Tag: ICBM

North Korea is doubling down on its viewpoint that it has the right just like any other sovereign country to test an ICBM.  Of note though is that they are saying the ICBM test is part of its space program:

 

North Korean criticized the international community on Tuesday for its double standard toward the country’s development of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in his New Year’s Day address that the country has entered the final stage of preparations to test fire an ICBM, an apparent warning that the reclusive country is perfecting the capability to hit the continental United States with nukes.

“Acting by the double-dealing standard unilaterally set by the U.S. in its interests, the UN brands the legitimate exercise of the sovereignty by an independent country as ‘illegal’ and its measure for self-defense provocation,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report monitored in Seoul.

Pyongyang’s state-run media further said the North’s test firing is the country’s “exercise of the right to launch satellites for peaceful purposes, justified by international law.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the way I look at it is if the Kim regime wants to be treated like a normal country, then act like a normal country.

Yonhap has a good interview published with an aerospace engineer that outlines what North Korea’s testing of the ICBM capability would likely look like:

John Schilling, an aerospace engineer with expertise in the North’s missile programs, said that the North’s ICBM test could involve a missile variant of the space launch vehicle Unha or the road-mobile KN-08 missile or its upgraded version KN-14.

A test of the Unha rocket fitted with a reentry vehicle large enough for a nuclear warhead would likely work, but it would put “an end to any pretense or hope of a peaceful space program,” the expert said.  (……..)

Schilling also noted the first American ICBM, the SM-65 Atlas, failed 26 seconds into its maiden flight and eight tests were conducted over the course of a year, with only two fully successful. The first all-up test of the competing SM-68 Titan was even shorter, exploding on the launch pad, he said.

“We should expect North Korean ICBMs to follow a similar path — a series of early failures leading to an operational capability even with a spotty testing record,” the expert said.

The North is unlikely to conduct an ICBM test as frequently as it did with the intermediate-range Musudan missile that was tested eight times between April and October last year, he said.

“Pyongyang can afford to keep up that pace in a full-scale ICBM development program. Its aerospace industry hasn’t demonstrated the production capacity needed to test an ICBM every month,” he said. ” One test every three to six months would be more realistic, at least in the long run, so this is not a process that will be completed in 2017.”

Should the North decide to test the KN-08 or KN-14, it is expected to use existing launch sites, rather than a mobile launcher, in order to reduce chances of failure and to learn as much as possible from the failures, he said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

US ability to shoot down North Korean missile not guaranteed, report says | https://t.co/xRWoBTGJTy

— DPRK Watch (@dprkwatch) January 10, 2017

It seems like this same question has to be answered every time North Korea threatens to fire a long range missile.  According to the article the US military will not shoot down the missile unless it threatens an area protected by US missile defenses.  North Korea has historically fired their long range missiles on test trajectories out into the ocean.  These tests allow intelligence agencies to collect information on the Kim regime’s progress in developing their missiles:

US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Tuesday that if launches do not pose a risk to the US or an ally, “it may be more to our advantage… to gather intelligence from the flight.”

Considering how President-Elect Trump tweeted that he would stop a North Korean rocket launch, I would be totally surprised if the Kim regime does not launch something in the near term just to call his bluff.  The challenge for the North Koreans will be ensuring that the missile doesn’t blow up after launch which is what their track record for long range missiles has been lately:

North Korea on Sunday said it may launch its long-range missile at any time and anywhere its leaders choose, possibly hinting at its mobile capabilities while also asserting its right to do so.

In an interview carried by the North’s official Korean Central Television, a spokesman from the North’s foreign ministry also claimed his country has already developed standardized nuclear warheads.

“The United States continues to denounce our just preparations to launch rockets as a provocation and talk about sanctions as if a thief wields a stick,” the unidentified spokesman said.

In his New Year speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said his country was in the final stage of preparing to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

How realistic is the threat that North Korea could hit the US with a nuclear missile?
Pretty unrealistic – @JNilssonWright, @BBCWorldatOne pic.twitter.com/oXyaJrGSau

— Chatham House (@ChathamHouse) January 3, 2017

I guess we will see in the coming months what President-elect Trump means when he says the North Korean’s ICMB test “won’t happen”:

President-elect Donald Trump contended Monday night that North Korea would not be able to develop a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, despite its claims to the contrary, and berated China for not doing enough to help stop the rogue state’s weapons program.

Trump’s declarations on Twitter came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year’s address that the country had reached the “final stages” of testing its first intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.

“It won’t happen!” Trump tweeted.  [Stars & Stripes]

It looks like Kim Jong-un is setting conditions for a Key Resolve fireworks show:

North Korea is likely to conduct missile provocations in the first half as the country announced that its preparation for test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has entered the final stage, experts said Sunday.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s message claimed the country is in the final stage of preparing to launch an ICBM, heralding the country’s intent to jack up tensions in coming months.

Pyongyang is known to be developing a road-mobile ICBM, known as KN-08, which has a range of more than 13,000 kilometers and may be capable of flying as far as the U.S. mainland. But the North has never conducted an actual test of that missile.

Experts said that North Korea will focus on advancing its nuclear and missile capability in the new year, raising the possibility it would be engage in more powerful provocations around its key anniversaries in the first half. [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but for those unfamiliar with Key Resolve it is an annual US-ROK military exercise that happens every March that the North Koreans typically commit some kind of provocation in response to.

Reports like this make think this could just be disinformation coming out of North Korea:

North Korea is building intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch pads on trains, the U.S.-based Radio Free Asia (RFA) said Wednesday.

“Technicians from the second economic committee have been building a mobile ICBM launch pad since May,” a North Korean citizen living in Gangwon Province said. “The factory makes six freight trains a month and will be used as ICBM mobile launch pads.”

The trains were customized to withstand missile launches, the source said. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Considering how vigorously the Kim regime is conducting missile testing this estimate sounds about right if conditions don’t change:

Former U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti has expressed strong concern that North Korea could have proven intercontinental ballistic missile capability in three to four years.

“I think we need to continue in every way we can to put pressure on this country to bring them to follow the United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Scaparrotti said during the Aspen Security Forum in Washington on Thursday, according to the Defense Department news.

“I am very concerned about what he has today, but I am more concerned about what he will have in three or four years — when he has a proven intercontinental capability, when he has perhaps figured out the submarine capability and when he has built more nuclear devices,” he said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Scaparrotti, currently NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, also said that the sanctions brought against the North Korean leader were a good step and also expressed support for the planned deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.