Tag: denuclearization

It seems to me that the Kim regime is working hard to butter up the US President while playing hardball with his underlings:

President Donald Trump Thursday released a letter from Kim Jong Un, in which the North Korean leader voices confidence in efforts to end their nuclear standoff, while calling on his US counterpart to take “practical actions” to build trust.

“A very nice note from Chairman Kim of North Korea,” Trump tweeted alongside a copy of the letter dated July 6 — the day that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo landed in Pyongyang for what turned out to be difficult talks with Kim’s regime.

“Great progress being made!” Trump added in his tweet.

In the letter Kim describes his June 12 summit with Trump in Singapore, and the resulting joint statement agreed by both sides, as the “start of a meaningful journey.”

“I firmly believe that the strong will, sincere efforts and unique approach of myself and Your Excellency Mr. President aimed at opening up a new future between the DPRK and the U.S. will sure surely come to fruition,” Kim writes.

“I deeply appreciate the energetic and extraordinary efforts made by Your Excellency Mr. President for the improvement of relations between the two countries and the faithful implementation of the joint statement,” he adds.

The North Korean leader also voices hope that “the invariable trust and confidence in Your Excellency Mr. President will be further strengthened in the future process of taking practical actions.”  [AFP]

You can read more at the link, but my thoughts on this is that the Kim regime as well as the Moon administration in South Korea, both understand that guys like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo have no intention of dropping sanctions until real denuclearization occurs.  That is why I believe they have been trying to appeal to President Trump’s ego in attempt to overrule his advisors and drop the sanctions for pretend denuclearization deal.

That is why I believe President Moon has come out and said that President Trump should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and now we have Kim Jong-un appealing to his ego by calling Trump “Your Excellency” repeatedly.  Time will tell if their strategy works or not.

It looks like people are starting to realize that President Trump has been following John Bolton’s advice all along in regards to North Korea:

First, Trump could simply choose to shrug, continue to tweet that the North Korean threat has evaporated, and direct Pompeo to secure concessions in any way possible. This would be a likely path to appeasing Pyongyang, resulting in the United States giving up valuable leverage for virtually cosmetic North Korean concessions like the reversible dismantlement of tunnel entrances at the Punggye-ri nuclear site. North Korea has plenty of old and now out-of-use nuclear and missile sites it could happily detonate before the international press.

Second, Trump could simply allow the North Korea process that began on June 12 to quietly collapse and put the issue of its nuclear program and disarmament on ice—call it a return to “strategic patience.”

The problem here is that the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign is all but dead after the Singapore summit and it’s more likely than not that China, along with Russia, will ease up on the implementation of existing sanctions and perhaps even call for a removal of United Nations sanctions applied in 2017 on North Korean exports.

In this scenario, the U.S. loses interest and North Korea benefits economically while continuing to build out its nuclear program without constraints. This would be the equivalent of a continuation of the muddling-through approach that three consecutive U.S. administrations found themselves resigned to with North Korea, updated for the era of a considerably more capable North Korea.

Third, Trump could find himself left with nothing but the literal nuclear option. Feeling spurned and humiliated by Kim, Trump may find that the only way to move forward is to let John Bolton’s March 2017 prophecy come true.

Weeks before entering the White House as Trump’s advisor on national security affairs, Bolton, as a private citizen, had remarked on Trump’s acceptance of Kim’s invitation that “[The purpose of this process is to] foreshorten the amount of time that we’re going to waste in negotiations that will never produce the result we want, which is Kim giving up his nuclear program.”

Gone would be the days of “all options” being on the table. Trump might conclude then that the only path to denuclearization is an all-out military strike on North Korea—a trigger to a nuclear war that would engulf Northeast Asia in tremendous destruction and likely parts of the U.S. homeland, given North Korea’s intercontinental-range ballistic missile capability.

