Tag: Moon Jae-in

The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal.  However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:

South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.

Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.

President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.

“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.

“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.”  [Korea Times]

It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year.  They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:

North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.

“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.

The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.

“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.

Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics.  [Korea Times]

We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons.  Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility.  What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it.  Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects.  As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.

To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:

“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional.  I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure.  This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea.   This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.

With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea.  Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US.  Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.

This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return.  All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have.  If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.

That is what a professor from Hankuk University believes:

Professor Kim Jang-ho from Hankuk University believes that for this reason, the detente won’t last. He is also sceptical of President Moon’s motives and doesn’t believe there has been any breakthrough with North Korea.

“President Moon is trying to buy some time so that he can achieve a summit meeting with Kim Jong-un.

“Our president wants to meet him to symbolically say that North Korea is a normal nation and they are capable of talking. It automatically propels him to the list for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the US and Japan will pressure us to go ahead with military exercises as soon as possible, late April maybe.

“I think certainly with those exercises continuing, and they will go ahead definitely before May, we will go from the thaw to tension all over again.”

Many doubt North Korea’s willingness to discuss getting rid of its nuclear weapons with the US. Kim Jong-un has tried to reassure Seoul by saying his missiles are not pointing at South Koreans, they’re pointing instead at the “US aggressors”, and that they could be used to protect all of Korea.

I put it to Professor Bong Young-shik that North Korea would never give up its missiles. The research fellow at Yonsei University disagreed.

“The North Korean regime’s ultimate goal is survival and security,” the expert in North Korea said.  [BBC]

You can read more at the link, but before anyone considers President Moon for a Nobel Peace Prize they should realize that when he was the Chief of Staff for former President Roh Moo-hyun, they helped to funnel billions of dollars in aid that allowed the Kim regime to build their nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

You would think though that after the embarrassment of awarding a Nobel Peace Prize to former ROK President Kim Dae-jung the Nobel committee would be weary of awarding one to another ROK president.  This is because it was later discovered that the Inter-Korean Summit between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il was only possible after North Korea received a $500 million dollar bribe.

President Moon Jae-in and first lady Kim Jung-sook raise their hands in hurrah after a march in front of the Seodaemun Prison History Hall in Seoul on March 1, 2018. The day marked the 99th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement Day when people started nationwide rallies to demand Korea’s independence from Japanese colonial rule. The Seodaemun Prison is where many independence fighters were jailed and martyred. (Yonhap)

Via a reader tip comes this news that presidential advisor Moon Jung-in has been speculating recently that if President Moon Jae-in asks US forces to leave Korea, they should leave:

Moon Jung-in, mentor to President Moon Jae-in on foreign and North Korea affairs, often previews Seoul’s policy.

Now under question is his remark in a seminar in Washington, D.C., to the effect that U.S. forces should leave Korea, if its president shows the door. The comment was made in the context of explaining the structure under which the U.S. has wartime control of ROK forces.

The U.S. is said to be resistant to changing the structure, which would make the U.S. general subordinate to the Korean general.

Some experts say the U.S. would rather leave Korea than have its troops under ROK command.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would be surprised if the Pentagon signs on to any plan that allows a ROK general to command US forces.  ROK generals do not have the experience to command the hi-tech weapons, logistics, communications, and command & control systems that the US military brings to a fight.

This is why in the past it has been reported that if an OPCON change happens the US command will be downgraded to a three-star general in charge of an military organization called KORCOM.  ROK generals would take back control of all their forces during wartime, but would have no command authority over KORCOM.  Instead KORCOM would support the ROK military as needed.

If President Moon wants US forces out of Korea without explicitly demanding it; requesting that KORCOM fall under the command of ROK general would be the way to do it.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (L) and Ivanka Trump, the U.S. president’s daughter and senior advisor, walk out of a dinner reception at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul on Feb. 23, 2018. Ivanka Trump arrived in South Korea earlier in the day for a four-day stay to lead a U.S. delegation to the closing ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, which is scheduled for Feb. 25. (Yonhap)

Is it just me or Kim Yo-jong has a smug face at just about every event she has attended?:

President Moon Jae-in attended a North Korean art troupe’s concert in Seoul on Sunday, expressing hopes that the reconciliatory mood for inter-Korean dialogue would be maintained going forward.

