Long time Korea watchers are probably not surprised by the below statement from Kim Jong-un who has backed down from his supposed plan to fire four missiles towards Guam:
The state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Tuesday that the army had finalized the blueprint and presented it to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he inspected his Strategic Force command the day before.
“He examined the plan for a long time and discussed it with the commanding officers in real earnest,” KCNA said, adding that Kim offered praise for the “close and careful plan.”
The leader reportedly said “he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees,” as the North calls the Americans, and warned that he may “make an important decision as it already declared” if the conduct persists.
KCNA quoted Kim as saying “that if the planned fire of power demonstration is carried out as the U.S. is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”
Kim said the U.S. “should stop at once arrogant provocations against [North Korea] and unilateral demands and not provoke it any longer,” the agency said.
Analysts said Kim was trying to tamp down skyrocketing tensions that have generated the most serious crisis on the divided peninsula in years. But they also warned he left the door open to launch a missile if he feels provoked.
“By North Korean signaling it’s a clear de-escalation, and it’s also an ask for the de-escalation from the American side,” said John Delury, an Asia expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but the whole threat was clearly just rhetoric because the regime is not suicidal. They know full well attacking Guam would lead to the end of the regime. This backing down from attacking Guam doesn’t mean they will not launch a provocation. With the upcoming UFG military exercise they will very likely do something.
As I have said before if there are any deadly provocations planned they will be launched against a ROK target not the US. North Korea has killed and injured many ROK servicemembers and civilians over the decades to include in recent years with little to no retaliation. They know killing Americans will lead to retaliation which is why provocations directed towards the US have been missile and nuclear tests. I don’t see anything right now changing this calculus for the Kim regime.
It seems that further an American is away from the US mainland the better their perspective becomes on the recent rhetorical wars between President Trump and Kim Jong-un because I think Guam Governor Eddie Calvo is correct in his assessment:
Guam Governor Eddie Calvo
Guam’s leader said Monday that “sometimes a bully can only be stopped with a punch in the nose”, in a spirited defence of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric against North Korea which has the island in its crosshairs.
While Trump’s critics accuse him of inflaming tensions with Pyongyang, Guam governor Eddie Calvo said he was grateful the US leader was taking a strong stance against North Korean threats to his Pacific homeland.
“Everyone who grew up in the schoolyard in elementary school, we understand a bully,” Calvo told AFP.
“(North Korean leader) Kim Jong-Un is a bully with some very strong weapons… a bully has to be countered very strongly.”
Calvo, a Republican, said Trump was being unfairly criticised over his handling of the North Korea crisis, which escalated when Pyongyang announced plans to launch missiles toward Guam in a “crucial warning”.
He said North Korea had threatened Guam — a US territory which hosts two large military bases and is home to more than 6,000 military personnel — at least three times since 2013.
Trump has responded by threatening “fire and fury”, warning last week that the US military was “locked and loaded” to respond to any aggression.
“President Trump is not your conventional elected leader, what he says and how he says it is a lot different from what was said by previous presidents,” Calvo said.
But he pointed out previous presidents had also used strong words to warn off Pyongyang, including Barack Obama who said last year that “we could, obviously, destroy North Korea with our arsenals”.
“One president (Obama) said it one way, cool and calmly with a period… the other said fire and fury with an exclamation point, but it still leads to the same message,” Calvo said.
He rejected suggestions that Trump and the North Korean dictator were as bad as each other when it came to the sabre-rattling playing out in the western Pacific.
“Well there’s only one guy that has vaporised into a red mist his uncle or a general because he fell asleep in a meeting with an anti-aircraft gun, that’s Kim Jong-Un,” he said.
“There’s only one guy that’s killed his brother with one of the most toxic nerve agents ever created, that’s Kim Jong-Un.” [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but the statement that Governor Calvo is referring to is when President Obama threatened that the US could destroy North Korea in response to a submarine launched ballistic missile test just last year. The media did not freak out and it did not lead to a global crisis where everyone thought war was imminent.
