I think before anyone gets to critical or excited about yesterday’s announcement that President Trump plans to meet Kim Jong-un by May, first lets see if in fact it happens. A lot can happen over the next two months to where this does not happen. However, if it does happen what does each side hope to get out of this US-DPRK summit? Oh Young-jin from the Korea Times provides his viewpoint in the below article that President Trump is essentially being a showman trying to win a Nobel Peace Prize:
But what prompted Rocket Man to offer an invitation and the Dotard to take it?
There can be many circumstances in play for the summit, making but only one fundamental and undeniable fact ― a meeting of their mutual interests.
From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, a meeting with Trump would be of great benefit instantly for a change of air, so to speak. There is much speculation, some well thought out, that the U.S. might preemptively strike Pyongyang to stop it from making nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that can hit the U.S. Then there are international sanctions that are putting a stranglehold on the impoverished nation.
Plus, if the North has not mastered its weapons of mass destruction, it is very close to it. Last November, it declared it had become a nuclear weapon state. Meeting Trump would buy time in the lead-up to May while the summit is being prepared and for months or so in the post-summit afterglow.
Even if the two reach major agreement ― renunciation of nuclear weapons or a return to the global nuclear regimes such as rejoining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ― the North would have an option of procrastinating.
That way, Kim would outlast Trump, who has three years left in office, with a lot of domestic challenges ahead. If Trump manages to get reelected, Kim might become mellower and not likely dare wage a potential nuclear war. All he would have to do is prepare for the next U.S. president.
For Trump, the summit would be an awesome ego trip ― showing the world and detractors that after all he is a great politician and statesman that they have failed to recognize.
Trump also could mock his detractors by saying his negotiating skills, as shown in his “The Art of the Deal,” had paid off in dealing with the North. He would set out to do what Bill Clinton, the husband of his nemesis Hillary Rodham Clinton, had failed to do ― go to Pyongyang to seal the denuclearization deal.
Perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize would cap his presidency through a “kind” of deal with the North. That would make him equal to Barack Obama, Trump’s Democratic predecessor who won the Nobel Prize at the start of his presidency. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump may be a showman, but I would be surprised if he agrees to anything that does not lead to the denuclearization of North Korea during his Presidency. I haven’t seen any indication that the Trump administration wants to mortgage this problem off to someone else like prior Presidents have done.
Congressman Ed Royce who has been heavily involved with legislation involving North Korea believes the sanctions are working and President Trump needs to break the cycle of using talks to extract concessions and buy time:
Republican Rep. Ed Royce of California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement after the announcement, “Kim Jong-un’s desire to talk shows sanctions the administration has implemented are starting to work.”
Royce said that it is important to break the cycle of the North Korean regime using talks to extract concessions and buy time, adding, “The United States and South Korea must stand shoulder-to-shoulder in applying the sustained pressure needed to peacefully end this threat. And Beijing must do its part.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
If North Korea agrees to a Libya like denuclearization and ending of their ICBM program everyone will assuredly welcome that. With that said I would also be very surprised if North Korea agreed to full denuclearization. As I have stated before the Kim regime would likely like to get a freeze deal signed in return for reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism tours with South Korea that would effectively end sanctions against them. The freeze deal would continue the cycle of the Kim regime getting major concessions for little to nothing in return since they can restart their nuclear and ICBM programs at a time of their choosing like they have done with past deals.
ROK Drop favorite Dr. Andrei Lankov believes the Kim regime will negotiate for more time just like Congressman Royce warns about:
One expert told NK News that Thursday’s news suggests that this policy has, for the time being, “worked.”
“His pressure policy has succeeded in stopping the North Korean missile program, and basically pushed them to the negotiating table,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group, which owns and operates NK News.
“However, this does not mean this policy will keep working,” he warned. “Trump is likely to push for greater concessions, and there are limits of how hard he can push.”
“Most likely the North Koreans are going to win time, but if the U.S. starts pushing too hard for denuclearization Trump won’t get what he wants and it might backfire.” [NK News]
So ultimately this summit may not lead to anything, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t helpful to Trump’s goal of denuclearization. In the future if military action is taken, a summit with Kim Jong-un can be pointed to as one more thing the Trump administration has done to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue.
