Tag: Moon Jae-in

It is pretty clear that President Moon and Kim Jong-un are going to be putting a full court press on President Trump to declare an end to the Korean War this year:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said his goal is to make “irreversible progress by the end of the year” toward denuclearization and a permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula in an interview on Friday.

A tangible step in that direction would be a formal declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice agreement, not a peace treaty, Moon told Indonesia’s Kompas newspaper in a written interview published two days after his special envoy returned from a trip to Pyongyang and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The interview came ahead of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s three-day state visit to Seoul kicking off Monday.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I expect a lot of flattery and pretend denuclearization concessions from the North Koreans to get him to agree to end the Korean War.  Kim is probably hoping that Trump will go along with the pretend denuclearization strategy as way to boost poll numbers prior to the mid-term elections in the US.  We should see over the next couple of months if pretend denuclearization will be what Trump decides to do.

So why are President Moon and Kim Jong-un so intent on end the Korean War?  That is because once the war is officially ended this then challenges the legitimacy of the US-ROK alliance.  If there is no longer hostilities between the two Koreas then why does the US military need to be there?

I believe that President Moon is too smart to advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

With the end of the US-ROK alliance Moon and Kim can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on North Korean terms.

President Moon needs to have his third Inter-Korean Summit hurry up and happen this month so he can get some more smiling pictures with Kim Jong-un to improve his rapidly dropping approval rating.  It dropped another six points this week because of economic woes:

A new survey finds President Moon Jae-in’s job approval rating has slipped below 50 percent for the first time.

Gallup Korea surveyed one-thousand adults nationwide, out of which 49 percent of respondents said the president is doing a good job. That’s down four percentage points from last week when the figure posted a new low.

It marked the first time for the president’s approval rating surveyed by Gallup Korea to stand in the 40 percent range.

Among those who had positive opinions about Moon’s performance, 16 percent picked improved relations with North Korea as the reason for giving a positive evaluation. Some eleven percent cited Moon’s North Korea and security policies while ten percent said they think the president gives his best and works hard.

Meanwhile, 41 percent of those who had a negative view about the president’s job cited lack of progress in addressing economic and livelihood issues as the reason for their evaluation. Some eight percent pointed at inter-Korean ties and seven percent at the minimum wage hike.   [KBS World Radio]

20 years is the sentence the Moon administration prosecutors are recommending that former President Lee Myung-bak be given if convicted of the corruption allegations against him:

Prosecutors on Thursday requested that a Seoul court sentence former President Lee Myung-bak to 20 years in prison for corruption and other charges.

The demand was delivered to the three-judge panel at the Seoul Central District Court in Lee’s trial that began in early May. Prosecutors also called for a 15 billion-won (US$13.4 million) fine and a forfeiture of 11.1 billion won for the disgraced ex-leader.

The court’s ruling is scheduled for Oct. 5.

Lee, president from 2008-2013, was indicted in April on 16 counts of corruption ranging from bribery, abuse of power and embezzlement to other irregularities. He has been under presentencing detention since his arrest in late March.

Lee’s charges center on long-held suspicions, which dogged him throughout most of his political career, that he is the real owner of an auto parts company named DAS and used his presidential powers to benefit the company as well as himself and his family.

Part of the bribes also includes $5.85 million in lawsuit expenses Samsung Electronics Co. allegedly paid on behalf of DAS.

The former Seoul mayor is also accused of taking about 11.1 billion won in bribes from the state intelligence agency and a former head of a state-run banking firm. Prosecutors suspect he embezzled about 35 billion won from DAS and used it for personal purposes.  [Yonhap]

Here is Lee Myung-bak’s response to the charges:

In Thursday’s hearing, Lee vented anger over the charges and maintained his innocence.

“I cannot stand how the charges against me have caught me in the trap of such a stereotypical image that everything is linked to money,” he told the court. “It is so humiliating as a person who has lived his whole life loathing corruption and back-scratching and being so vigilant against such things.”

Lee again denied ownership of DAS and said he never accepted anything from a conglomerate or its chief, referring to Samsung Group Chairman Lee Kun-hee.

“I do not own a single share in DAS … and I feel saddened, beyond rage, that (they) prosecuted me for freeing Chairman Lee in exchange for the lawsuit fees,” he said.

“All I have is the house I live in.”