The annual August North Korean provocation cycle that happens just about every year around the Ulchi Freedom Guardian US-ROK military exercise continues to escalate. The latest is that the Kim regime is no longer happy attacking fish in the Sea of Japan with their ballistic missiles and are instead drawing up plans to attack the fish off of Guam:
North Koreans shout slogans at a rally at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang carrying placards that claim the country is a nuclear power and to strike the United States on Wednesday. [AP/YONHAP]North Korea said Thursday an operational plan targeting waters near Guam will be completed by mid-August and reported to leader Kim Jong-un for his final order, threatening to send four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles over Japan to land 30 to 40 kilometers (19 to 25 miles) away from the American island in the Western Pacific.
The North didn’t mention when the operation would be carried out, but said it would “keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.” for cues. The statement was made in English by Kim Rak-gyom, commander of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Strategic Force, and released via the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The more specific threat to Guam and its U.S. naval base came after U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday in New Jersey that North Korea will face “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if it continues to threaten the United States. The North relayed its Guam threat for the first time Wednesday through KCNA without any timeline.
The KPA is “seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic rockets,” the KCNA report read Thursday, adding that the operation was meant to send a “crucial warning” to the U.S. about its sanctions on the regime. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
I think Secretary of Defense Mattis has made the best statement for Kim Jong-un:
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Wednesday in Washington that Pyongyang should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the “end of its regime and the destruction of its people.”
I think that is the talking point the US government needs to repeat to North Korea as well as their ally China that any provocation on Guam will lead to the end of the Kim regime.
The media of course is going to try and hype this as if everyone on Guam is ready to evacuate the island not because of threats from Kim Jong-un, but because of President Trump:
Distance between Guam and North Korea.
Residents of the tiny Pacific island of Guam say they’re afraid of being caught in the middle of escalating tensions between the U.S. and North Korea after Pyongyang announced it was examining plans for attacking the strategically important U.S. territory.
Though local officials downplayed any threat, people who live and work on the island, which serves as a launching pad for the U.S. military, said Wednesday they could no longer shrug off the idea of being a potential target.
“I’m a little worried, a little panicked. Is this really going to happen?” said Cecil Chugrad, a 37-year-old bus driver for a tour bus company in Guam. “If it’s just me, I don’t mind, but I have to worry about my son. I feel like moving (out of Guam) now.”
Guam is used to the threats from North Korea but advances in the country’s nuclear program paired with fiery rhetoric from President Donald Trump has raised the already high animosity and heightened worries that a miscalculation might spark conflict between the nuclear-armed nations. [Associated Press]
You can read more at the link, but North Korea has made threats to attack Guam before and that is why a THAAD missile defense battery was deployed to the island back in 2013. The THAAD battery has a perfect test record and just recently conducted a flight test verifying it can intercept a North Korean Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, the type they would use to attack Guam.
The people on Guam know they have the Army’s premier missile defense asset stationed there. Additionally Kim Jong-un knows that an attack on Guam is an attack on America that will be met with regime change. Bottom line is Kim Jong-un is not suicidal and the people of Guam are well protected regardless.
Secretary of State Tillerson provides some context in regards to President Trump’s recent comments about North Korea:
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson played down President Donald Trump’s incendiary warning to North Korea on Wednesday, saying he was just trying to send a strong message in language its leader would understand.
Tillerson, speaking to reporters before landing in Guam, a U.S.-held Pacific island that Pyongyang threatened to strike, said he does not believe there is an imminent threat from North Korea.
“I think Americans should sleep well at night, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days,” he said.
Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea it would face “fire and fury” if it threatens the United States, prompting the nuclear-armed nation to say it was considering firing missiles at Guam.
“I think what the president was just reaffirming is that the United States has the capability to fully defend itself from any attack, and our allies, and we will do so,” Tillerson said.
The international community had a “pretty good week” with respect to North Korea, he said, citing new U.N. sanctions and strong statements coming out of a meeting of world leaders in Asia.
“In response to that, North Korea’s rhetoric is just ratcheted up, louder and louder and more threatening,” Tillerson told reporters. “So I think the president, what the president is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in language that Kim Jong Un would understand, because he doesn’t seem to understand diplomatic language.” [CNBC]
You can read more at the link, but the media is of course in full freak out mode not because of Kim Jong-un, but because of President Trump. My guess is that President Trump in an unconventional way is trying to make it clear to Kim Jong-un to not miscalculate North Korea’s response to the recent UN sanctions that were passed. Additionally I think the President may be sending a message to China to make sure North Korea does not miscalculate as well because it could lead to an outcome the Chinese leadership does not want to happen.
