South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s televised summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday was spectacularly effective as pageantry aimed at South Koreans fearful of a U.S. attack on North Korea — and spectacularly empty in terms of meaningful commitment by the North to denuclearization. In fact, everything Kim put on the table was designed to reaffirm North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons state and dilute Chinese and South Korean support for sanctions. Many veterans of negotiations with North Korea worry that Kim is now getting ready to play the United States. While the Trump administration’s tough sanctions no doubt had some role in pushing the North toward this summitry, one can also imagine exactly how this was a scenario the North itself sought from the beginning. [Foreign Policy]
Green then goes on to write a satire email from Vice Marshall Kim Jong Gak, director of the Political Bureau, Korean People’s Army to Kim Jong-un on their peace strategy. Here is an excerpt from the email:
You will pledge seemingly historic commitments that are all unverifiable and easily reversed, many of which we have deployed successfully in past negotiations. These include your commitment (like your father’s and grandfather’s) to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, your pledge to join the global quest for denuclearization as the other nuclear weapons states have pledged to do under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a promise not to transfer nuclear weapons to third parties, a no-first use pledge, and a promise to halt testing and to shut down our nuclear test site at Punggye-ri (for added drama, you might invite inspectors to the facility).
These commitments all parrot the aspirations of the current members of the nuclear weapons club and will thus confirm our membership in that club as we negotiate arms control with the Americans as a fellow nuclear weapons state. We, of course, made no commitment to cease production and deployment of our deterrent. We can easily reverse all these steps later, at the time of our choosing, yet already many in the imperialist and puppet media are proclaiming these meaningless declarations on your part to be a historic breakthrough.
I recommend reading the whole thing at the link, but as I have been saying since this whole peace initiative began, the Kim regime was conducting a facade. The North Koreans are very good at executing facades and Kim Jong-un has shown a particularly great talent for it, so much so that he has most in the international media believing every word he is saying.
The short term goal of this facade is to create a perception of progress towards peace and denuclearization on the peninsula to justify South Korea reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park, restarting joint tourism projects, and other inter-Korean cooperation initiatives that will be huge cash cows for the Kim regime. In return the Kim regime will pretend to denuclearize and make other commitments that can easily be reversed at a time of their choosing.
The Kim regime’s long term goal backed by China is to get the United States out of South Korea. That is why there has been such a strategic messaging emphasis on a peace treaty to end the Korean War. If there is a peace treaty South Korean leftists could argue why US forces are still needed in South Korea? The Kim regime’s even longer term goal is to separate the US from Japan as well with their surrogates in the media already pushing ideas of removing the US nuclear umbrella for Japan as part of any denuclearization agreement.
The wild card in all of this is President Donald Trump. South Korea, China, Russia, and most in the international community are willing to pretend denuclearization and a lasting peace is happening. Will the United States? For all we know President Trump could be conducting his own facade. For the US to get international consensus to conduct any strike against North Korea all options will have to be exhausted. Since this supposed peace process has began President Trump has been saying all the right things and being very reasonable even agreeing to meet with Kim Jong-un.
Going into the negotiations President Trump could be very solid about stringent inspections to ensure denuclearization compliance. If the Kim regime does not agree to stringent inspections or agrees and then plays their old tricks against inspectors than President Trump could have his rationale to strike North Korea. Or maybe President Trump is willing to go along with the facade to get a Nobel Peace Prize like his rival Barack Obama did and then let some other future US president deal with the consequences when Pyongyang ultimately reneges on the deal. Time will tell but the next 1-2 years should continue to be interesting times on the peninsula as everyone involved continues to play their role in this great facade.
This photo captured from North Korea’s Central TV on April 26, 2018, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) talking with Chinese Ambassador to Pyongyang Li Jinjun while seeing off a special train carrying the bodies of Chinese killed in a deadly bus crash and those wounded at a station in Pyongyang the previous day. The April 22 accident left 32 Chinese tourists dead and two seriously injured. Four North Koreans also died. (Yonhap)
Yonhap news is focusing on how Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in are getting along quite well:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in (R) shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before their summit at the House of Peace, a South Korea-controlled building in the border truce village of Panmunjom on April 27, 2018. (Yonhap)
Off-topic ramblings, jests and quips during the historic encounter between the leaders of the two Koreas on Friday highlighted their growing rapport despite the security-heavy summit agenda.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un met for the third inter-Korean summit at the border truce village of Panmunjom at a time when their close bond is critical in charting a path for a lasting peace on the divided peninsula.
“When will I be able to go over (to the North)?” Moon said when he first met Kim near the Military Demarcation Line, with a throng of reporters jockeying to capture their greetings before their summit south of the inter-Korean border.
Kim, in turn, made a surprise proposal for the South Korean leader to walk into the North across the military demarcation line, a 50-centimeter-wide strip inside the Demilitarized Zone that has separated the peninsula since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Ice-breaking confabulations continued during their official tete-a-tete, where sensitive issues such as the communist state’s denuclearization and the establishment of a peace regime were up for discussion.
