Tag: John Bolton

A candidate for a future Secretary of State under the Donald Trump administration says that there is “zero” chance of a pre-emptive US strike on North Korea:

John Bolton, considered a top candidate for secretary of state under the incoming administration of Donald Trump, said Wednesday the U.S. won’t launch a preemptive strike against North Korea, according to a South Korean lawmaker.

Bolton, who served as a top nonproliferation official under George W. Bush and is known for hawkish views on North Korea and other security threats, made the remark when he met with a group of South Korean lawmakers, according to Rep. Na Kyung-won of the ruling Saenuri Party.

Bolton even said there is “zero” chance of a U.S. preemptive attack on the North, according to Na.

“He said he’s well aware of how much price South Korea should pay in that case,” the lawmaker said. “He said the North Korean nuclear issue is being considered a top issue of concern due to the North’s nuclear tests and missile launches.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

John Bolton continues to do great work at the UN by nearly getting the United Nations Security Council to approve sanctions against North Korea that actually has some teeth in them:

  Article 8 of the draft resolution says all UN member nations are to prevent all goods, equipment, products and technology related to North Korea’s nuclear development from going into the country, and that such materials are banned from direct or indirect transfer to the North via land and sea. It also covers luxury goods.

Member nations will be obliged to freeze financial assets owned and managed by individuals and organizations proven to have helped the North develop weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms and missiles. When it comes to the contentious issue of inspections of North Korean vessels, UN members are called on to take “cooperative action” as necessary under their own domestic law and in a way that does not violate international law.

Basically what I’m getting out of reading this resolution is that anything related to the NK nuclear program will be hit with sanctions including even luxury items for the regime.  So Kim Jong-il may have some less cognac in stock this winter.  The sanctions also hit North Korean leaders with a travel ban.  It will be interesting to see how the travel ban is implemented.  Does it mean Kim Jong-il can’t take train journeys to Russia and China anymore?  Or Kim’s son can’t take family holidays at Tokyo Disneyland as well?

The big item in the sanctions is the cargo inspections of North Korean ships.  The way I interpret the sanctions is that the US and it’s allies can conduct cargo inspections.  If cargo inspections of North Korean ships is implemented expect some kind of incident to happen, because these inspections would shut down the North Koreans drug trade activities.  To move their drugs the North Koreans would have to ship them over land through China which could be potentially embarrassing for the Chinese.  Plus if the US does implement  the sanctions they should be very careful about having the Japanese help with the inspections because a fire fight for example between the North Koreans and the Japanese may bring up old imperial Japan sentiments in South Korea and China no matter how outrageous they may seem.

The US media is playing it that the sanctions are weak because it does not hit North Korea with full sanctions on all their economic activities.  My response to that is what other economic activity does North Korea have?  Drug running and counterfeiting?   Now the big question for South Korea will be the Kaesong and Kumgangsan economic projects with North Korea:

The draft resolution is still ambiguous in determining the kinds of transactions UN members are prohibited from conducting with North Korea. When it is put into action, however, such inter-Korean business projects as the Kaesong Industrial Complex and package tours to Mt. Kumgang, which are cash cows for the North, will come under the scrutiny of a committee to be established in the UN to monitor whether member countries are adhering to their obligations. The UN will put more pressure on Seoul to inspect North Korean vessels in the East and West Sea.

The US would have to prove that these projects provide money for the North Korean weapons programs.  Though it is obvious that they are, it would be difficult to prove.  Expect these programs to continue under the Roh Administration but once a new South Korean president is elected next year expect them to end.

The final vote and approval of these sanction should happen in the next 24 hours.

More sanctions coverage at One Free Korea (particularly good) and the Marmot.

This resolution is actually quite impressive that US Ambassador John Bolton was able to get both the Russians and the Chinese to back this resolution against North Korea:

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose weapons-related sanctions on North Korea in response to its flurry of missile tests earlier this month.

The resolution demands that North Korea suspend “all activities” on its ballistic missile programs.

It requires all U.N. members to prevent imports from or exports to North Korea of missiles and missile-related items as well as materials that could be used in weapons of mass destruction.

To avert a veto from China, the resolution does not mention Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which is used on a legally binding document. But Security Council members say the resolution is mandatory because of the way it is worded.

China and Russia had originally proposed weaker language, but agreed to a tough resolution. They expressed fears that Chapter 7 would lead to military action as in Iraq.

The real judge of this resolution is going to be how well it is enforced.  Remember Saddam Hussein had sanctions leveled against him by the UN and from first hand experience I can tell you that the sanctions did not stop him from buying lots of weapons for his war machine from the usual sources such as the Russians and even so called US allies like France.  So quite possibly the Chinese and Russians signed on to this resolution knowing full well it will only be enforced by the US and the Japanese only.

Here is what the North Koreans think of the sanctions:

North Korea’s envoy to the United Nations warned Saturday his country would be forced to take “strong physical action” should it be pressured on its “self-defensive” missile launches, protesting a resolution passed unanimously by the U.N. Security Council condemning his government.

Amb. Pak Gil-yon, addressing the council, said North Korea “totally rejects” the resolution and vowed Pyongyang will “go on with missile launch exercises as part of its efforts to bolster deterrent for self-defense in the future.”
He said the United States has “totally hamstrung efforts” for sincere dialogue on North Korean issues by applying financial sanctions.  He also accused the U.S. of threatening the North with military exercises targeting it.

At least these sanctions are something against North Korea, but don’t expect this resolution to solve the North Korea problem.  This resolution just makes it a little bit more difficult for North Korea to import parts for their missiles and in turning selling them internationally.  This just tightens the noose a little bit more on North Korea’s sources of hard currency and hopefully will ultimately make them more likely to return to six party talks seeking to make a deal over their nuclear program.  At least that is the hope, but I remain skeptical.