None of these scenarios are appealing, though the third is quite clearly the worst. Trump’s Monday tweet offers the clearest glimpse of why diplomacy-for-diplomacy’s-sake with North Korea can be dangerous—even if it pulled us back from the brink of “fire and fury.”  [Daily Beast]

You can read more at the link, but I have been saying this for quite sometime that I think the Trump administration is simply giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and denuclearize.  It almost seems like they are checking every box to say they have tried every peaceful means to get them to denuclearize.  If the Kim regime does not take advantage of this chance I think other options will be seriously considered and appeasement which this article suggests will not be one of those options.

North Korea likely had no plans of giving up their nukes, but were willing to pretend for a while to string the US along.  However, the sharp rebuke they gave this weekend to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit may be linked to the China trade issue:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) suggested on Sunday that China may have pressured North Korea to take a harder line against U.S. negotiators during a recent visit to the isolated country by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

“I see China’s hands all over this,” Graham told “Fox News Sunday,” citing an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China as Beijing’s possible motivation. “We’re in a fight with China.”

Graham’s comments came a day after the North Korean foreign ministry released a lengthy statement, condemning U.S. negotiators’ “gangster-like demand for denuclearization.” [The Hill]

You can read more at the link, but if China continues to violate sanctions to support the Kim regime I wonder if at some point the Trump administration will consider sanctions on China as well.

This was an encouraging response from Secretary of State Pompeo to North Korean claims of “gangster demands”:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday his country is making fair demands on North Korea in denuclearization talks, refuting its strongly worded criticism following his latest trip to Pyongyang.

The North openly expressed disappointment over what he put forward during a hourslong bargaining with Kim Yong-chol, a top North Korean official, on Thursday and Friday.

Pompeo presented a “unilateral and gangster-like” demand for “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization (CVID), the North’s foreign ministry said in a statement issued after his departure.

“If those requests were ‘gangster-like’ then the world is a gangster, because there was a unanimous decision at the U.N. Security Council about what needs to be achieved,” the secretary said in the first U.S. response to the North’s assertion that added to skepticism over future negotiations.

He was speaking at a joint press conference with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts — Kang Kyung-wha and Taro Kono — in Tokyo.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the irony of this is that North Korea is often called the “Sopranos State” and they are ones accusing the US of gangster demands.

Probably the most positive sign in the article is that Pompeo says the sanctions will remain in place:

“Sanctions will remain in place until final, fully verified denuclearization,” Pompeo stressed. “While we are encouraged by the progress of these talks, progress alone does not justify the relaxation of the existing sanctions regime.”

The denuclearization of Korea covers not just nuclear bombs but also missiles, he said, adding North Korean officials also understand that.

On the trustworthiness issue, he said, “There will be a verification connected to the complete denuclearization.”

Like I have always said if the US drops sanctions for little to nothing in return then hit the panic button.  People just need to be patient and let what I think is Kim’s final chance to rejoin the world community to play out.

A former nuclear envoy from past six party talks believes things are different now and Kim Jong-un really does mean to denuclearize:

DeTrani, currently a professor at Missouri State University’s Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, believes that this time will be totally different from the past in three aspects.

3 reasons to be optimistic

The first thing that he thinks we should pay attention to is that the ongoing movement has been spearheaded by the top two leaders ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, not negotiators.

“The difference is that the two leaders are talking about these critical issues and coming up with the path to resolve it. It’s their words and commitment. That changed the equation,” he said in an interview with The Korea Times at The Shilla hotel in Seoul on June 28.

“In the past we were working through negotiators and looking for approval of leadership. It has been reversed productively. So it’s a different equation,” he added. “Literally, Kim, President Trump, Moon and Xi Jinping all are saying the same thing. We have never had this before.”

The second reason he cited for his optimism is that the North’s economy is in a dire situation.

According to DeTrani’s assessment, without sanctions relief, Kim won’t be able to push for economic developments he has promised to his people so he has made a strategic decision to denuclearize the isolated country.

“The key here is economic development. Kim has said that he had to do more for the people and we see elements of economic reform going on now. This is the path seemingly he wants to take,” he said.