It has long been suspected that the charges brought against Lee were political retaliation for the corruption investigation brought against former President Roh Moo-hyun during President Lee’s time in office.  Roh ended up committing suicide because of the investigation.  The Chief of Staff for President Roh was current President Moon Jae-in:

His lawyer accused prosecutors of carrying out a far-fetched investigation and called for a wise judgment by the court.

The charges against Lee are punishable by up to life imprisonment.

The scandal tainted his long-established image of a self-made man who started off as a salaryman and rose to the top post at one of the country’s leading companies in only 11 years, before he entered politics in 1992.

Lee has insisted this trial is political retaliation by the office of President Moon Jae-in over the death of late President Roh Moo-hyun, Lee’s predecessor. Roh committed suicide in 2009 while under a prosecution investigation into a slew of corruption allegations.

Lee’s associates have claimed that Moon, a key Roh ally who served as Roh’s chief of staff, is trying to force the same humiliation back on Lee.

The 76-year-old is the fourth former president to face a criminal trial after ex-Presidents Chun Doo-hwan, Roh Tae-woo and Park Geun-hye. Park is serving a 25-year jail term for corruption, pending a top court decision.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out, but considering the influence that the ruling party can have over the courts I fully expect that Lee will be convicted giving the Korean left the payback they have long demanded against former President Lee.

President Moon’s approval rating is still high, but has dropped by 23 total points since May.  The drop is largely due to the economic woes caused by the increase in the minimum wage.  If his North Korea engagement policies fail that will likely be what drops him well below 50%.  Remember President Moon was only elected President with 41% of the vote.  He has been given a lot of goodwill for his North Korea engagement by the ROK public that could quickly shift if real results don’t happen:

President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating continued to drop last week amid worsening economic conditions, a poll showed Monday.

Moon’s approval rating came to 55.2 percent in a survey conducted by Realmeter, down 0.8 percentage point from the week before.

The weekly survey was conducted Monday through Friday, involving 2,507 adults throughout the nation.

The reading was the third consecutive week the rating had dropped and was a record low since the president took office in May 2017.

Moon faces strong criticism for his iconic income-led growth strategy that seeks to boost the income of wage earners, which he says will lead to a rise in domestic consumption, revitalizing the whole economy.

Apparently swayed by the new government strategy, the tripartite commission on the minimum wage hiked it by 16.4 percent to 7,530 won ($6.75) per hour at the start of this year. The minimum wage is again set to jump 10.9 percent to 8,350 won per hour in 2019.

Such a steep increase, however, is believed to have forced local businesses to cut back on jobs instead.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Below are excerpts from some more great analysis by Professor B.R. Myers about the state of Inter-Korean affairs and the United States.  This first excerpt shows how President Moon really feels about the US-ROK alliance:

This is in line with the remarkable discretion Moon Jae-in has sustained since the start of his election campaign. Never does he speak more guardedly than when around foreigners critical of the North. Shortly after he took office I asked two Americans who had talked with him on separate occasions what impression they had got: “well-rehearsed,” said one, “well-drilled” the other. Had he given vent to the sort of anti-American, pro-North remarks Roh Moo Hyun went in for (though Roh was conservative in comparison), his policies would have encountered more resistance.

His base knows how he really feels. During the presidential election campaign in 2012 the novelist Kong Chi-yŏng, a prominent supporter, tweeted cheerfully that the Yankee-go-home candidate Lee Jung-Hee sounded “like Moon’s inner voice.” The conservatives pounced, and she had to do a quick Prufrock: It wasn’t what she’d meant at all. Since then the Moon camp has shown remarkable discipline. Professor Moon Chung-in is an exception of sorts, since it’s his job to send up trial balloons.  [B.R. Myers]

I have long believed that President Moon is just a better polished, smarter, and more disciplined version of former President Roh Moo-hyun.  Remember Moon was Roh’s Chief of Staff during his presidency, so learned well from all of Roh’s mistakes.  This discipline and political smarts he learned has allowed Moon to sell himself as a centrist when he is in fact a leftist.

This next excerpt shows how the Moon administration plans to implement their confederation plans with North Korea:

To assume that the two Korean administrations do not already see each other as confederates, and behave accordingly, albeit discreetly, is like assuming that a man and woman planning a marriage are not yet having sex. When we ask for Moon’s help in getting the other half of the peninsula to denuclearize, we are in effect asking this fervent nationalist to help remove the future guarantor of a unified Korea’s security and autonomy. Why should he comply? The only remaining point of the US-ROK alliance is to ease the transition to a confederation — which would obviate that alliance altogether.