This photo provided by South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (third from L) posing for a group picture with special envoys of South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Pyongyang on March 5, 2018. They are (from L) Yun Kun-young, a Cheong Wa Dae official in charge of a policy monitoring office, Chung Eui-yong, chief of the National Security Office, Kim, Suh Hoon, head of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), Vice Unification Minister Chun Hae-sung and Kim Sang-gyun, a senior NIS director. (Yonhap)
The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal. However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:
In this photo released by the North’s Korean Central News Agency, President Moon Jae-in’s special envoy Chung Eui-yong, center left, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on Monday. Kim is holding a letter from Moon delivered by Chung. Behind Kim is his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong. [YONHAP]South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.
Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.
President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.
“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.
“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.” [Korea Times]
It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year. They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:
North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.
“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.
The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.
“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.
Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics. [Korea Times]
We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons. Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility. What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it. Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects. As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.
To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:
“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional. I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure. This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea. This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.
With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea. Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US. Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.
This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return. All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have. If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.
This is all laying the groundwork for when the Inter-Korean Summit will eventually happen:
This photo, provided by South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae, shows Kim Yong-chol (L), North Korea’s point man on South Korea, holding a meeting with special envoys of South Korean President Moon Jae-in at a Pyongyang Hotel on March 5, 2018. (Yonhap)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hosted a welcome dinner for South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys on Monday, Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said.
“Chairman Kim Jong-un is currently hosting a dinner for the special envoys,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a press briefing.
It is the first time the reclusive North Korean leader has met South Korean officials. The dinner began at 6 p.m.
Kim’s meeting with the South Korean envoys apparently reflected his willingness to improve his country’s ties with the South.
Moon and his aides have repeatedly highlighted the importance of talks between the U.S. and North Korea for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and have also noted that the trip by Moon’s special envoys was partly aimed at arranging such dialogue.
“I plan to hold in-depth discussions on various ways to continue talks between not only the South and the North, but also the North and the United States and the international community,” Chung Eui-yong, Moon’s chief envoy and head of the presidential National Security Office, said shortly before his departure for Pyongyang. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but who is Chung Eui-yong? He is a career diplomat that from 2001-2004 during the liberal Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations served as South Korea’s UN ambassador. He would then get elected as a legislator for the same party that President Moon is in. So obviously Choi and Moon and been around each other a long time and Choi is someone that Moon trusts to represent his interests with the North Koreans.
An unidentified man impersonating North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears in front of the North Korean cheerleading squad during a Korea-Japan women’s ice hockey match of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, east of Seoul, on Feb. 14, 2018. He was removed by security officials soon after. (Yonhap)
Here is how scholar Michael Madden interprets a recent picture of Kim Jong-un with the North Korean delegation that recently returned from the Winter Olympics:
Hiding the notebooks behind their backs and thus clasping their hands in the Supreme Leader’s presence would be interpreted as highly disrespectful.
On the other hand, there could be a degree of spontaneity. Perhaps, meeting done, the photo session was impromptu and Mr Choe and Mr Ri did not have time to put their notebooks down.
We don’t know if the meeting was lubricated with wine toasts or liquors. Choe Hwi is relaxed and bemused, while Ri Son-gwon (being a former military intelligence officer) almost cracks a smile, in contrast to the fairly tense expression he wore throughout the weekend in the South.
Closer to Mr Kim, we find Kim Yong-nam holding hands with the North Korean leader.
There is an act of respect and deference on Kim Jong-un’s part as he is the one holding Kim Yong-nam’s arm.
On Kim Jong-un’s other side, again in an act of respect, Kim Yo-jong clutches her brother’s arm, like other officials that are subordinate to him. The Supreme Leader, when we look closely at his face, is amused at the whole scene. There is a subtle transparency here. (……)
The recently released photo is intended to show the more relaxed, freewheeling aspects of the North’s top leadership. It softens some of the sharp edges and shows a youthful leader so confident in his role and position in the regime that he is ready to deal with the South. [BBC]
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Jang Ryong-sik, chief conductor of the Samjiyon Orchestra which recently performed in the South, in this photo capture from the North’s Korean Central TV on Feb. 13, 2018. The North Korean art troupe had stage two performances during its visit to celebrate South Korea’s hosting of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. (Yonhap)
South Korean TV sees some parallels in the way the Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un are sending family members to the Winter Olympics. pic.twitter.com/DfRBUcWC9L
