Tag: Kim Jong-un

So much for all the “coup” talk, Kim Jong-un has reappeared. He was seen walking with a cane which confirms he likely was recovering from a surgery of some kind possibly to his ankles or knees:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made his first public appearance in more than a month, giving a “field guidance” at a newly built housing complex, according to Pyongyang’s state media.

The visit to the Wisong Scientists Residential District marked the first time Kim has appeared in public since he attended a musical concert on Sept. 3.

“Watching the exterior of the apartment houses and public buildings nicely decorated with diverse color tiles, he was very pleased to see them. He said they looked very attractive, presenting fantastic scenery,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency said.

Kim’s prolonged absence from public view, including his failure to show up at important national events, has spurred speculation and rumors ranging from health problems to a military coup, though the U.S. has dimissed rumors of a coup as “false.”  [Yonhap]

I wonder if the next time Kim Jong-un drops out of view for a while the same people will be publishing sensational articles again of a coup?  Unfortunately when it comes to North Korea it seems a lot of people’s wishful thinking is mistaken as analysis.

Kim Kyong-hui (inside the red circle), the aunt of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is shown on state television on Oct. 12, 2014, reinforcing views that she hasn’t been removed from the country’s power elite despite the execution of her once powerful husband, Jang Song-thaek. (Yonhap)

N. Korean leader fails to show on key national celebration http://t.co/pF8bPfhqTs

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) October 10, 2014

Via One Free Korea comes this article from the Guardian that is one of the few trying to tamp down the coup and regime collapse theories that are popular in the media currently:

But there is a less dramatic explanation. Based on the video evidence of his limp, it is widely accepted that Kim is now receiving medical treatment – possibly at one of the family’s well-appointed villas. The Seoul-based defector group, North Korea Intellectuals’ Solidarity, claims that Kim Yo-jong, his younger sister who acted as an aide to their father Kim Jong-il during his final years, is signing off on decisions in his absence.

Yet claims that Kim has been toppled are not supported by reports of internal North Korean lectures explaining the surprise visit to the Games. DailyNK, a South Korean media organisation staffed in part by defectors who have sources in the North, says civilians were gathered at workplaces and housing complexes on Saturday afternoon to hear the government’s explanation for the trip.

“Senior party and military cadres were dispatched all the way [to the Asian Games] for our athletes, who, without exception, honoured the Fatherland with their indomitable fighting spirit,” one lecturer explained. “With his great love and compassion, Marshal Kim Jong-un personally organised their dispatch, and provided them with a special plane,” she added.

The text for these lectures, a regular feature of life in North Korea, is produced centrally for dispatch throughout the land, and delivered without deviation. Not attending public lectures and teaching sessions is, officially at least, not an option – as mandated by the Ten Principles for the Establishment of the One-ideology System.

The result is that almost all North Koreans hear the same stories and lies, and remain on-message, however far they may be from the capital. In the absence of verifiable information on Kim’s status, they offer vital insight into what Pyongyang wants the country’s people to believe.

The suggestion that he is still at the helm, nominally at least, is supported by Choson Sinbo, an online publication run by the pro-North association of Korean residents in Japan, which reported that the visit to Incheon was “made possible by the resolve of Kim Jong-un”.  [The Guardian]

You can read more at the link.

It seems like some in the media are trying to make this out to be a big deal:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, who has not been seen in public for more than a month, is believed to be staying outside Pyongyang, South Korea’s defence chief said Tuesday.

“As far as I know, (Kim) is staying at a certain place north of Pyongyang,” Defence Minister Han Min-Koo said when lawmakers visited his office for a regular parliamentary inspection of military affairs, without elaborating on Kim’s whereabouts.

“I have received reliable information from our defence intelligence headquarters,” Han was quoted as saying by the Yonhap news agency. There was no official comment from the defence ministry.  [AFP]

You can read the rest at the link, but the Kim family has houses all across North Korea and if he did have some kind of medical procedure done, the regime may want to keep him away from prying eyes.  Going to a retreat away from Pyongyang for a while then makes sense. Maybe we should send Dennis Rodman in to find out?

Long time North Korea watcher Gordon Chang is wondering whether the North Korean regime has been toppled:

Out of sight for a month, young Kim is supposedly ill. But rumors are swirling he’s been deposed—and North Korea’s second most powerful man now feels confident enough to travel South.

Hwang Pyong So must be feeling pretty good about himself right now. At the latest Supreme People’s Assembly meeting, he was made vice chairman of the National Defense Commission. This was after his promotion to director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army, making him the top political officer in the military. In a country where there is supposed to be no No. 2 official, he is called the second-most powerful figure.