The recent news of South Korean violations of sanctions (and of a presidential award just given to the main importer of North Korean coal) is merely illustrative. It’s trivial in comparison to the basic truth staring us in the face: No true liberal-democratic ally of the United States would think of leaguing up with an anti-American dictatorship, let alone one still in the thrall of a personality cult. I’m not sure whether the Trump administration is unaware of this or merely pretending to be.

At any rate a peculiar pattern has repeated itself every few weeks or so since Moon took office. It goes like this. First the Blue House is caught in some statement or act of disloyalty to the spirit of the alliance — like appointing an unrepentant former enforcer of North Korean copyrights to the second most powerful post in the government. (I don’t mean the prime minister.) South Korean conservatives then shout in chorus, “The Americans won’t stand for this!” Whereupon the White House rushes to say, in effect, “Oh yes we will!” It seems to revel in making pro-American, security-minded South Koreans look foolish.  (…….)

It’s therefore easy to imagine Trump or Pompeo expressing support for whatever “peace system” Moon and Kim happen to agree on, so long as progress toward denuclearization is made first. Any significant step in that direction — which we can expect the upcoming Pyongyang summit to announce with great fanfare — would then compel the US to sign off on  confederation, thus encouraging the South Korean public to do likewise. Before we know it, the ROK could be locked in an embrace it might eventually need American help to get out of.  [B.R. Myers]

As always I highly recommend reading the whole article from Professor Myers at the link, but at some point you would think the Trump administration would start pushing back on President Moon’s pro-North Korean agenda.  Possibly the suspension of Inter-Korean railway inspections by the United Nations Command is the start of a push back?

President Moon appears to be doubling down on his policies:

President Moon Jae-in called Saturday for an unswerving reform drive despite a falling approval rating and controversies over his economic policy.

He was speaking at an unprecedented gathering of all ruling party lawmakers, Cabinet members and presidential officials.

It came two days after Moon’s first Cabinet shake-up to replace five ministers, including the defense chief and the top education policymaker.

Late last month, the Democratic Party of Korea picked Rep. Lee Hae-chan, a seven-term lawmaker, as its new leader.

“The task of the times that we have to achieve together is clear,” Moon said at the meeting held at his office Cheong Wa Dae.

It’s to create a fair and just country through strong and constant reform measures, widely dubbed the “liquidation of past malpractices.”  [Yonhap]

I wonder which malpractices is he referring to?  Is the founding of the Republic of Korea one of the malpractices?  It may be considering how President Moon has denied that the ROK was not founded in 1948.

He pointed out that South Korea is at a time of a “grand shift.”

He stressed the need for addressing the gap between the haves and have-nots via an appropriate distribution policy and promoting the co-prosperity between South and North Korea on the basis of denuclearization and a peace regime.

What is an appropriate distribution policy?  The only distribution I have been hearing about is the ROK money expected to be redistributed to Kim Jong-un.  Also notice the term “peace regime” being used by Moon.  That is the preferred term now by ROK leftists to disguise their real intention of forming a confederation with North Korea.

To that end, the president said, Cheong Wa Dae, the ruling party and the government should make concerted efforts.

Moon, in particular, cited negative side effects from South Korea’s growth-oriented approach in the past, such as widening income disparity and misconducts by some vested powers.

Inter-Korean relations were once broken and the cloud of war was cast over Korea, he said.   [Yonhap]

President Moon does not like South Korea’s growth oriented economy that has brought remarkable affluence to South Korea in an incredibly short time? Also by vested powers is President Moon referring to the United States?

You can read more at the link.

A ROK Air Force general will now being taking over as the ROK Defense Minister.  This is the first time a ROK Air Force veteran will be defense minister in 24 years.  I wonder if this pick is to counterbalance the influence of the ROK Army that may not be as supportive of removing South Korean defenses along the DMZ as President Moon may like?:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday nominated the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as defense minister.

Jeong Kyeong-doo, 58, a former fighter pilot, would take over the ministry as the government seeks to reduce tension and build trust with North Korea, and at a time of uncertainty over relations with main ally the United States.

Jeong, who is set to replace incumbent Song Young-moo, does not need parliament’s approval but must attend a hearing and answer legislators’ questions.

He would be South Korea’s first defense minister with an air force background in 24 years, media reported.  [Reuters]

You can read more at the link.