“I heard that you had tossed and turned early in the morning as you had to participate in National Security Council sessions … You should be accustomed to waking up early (by now),” Kim said, half in jest.
The young leader was referring to a series of top-level security talks Moon held last year with his security and foreign policy aides to discuss responses to Pyongyang’s unrelenting provocations, including the sixth and most powerful nuclear test in September last year. [Yonhap]
Here is a bit of a surprising admission by Kim Jong-un:
When Moon mentioned his wish to travel to Mount Baekdu via the North, Kim said he is worried about the traffic inconvenience in the North that Moon might experience — a rare admission of his country’s poor infrastructure.
“The high-speed train (in the South) appeared to be good … When you come to the North after living in such a condition, I may feel embarrassed (because of the inconveniences),” Kim said. [Yonhap]
The Korea Times is reporting that Kim Jong-un has offered to visit Cheongwadae in Seoul:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he was willing to visit Cheong Wa Dae anytime if President Moon Jae-in invites him, during their summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom, Friday.
He also proposed the two leaders meet more often.
When the two leaders inspected a South Korean traditional honor guard before starting the bilateral talks, Moon told Kim that the ceremony was scaled down because of the limited space in the truce village, chief presidential press secretary Yoon Young-chan said in a media briefing after the first round of talks in the morning.
“Moon told Kim that if he came to Cheong Wa Dae, he could show him a much better ceremony. Then Kim said, ‘Is that so? I would come anytime if you invite me,'” according to Yoon. [Korea Times]
The Joong Ang Ilbo has a report about the entourage that traveled to Panmunjom with Kim Jong-un:
Nine key aides of Kim Jong-un will accompany the North Korean leader when he crosses the border today for a first-ever summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The delegation is a wide-ranging entourage of party loyalists, cabinet members and military officers that reflects Kim’s ambition to discuss multiple issues related to his country’s long-strained ties with South Korea.
Im Jong-seok, Moon’s chief of staff, told reporters on Thursday at the summit’s main press center in Goyang, Gyeonggi, that Kim Jong-un’s delegation would include Kim Yong-nam, the nominal head of state who serves as president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature; and Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party and director of the committee’s United Front Department.
Other high-ranking party members include Choe Hwi, vice chairman of the Central Committee who chairs the State Physical Culture and Sports Guidance Commission within the North’s powerful State Affairs Commission; Ri Su-yong, vice chairman of the Central Committee and director of the committee’s International Department, which handles foreign affairs; and Kim Yo-jong, first vice director of the Central Committee’s Propaganda and Agitation Department and Kim Jong-un’s younger sister.
Military officials include Ri Myong-su, chief of the Korean People’s Army’s General Staff, the equivalent of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Pak Yong-sik, minister of the people’s armed forces, who plays the role of defense minister.
Other cabinet members include Ri Yong-ho, minister of foreign affairs; and Ri Son-gwon, chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country, which handles relations with South Korea.
[Joong Ang Ilbo]
The Hankyoreh has an article discussing how President Moon is proposing a liaison office at Panmunjom:
During the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that is scheduled for Apr. 27, South Korean President Moon Jae-in reportedly intends to propose setting up and running a permanent deliberation and liaison office at Panmunjeom that would serve as an inter-Korean mission. Moon also reportedly means to propose establishing and operating inter-Korean joint committees to serve as permanent bodies for consultation in areas including politics, the military and the economy.On Apr. 24, multiple sources who are familiar with the preparations that are being laid for the inter-Korean summit said that South Korea would be proposing a liaison office at Panmunjeom during the summit. While it is too early to be certain, the sources said, an agreement was possible. [Hankyoreh]
Here is a Arirang News video of Kim Jong-un crossing the Military Demarcation Line:
Here is a Yonhap wrap up of the Inter-Korean Summit:
Overall I would say Kim Jong-un continues to skillfully execute his charm offensive in an effort to convince the ROK populace to once again give the Kim regime billions of dollars in aid for likely little to nothing in return. I guess we will see if President Trump will be as easily convinced as Moon Jae-in is that this time the Kim regime is different.
I don’t see what is so hard about putting together a profile of Kim Jong-un?:
U.S. intelligence experts are trying to build a profile of Kim Jong-un to give President Donald Trump a competitive edge in one of the most consequential summits since the Cold War, but they face a huge challenge – figuring out a secretive North Korean ruler few people know much about.
Following a long tradition of arming U.S. presidents with political and psychological dossiers of foreign leaders ahead of critical negotiations, government analysts are gathering every new bit of information they can glean about Kim and making adjustments to earlier assessments of what makes him tick, U.S. officials told Reuters.