Now he has crossed the border into South Korea on a one-day, short-notice trip, triggering hopes of reconciliation between the arch-rival republics—and heightening speculation about the fate of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young supremo, who has not been seen in public since September 3.

Hwang’s trip South on Saturday comes on the heels of a widely publicized report that Kim has been deposed. Jang Jin Sung, a former North Korean counterintelligence and propaganda official, is claiming that the Organization and Guidance Department of the Korean Workers’ Party, responsible for promotions within the regime, has taken over the country. Kim, according to Jang, is now merely a “puppet.” [The Daily Beast]

I have said this before that I do not believe that Kim Jong-un has the absolute power that many people believe him to have.  I believe that his grandfather Kim Il-sung had absolute power, but when his son Kim Jong-il took over that the absolute power was diluted between the ruling Kim inner circle, the Worker’s Party, and the North Korean military.  These three sectors competed for power with the military ultimately becoming the most powerful bureaucracy in North Korea under Kim Jong-il.  These sectors of power in North Korea though likely ruled by consensus and when consensus could not be reached Kim Jong-il was likely the deciding vote which was heavily influenced by his backing of the North Korean military.  After Kim Jong-il’s death these sectors of North Korean power likely competed for influence again after Kim Jong-un took over.  Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-taek appeared to be trying to challenge the status quo by increasing the power of the Worker’s Party.  With the power of the Worker’s Party increasing, the military may have felt like their power was decreasing too much and took action to get rid of Jang to put the status quo back to where it was.  However, the status quo likely means Kim Jong-un has less power than his father did after the execution of Jang and the following purge of Party officials loyal to him.

With that all said do I think a coup is going on in North Korea?  No I do not.  Kim Jong-un is likely out of sight because of some surgery to repair whatever was ailing his feet or legs in recent months not a coup.  Also if you read the rest of the article North Korean scholar Andrei Lankov says the visit of the regime’s #2 man Hwang Pyong-so to South Korea is likely part of the North’s charm offensive.  Remember that the North likes to do charm offensive before launching a provocation cycle.  It has been reported recently that the North Koreans completed the upgrades to their launch site which could be interpreted to mean the North Koreans are going to do another space launch in the coming months.  The North Koreans do a charm offensive before provocations because they use a predetermined reason to accuse the South of spoiling the talks and then it allows them to justify a provocation cycle in response.  The predetermined reason this time could be the balloon launch activists the North has repeatedly threatened.

The most interesting thing to me is the travel ban that has been put on North Korea to include Pyongyang.  This could mean that more purges may be going on within North Korea as the military may be trying to further cement its power in North Korea over its competitors.  Time will tell what is really going on.

Kim Han-sol, a nephew of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, walks on the Le Havre campus of the prestigious French university Paris Institute of Political Studies, Sciences Po in Le Havre on Oct. 1, 2014. He is a son of the North’s late leader Kim Jong-il’s eldest son Kim Jong-nam. Kim Jong-nam was recently witnessed in Paris. (Yonhap)

It looks like the North Koreans have determined that Kim Jong-un’s gout is not going away and thus have begun a campaign to make excuses for it:

Young North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is suffering from “discomfort”, state media has said in the first official acknowledgement of ill health after a prolonged period out of the public eye.

Kim, 31, who is frequently the centrepiece of the isolated country’s propaganda, has not been photographed by state media since appearing at a concert alongside his wife on Sept. 3, fuelling speculation he is suffering from bad health.

He had been seen walking with a limp since an event with key officials in July and in a pre-recorded documentary broadcast by state media on Thursday appeared to have difficulty walking.

“The wealth and prosperity of our socialism is thanks to the painstaking efforts of our marshal, who keeps lighting the path for the people, like the flicker of a flame, despite suffering discomfort,” a voice over for the hour-long documentary said. (Reuters)

You can read more at the link.

It looks like Kim Jong-un gout is getting to him again:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was recently shown limping on state television, raising questions about the health of the 31-year-old dictator.

Some experts say that the full display of Kim walking with a limp was intended to convey that he was fully in charge and reassure, ironically, the public of his good health.

It is generally believed that an accident or health problem was the cause.

Kim looks obese for his young age. It is widely speculated that he had fattened himself to make him look like his grandfather and founder of the communist state Kim Il-sung to enable the younger Kim to ascend to power at a young age after his father, Kim Jong-il, died in late 2011.

Footage from Korean Central Television (KCTV) Tuesday showed Kim walking with a limp, favoring his left leg, during a visit to a newly built factory in August, called “the Oct. 8 Factory.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.