After firing the head of Statistics Korea who also happened to be a female, President Moon has replaced the female Labor Minister as well:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s relatively new administration is becoming synonymous with high turnover, as more women appointees are either being replaced or resigning after a year of service.

Seoul’s Labor Minister Kim Young-joo, one of the few women in government to occupy a high position, publicly disclosed her decision to “resign” on her Facebook page, the Korea Times reported Friday.

Kim has weathered several controversies as the Moon administration introduced a 52-hour workweek and raised the minimum wage. The latter policy drew the ire of small to medium-sized South Korean businesses.  (………..)

Kim’s statement appears to be referring to the Moon administration’s decision to replace her with a newly appointed labor minister, Lee Jae-gap, who heads the Korea Workers’ Compensation and Welfare Service, according to the Korea Times.  [UPI]

You can read more at the link, but how much the economic numbers change will be interesting to see.  Expect the now largely state controlled South Korean media to parrot whatever the new economic numbers are in the future.

So what do you do as President when you don’t like the economic statistics?  You fire the person giving you the statistics and replace them with someone who will give you statistics you prefer:

The Moon Jae-in government is facing backlash for replacing the head of its economic statistics agency, whose reports have shown the economy spiraling downward amid hikes in the minimum wage and the government’s income-led growth strategy.

On Monday, lawmakers from opposition parties criticized the Blue House decision on Sunday to replace the Statistics Korea commissioner.

Floor leader of the Liberty Korea Party (LKP) Kim Sung-tae said the person that should be replaced is not the head of Statistics Korea but Moon’s top economic adviser Jang Ha-sung, one of the architects of the income-led growth strategy.

“It’s like scolding a person who shouted ‘fire’ instead of the person who started the blaze,” said the LPK floor leader Kim.

Ham Jin-gyu, head of the LKP policy committee, stressed that the sacking threatens the independence of the statistics agency.

“Statistics Korea is not a department that sets up policy but rather announces statistics,” Ham said. “It’s worrying to think of what future statistics releases will be, considering that the Statistics Korea commissioner is changed just because they are not happy [with the statistics showing the state of the economy].”

On Sunday, the Blue House announced it was replacing the commissioner of Statistics Korea, Hwang Soo-kyeong. This came as a surprise since she only served 13 months in the job, considerably shorter than the average two years of her predecessors.

There is widespread speculation that Hwang lost her job due to the recent unfavorable reports including the worst jobs report in eight and half years and several reports describing a widening income gap between the rich and poor.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but to make this look even worse is the fact that one of the few women in the ROK government was fired and replaced with a male.  It will be interesting to see how much the statistics change.

Well President Moon is the person that said that people need to shake off the “stereotype that the private sector creates jobs.”  This is what that belief leads to:

The government spent more than W50 trillion in 2017 and this year on its futile attempts to create jobs (US$1=W1,119). A lawmaker who is among candidates to become head of the ruling party blames the high unemployment on the W22 trillion the Lee Myung-bak administration spent a decade ago to dredge the four major rivers and waterways in the country. But the Moon Jae-in administration has spent twice as much money and only 5,000 jobs were created in July. In the past, when the government did not spend a single penny on job creation, jobs increased by around 300,000. Unemployment now stands above 1 million for the seventh straight month, while a record 1 million small businesses are expected to close this year.

W50 trillion is an astronomical amount of money. Not many countries have a total budget that size. After spending that much, the government needs to show some results, but there has been no progress whatsoever. So where has the money gone?

A closer look at the government’s job-stimulus objectives this year gives a vague idea. The government is paying W6 trillion to support the unemployed, while another W4 trillion is going into measures aimed at prodding the jobless to find work. That means around half of this year’s budget earmarked for job creation has in fact gone into supporting the unemployed and forcing companies to keep workers they do not need. And the W2 trillion allocated for job training is focused on short-term positions.

In fact, most of the jobs the government claims to have created have been short-term positions. About half of jobs it created last year by spending W11 trillion from the supplementary budget were for senior citizens, although the government said it aimed to boost youth employment. And those jobs will vanish as soon as government funding dries up. A study by the Labor Ministry shows that six out of 10 workers who found jobs through government programs quit in less than a year. Taxpayers’ money effectively turned into salaries for the jobless.  [Chosun Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but you have to love how the Korean left is trying to blame former President Lee Myung-bak for high unemployment when he has been out of office for nearly seven years.