongbyon nuclear facility.  The missile test site can be reconstructed later and the regime may have enough confidence in their rocket engines to not need the site anymore anyway.  The Yongbyon nuclear facility can be restarted up at a time of the Kim regime’s choosing long after sanctions have been dropped and they received the infusion of cash and aid from the Moon administration.  This is the “pretend denuclearization“.

The timing of this summit shows that Moon and Kim are likely betting that the Trump administration will want a supposed foreign policy victory before the US mid-term elections.  I would not be surprised if they do some kind of spectacle of blowing up a launch pad or some other site to further entice the Trump administration to agree to their “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

South Korean Continue to Sour on President Moon’s North Korea Policies

| September 17, 2018

President Moon’s approval rating is down to 49% and people are more skeptical of his North Korea policies since the first Kim-Moon summit:

In this Sept. 12, 2018 file photo, people walk past under a banner showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, and South Korea President Moon Jae-in to wish for the successful inter-Korean summit at Seoul City Hall in Seoul, South Korea. South Korea’s liberal president faces growing skepticism at home about his engagement policy ahead of his third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. A survey showed nearly half of South Koreans think next week’s summit won’t find a breakthrough to resolve a troubled nuclear diplomacy. It comes as Moon’s approval rating is declining amid economic frustrations. The signs read: ” We wish for the successful summit between North and South Korea.”

“Our people are beginning to learn that North Korea will not easily give up its nukes, something that many experts had already repeatedly predicted,” said Kim Taewoo, former president of the government-funded Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

Moon may face increasing difficulties if his summit with Kim in Pyongyang fails to make tangible progress on efforts to get North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons program.

Economic woes such as a lackluster job-market growth and soaring real estate prices are compounding Moon’s problems, adding to opposition to his North Korea policy, many experts say.

“If Moon fails to address economic problems, he can’t maintain public contentment with his government only with his North Korea policy,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University. “If the economy gets worse, many people will demand that Moon stop looking to North Korea and start resolving our own economic problems.”  [Stars & Stripes]

I expect that President Moon will try and get the Kim regime to do some big spectacle to impress the South Korean domestic audience and President Trump that progress is being made on denuclearization.  Something Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong-il did was demolish a nuclear cooling tower to impress President Bush back in 2008.  The strategy worked because the Bush administration cut a deal with Kim.

The old cooling tower was easily replaceable and did nothing to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.  Kim the younger could try some kind of similar spectacle as well to make people believe in his “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

White House Announces Planning for Second Trump-Kim Summit

| September 13, 2018

If there is going to be a second Trump-Kim summit I would think there is going to be a major announcement from the summit instead of the generalities that came out of the first summit:

U.S. envoy to North Korea Stephen Begun meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Seoul, Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2018. COURTESY OF THE BLUE HOUSE

South Korea’s president called on the United States and North Korea to make “bold decisions” to put nuclear negotiations back on track as the White House announced planning is underway for a second summit between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.

President Moon Jae-in, who plans to travel to Pyongyang next week for his own meeting with Kim, said he has no choice but to play mediator to promote dialogue between the longtime adversaries.

Talks aimed at persuading the North to give up nuclear weapons have stalled since Trump and Kim vowed to work toward the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” at their June 12 summit in Singapore.

But Trump welcomed a North Korean military parade over the weekend that left out the usual long-range missiles and focused on peace and economic development in what was seen as a gesture toward rekindling talks with Washington.

Moon said Tuesday that the North must dismantle its nuclear weapons programs and the U.S. must take a corresponding step.

“If we would like to move to a higher level … bold ideas and decisions by the leaders of North Korea and the United States are necessary,” he said during a Cabinet meeting, according to a transcript from his office. “In the process, both countries must end the deep-rooted, mutual distrust stemming from 70 years of hostile relations.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but when President Moon talks about “bold decisions” what he means is that President Trump needs to sign up for the “pretend denuclearization” plan.  Does anyone really expect Kim Jong-un is going to show up at a second summit and hand over his nukes to President Trump?

President Trump Says North Korea’s Failure to Denuclearize is Because of China

| August 31, 2018

President Trump is now saying he still supports a suspension of joint military drills and blames China for the recent gridlock on denuclearization:

The White House said Wednesday the U.S. decision to suspend major combined military exercises with South Korea holds true despite a stalemate in efforts to denuclearize North Korea.

President Donald Trump believes “there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games,” his office said in a statement posted on his Twitter account.

It cited Trump’s “good and warm” relationship with the North’s leader Kim Jong-un stemming from their historic Singapore summit on June 12.

Trump thinks China is to blame, at least partially, for the recent gridlock highlighted by the cancellation of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang this week.

He “feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese Government,” the statement read.

Furthermore, it added, China is providing North Korea with “considerable aid, including money, fuel, fertilizer and various other commodities. This is not helpful!”  [Yonhap]

You can read much more at the link, but I am sure the Chinese are not being helpful on the nuclear issue, however I have never believed the Kim regime has wanted to denuclearize anyway.  Their strategy has long been getting concessions for pretend denuclearization.

President Moon Claims He Will Help Mediate A Nuclear Deal Between the US and North Korea

| August 28, 2018

The message President Moon should bring with him is very simple, get rid of the nukes if you want sanctions dropped:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in will likely seek to mediate a breakthrough in talks between the United States and North Korea when he visits Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a Seoul official said Sunday.

The presidential aide highlighted the importance of Moon’s role in advancing apparently stalled talks on the North’s denuclearization following the cancellation of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to the North scheduled for this week.

“I believe President Moon’s role has only become greater,” the official from the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said when asked about any possible change to Moon’s scheduled trip after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday abruptly called off Pompeo’s visit.

Trump cited a lack of “sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

South Korea Calls Cancellation of US Secretary of State Visit to North Korea “Unfortunate”

| August 25, 2018

This is just another indication that President Trump is not about to sign up for a “pretend denuclearization” deal with the North Koreans like Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow want him to do:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, second from left, is greeted by North Korean Director of the United Front Department Kim Yong Chol, center, and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, second from right, as he arrives at Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang, North Korea, on July 6, 2018.

South Korea on Saturday called the U.S. decision to call off a trip to North Korea by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unfortunate and said that continued diplomacy was most crucial in resolving the nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.

The statement by the Foreign Ministry in Seoul came hours after President Donald Trump directed Pompeo to delay his trip because of what he saw as a lack of progress on nuclear disarmament talks with the North. Trump also said the nuclear negotiations with North Korea have been hampered by the lack of support from China, the North’s only major ally that’s engaged in an intensifying trade dispute with the United States.

While describing the delayed trip as a setback, the ministry said it would be most important for the allies to pursue “substantial progress” on denuclearization. South Korea expects China to continue serving a “constructive role” in international efforts to solve the nuclear crisis and noted that Beijing continues to express commitment to fully implement sanctions against the North, the ministry said.

“While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime in the Korean Peninsula.”  [Associated Press]

You can read more at the link, but what is going on is that I think President Trump is sending a message to not only North Korea, but to Beijing and Seoul as well.  China is not strictly enforcing sanctions on North Korea and even the South Koreans have not been effectively enforcing sanctions either.  This is going to come down to who is going to blink first because the North Koreans will not commit to real denuclearization unless sanctions are fully enforced on them.  As long as other countries like China continue to not strictly enforce sanctions the Kim regime will feel no expediency to denuclearize at the pace the Trump administration wants.