“If he has crushing sanctions and intimidating joint military exercises, (it means) total isolation. So I think he has made strategic decision to change that equation.”

The third reason behind his optimism is his belief that Kim, who studied in Switzerland, is a different person from his father or grandfather.

“Recently, North Korea had worked with UNICEF. That’s significant. I think he is a different leader and he wants to do more for the people,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but

Here is the latest from the State Department on North Korean denuclearization efforts:

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday declined to specify a deadline for North Korea’s denuclearization ahead of negotiations to be led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later this week.

Pompeo is slated to travel to Pyongyang Thursday to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and flesh out a denuclearization agreement signed by Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump at their historic summit last month.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday that he expects Pompeo to discuss with the North Koreans a plan to dismantle the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in a year.

“I know some individuals have given timelines. We’re not going to provide a timeline for that,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said at a regular press briefing.

“The secretary’s looking forward to having these meetings. A lot of work is left to be done, certainly. We go into this eyes wide open, with a very clear view of these conversations,” she added.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Trump administration official on North Korea: “It doesn’t look like they want to denuclearize at all.”

Entire North Korea expert community: “No shit, Sherlock.” https://t.co/t1kKpkXx8p pic.twitter.com/dw6wEGfVi2

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) May 20, 2018

It looks like President Trump is making it very clear that there will be no long drawn out denuclearization process with North Korea like we have seen with past failed deals:

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of delaying his planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in a meeting with President Moon Jae-in at the White House, Wednesday.

Trump said “all-in-one” denuclearization would be better than an incremental process with incentives, and it should be done over a very short period of time.

“There are certain conditions that we want. And I think we’ll get those conditions. And if we don’t, we won’t have the meeting,” Trump said. “Frankly, there’s a chance to be a great, great meeting for North Korea and a great meeting for the world. If it doesn’t happen, maybe it will happen later.”

He added, “It may not work out for June 12.”

But the U.S. president assured Kim of the safety of his regime, adding South Korea, China and Japan would invest in the North to help make the country “great” if it follows through on denuclearization.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I agree with President Trump that this should be an all or nothing deal for Kim Jong-un.  The North Koreans this time should not receive massive amounts of aid and other incentives for little to nothing in return.  Instead they should demonstrate irreversible intent to denuclearize which the dog and pony show for the closure of the nuclear test site is not.  For example if nuclear material begins to get shipped out of the country and their nuclear plant is dismantled that is evidence of irreversible intent to denuclearize.

Considering how the Kim regime has received large rewards for little to nothing in return from past nuclear agreements, they have lost all benefit of the doubt from the Trump administration:

The United States will not reward North Korea before the regime “permanently, irreversibly” dismantles its nuclear weapons program, the nominee to be the top U.S. diplomat said Thursday.

Mike Pompeo, the nominee for U.S. secretary of state, told his Senate confirmation hearing that the Trump administration does not plan to repeat the failures of past negotiations that provided Pyongyang with economic aid before its nuclear program was undone.

“It is the intention of the president and the administration not to do that this time to make sure that before we provide rewards, we get the outcome permanently, irreversibly, that it is that we hope to achieve,” said Pompeo, who currently serves as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

“It is a tall order, but I am hopeful that President Trump can achieve that through sound diplomacy,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Even if Kim Jong-un supposedly gave his word to seek denuclearization he could still very easily blame the ROK and the US for some made up reason to scrap any denuclearization deal that is made:

South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha expressed confidence in North Korea’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons program, saying the regime’s leader gave “his word.”

This month North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conveyed in a verbal message to U.S. President Donald Trump that he is committed to denuclearization and would stop all nuclear and missile tests. He also invited Trump to a summit, and the U.S. president accepted the offer.

“He has given his word,” Kang told U.S. broadcaster CBS in an interview filmed Saturday and aired Sunday. “But the significance of his word is quite weighty in the sense that this is the first time that the words came directly from the North Korean supreme leader himself. And that has never been done before.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.