Remember that the Ulchi Focus Lens US-ROK military exercise is coming up later this month which is typically when a North Korean provocation cycle happens. Whatever the North Koreans have planned this year they may have to be reassess based off of President Trump’s warning.
The big take away for Korea watchers from this successful flight test of the THAAD missile defense system is that the threat target was an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) which is the same class of missile as North Korea’s Musudan. A THAAD battery was deployed to Guam back in 2013 to defend against the Musudan threat to Guam and this flight test validates its capability to defend against this threat:
The United States said on Tuesday it shot down a simulated, incoming intermediate-range ballistic missile similar the ones being developed by countries like North Korea, in a new test of the nation’s defences.
Planned months ago, the U.S. missile defence test over the Pacific Ocean has gained significance after North Korea’s July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile heightened concerns about the threat from Pyongyang.
The test was the first-ever of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system against an incoming IRBM, which experts say is a faster and more difficult target to hit than shorter-range missiles.
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency said the IRBM was designed to behave similarly to the kinds of missiles that could threaten the United States.
“The successful demonstration of THAAD against an IRBM-range missile threat bolsters the country’s defensive capability against developing missile threats in North Korea and other countries,” the Missile Defense Agency said in a statement. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but the THAAD system has now had 14 of 14 successful intercepts during flight tests.
Here is the typical response from the Pentagon to North Korean provocations:
A U.S. B-1B bomber drops an inert bomb on a mock target during its joint drill with South Korea’s fighter jets on July 8, 2017, in this photo provided by the Air Force. (Yonhap)
Two U.S. long-range strategic bombers flew over the Korean Peninsula on Saturday in a stern warning to North Korea for its long-range missile launch last week.
The B-1B Lancers based in Guam practiced “attack capabilities,” accompanied by South Korea’s F-15K and the U.S. Air Force’s F-16 fighter jets, for several hours in the joint show of force, according to the allies.
In a rare move, they made public a photo and footage of the bombers dropping inert GBU-56 laser guided bombs onto a mock target at the Pilsung range in Gangwon Province. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but of interest is that the ROK Air Force escorted the B-1’s across the Korean peninsula and then handed off the escort to the Japanese Air Self Defense Force who escorted the bombers across the East China Sea back to Guam after the flight over the Korean peninsula. That is actually great to see the cooperation between the ROK and Japan which I am sure the Kim regime took notice of.
It looks like Japan is thinking of introducing their own THAAD system as well:
Japan’s Kyodo news agency reports the government may be following in South Korea’s footsteps on deploying U.S.-provided THAAD missile defense.
Kyodo says Tokyo will soon set up a THAAD review committee to examine the system in detail.
Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada visited a THAAD unit on Guam Friday and was briefed by U.S. officials.
She says there’s no concrete plan to introduce THAAD quite yet, but warns that North Korea’s missile and nuclear development has entered what she calls a new phase. [KBS World Radio]
Some of the most powerful ROK and US military officers were recently in Guam touring United States strategic assets located on the island:
In this photo taken in Guam on Nov. 1 and provided by Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, JCS Chairman Lee Sun-jin (L) and U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Vincent K. Brooks hold a joint press conference in front of a nuclear-powered submarine at Naval Base Guam. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s top military officer visited Guam and exchanged views with top U.S. brass on ways to further strengthen their alliance against North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Tuesday.
JCS Chairman Gen. Lee Sun-jin and U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Vincent K. Brooks examined the range of U.S. strategic assets in Guam along with senior leaders from the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Pacific Command, the JCS said in a statement.
“The Seoul-Washington alliance is capable of immediately responding to any type of provocation from North Korea. The allies will consider all options, including the rotational deployment of U.S. strategic assets near the Korean Peninsula, if the North sticks to developing nuclear weapons,” Lee said in a joint press conference held at Naval Base Guam, according to the statement. (……..)
The military leaders then inspected strategic assets such as the B-1B strategic bombers, nuclear-powered submarines and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery set up in Guam to intercept possible incoming missiles from the communist North. [Yonhap]