They will rely in part on the impressions drawn by CIA director Mike Pompeo, who just weeks ago became the first Trump administration official to meet Kim. Pompeo, Trump’s pick to become secretary of state, came back from Pyongyang privately describing the young North Korean leader as “a smart guy who’s doing his homework” for the meetings, according to one U.S. official, who described Pompeo’s personal view of Kim for the first time. [Korea Times]
Here is what the experts appear to be settling on:
The emerging U.S. consensus on Kim is similar to what many outside experts have publicly concluded. He is seen as a “rational actor,” said U.S. officials – not the “total nut job” that Trump once branded him. He craves international stature but his main aim is “regime survival” and perpetuating his family dynasty, suggesting it will be hard for him to agree to full nuclear disarmament, the officials said.
You can read the rest at the link, but maybe the CIA should hire the ROK Drop for psychological profiles because myself and others on this site have been saying for years that Kim Jong-un is a rationale actor and not the crazy nut job that others have been concluding that he is.
Kim does not want to be the next Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi, dictators that were eventually executed by their own people. Kim’s inheritance is a mafia state which his father Kim Jong-il understood that only someone willing to be ruthless could run. That is why his oldest son Kim Jong-nam was passed over because he was simply too nice to run a mafia state. Kim Jong-un on the other hand was clearly the correct choice because he has shown he is willing to take whatever measures are necessary to ensure the regime’s survival.
I would call Kim Jong-un many things (e.g. purveyor of crimes against humanity) but "very honorable" is not one of them. Nor would I say "I'd be very honored to meet Kim Jong-un as Trump did earlier.
It looks like President Trump is starting his own charm offensive before his summit with Kim Jong-un:
U.S. President Donald Trump praised North Korean leader Kim Jong-un Tuesday for being “very open” and “very honorable” ahead of their potential meeting in May or June.
Trump made the remark as he prepares to sit down with Kim to talk about the denuclearization of the regime.
“We are going to be having a meeting with Kim Jong-un, and that will be very soon,” Trump said at the start of talks with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House. “We have been told directly that they would like to have the meeting as soon as possible and we think that’s a great thing for the world.”
The North Korean leader has expressed a commitment to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, and Trump has agreed to meet Kim in May or early June.
The two sides have been having “very good” discussions, Trump said. “Kim Jong-un — he really has been very open and, I think, very honorable from everything we’re seeing.” [Yonhap]
It looks like Kim Jong-un is highly concerned about losing Chinese tourists and their money after this horrible bus accident in North Korea:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited survivors in hospital, calling the bus crash his people’s “own misfortune”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed his “bitter sorrow” after dozens of Chinese tourists were killed when a bus they were travelling in plunged off a bridge.
Thirty-two Chinese tourists and four North Koreans perished in the accident south of Pyongyang Sunday night, Chinese officials and state media said. Two other Chinese nationals were injured.
In a rare admission of negative news from North Korea’s tightly controlled propaganda network, the KCNA news agency on Tuesday said Kim met personally with the Chinese ambassador in Pyongyang and later visited survivors in hospital.
The Rodong Sinmun newspaper, the mouthpiece of the ruling party, carried a front-page on Kim’s actions, including pictures of him in a doctor’s white coat, holding the two survivors’ hands as they lay in their hospital beds. [AFP via a reader tip]
You can read more at the link, but such a high profile appearance by Kim Jong-un probably means that the North Korean driver was at fault for the accident as well.
Mike Pompeo met with KJU 3-4 times during his 3-day stay in Pyongyang per Asahi Shimbun. KJU reportedly said he's on the same wavelength with Pompeo: "This is the first time I'm meeting someone who has the same fire in the belly as I do" (loose translation)https://t.co/frgRdVqTmj
I hope Kim Jong-un is sincere about this, but I remain extremely skeptical:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is said to have sent his message to the Trump administration that he would accept a denuclearization verification and intensive inspection by international inspectors including the International Atomic Energy Agency’s visit to its nuclear facilities. Kim, who announced that the regime would shutter a nuclear site in Punggye-ri over the weekend, is reported to have made more detailed reference to the possible inspection and verification for denuclearization. With the upcoming bilateral summit between Washington and Pyongyang, the negotiations on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will go more smoothly.
CIA director and Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo secretly met with Kim earlier this month to lay the groundwork for direct North Korea-U.S. talks under the condition of the regime’s complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization, South Korea’s intelligence agency said on Monday. Acting as a special envoy for Trump, Pompeo strongly urged North Korea to allow an international verification procedure to check that regime dismantles the nuclear program.
Kim reportedly said he would freeze the nuclear program, report any nuclear activities, and allow international inspectors to visit its facilities only if Washington engages in sincere negotiations, according to observations by South Korea’s intelligence agency. Pompeo is reported to have raised the need for intensive verification procedure in a short period time, citing that North Korea previously expelled IAEA inspectors. He also said inspectors may have to carry out a special inspection into nuclear facilities additionally, if necessary. Kim is said to have not raised any objection to these demands. On the timing and scope of nuclear inspections, Kim will, however, make more cautious decisions after taking into deep consideration what he will gain in return. [Donga Ilbo]