President Moon and the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un both attended the performance in the evening, marking the fourth time Moon and Kim Yo-jong have met since they greeted each other during the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics on Friday.

Other members of the North’s high-level delegation were present for the concert, including the North’s ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam.

During talks made just before the performance began, President Moon said the meeting with Yo-jong and the North’s delegation was very important, saying, “the two Koreas should cooperate to make this reconciliatory meeting’s charcoal become a torch.”

The North’s ceremonial head of state, Kim, said in response, “It is very happy and impressive to share such precious times. I would go back with a new note of hope of getting together again, because we created an opportunity to meet frequently.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but as far as the performance goes it was choreographed to push the narrative of unification:

The grand finale of the concert was North Korean song, “Let’s Meet Again,” and a common Korean song titled, “Our Wish Is Unification,” both sung together by Seohyun, a member of South Korean pop group Girls’ Generation, and a North Korean female octet.

Seohyun, wearing a short, white minidress and high-heeled shoes, and the North’s octet ended the concert, performing in perfect harmony the song with a theme reflecting the two Koreas’ desire for reunification.

The performers hugged as the audience gave them a standing ovation.

Another highlight of the concert was the surprise appearance of Hyon Song-wol, head of the Samjiyon Orchestra, on the stage.

“I came here to the South by crossing the border twice. In the process I felt saddened by the reality that Pyongyang and Seoul are located so close but feel so far away from each other,” she said. “I’m in a bad condition because I have a sore throat from Gangneung, but please applaud me a little bit more loudly than other singers so I can save face as the director,” Hyon said, resulting in thunderous applause.

She then sang a North Korean song titled “Paektu and Halla Are My Fatherland.” Her solo performance was later joined by the North’s orchestra and female singers.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the narrative of unification is likely being used to justify holding a near term Inter-Korean Summit, make agreements to reopen Kaesong and the Kumgang Resort Tours, which will ultimately make ineffective the sanctions on North Korea.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (C) and first lady Kim Jung-sook (R) pose with Kim Yong-nam, North Korea’s ceremonial head of state, during a reception for ranking foreign delegates to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in the host town of PyeongChang, east of Seoul, on Feb. 9, 2018, hours before the sporting event’s opening ceremony. (Yonhap)

An Inter-Korean summit would likely be used to further weaken sanctions by agreeing to re-opening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the Mt. Kumgang Resort among other things:

Kim Yong-nam (R), North Korea’s ceremonial head of state, attends a dinner at a hotel in Gangneung, Gangwon Province, on Feb. 10, 2018. On the left is Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (Yonhap)

South Korea’s political parties showed mixed reactions Saturday to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s proposal to hold an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang at an early date.

The proposal was conveyed by Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, during a meeting with President Moon Jae-in at Cheong Wa Dae earlier in the day. Moon responded, “Let’s make it happen by creating necessary conditions.”

The ruling Democratic Party welcomed the meeting as a historic occasion in advancing inter-Korean reconciliation.

“The meeting created an important momentum for building peace on the Korean Peninsula,” Kim Hyun, party spokeswoman, said.

Noting Moon’s positive but cautious reaction, the party called for “mutual efforts to reduce tensions on the peninsula and cooperation from relevant countries.”

Opposition parties urged the government to be wary of the North’s true intentions.

“President Moon Jae-in and his government is getting caught up deeply into North Korea’s disguised peace offensive one step after another,” Rep. Jun Hee-kyung, of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party, said.

Behind the North’s peace overtures is its intention to cause a crack in international sanctions on the isolated country, she said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but here is what the Korea Times reported:

North Korea delegates sit at a table during their meeting with President Moon. / Yonhap

Moon expressed his hope to make the visit happen by creating the necessary conditions, according to the spokesman.

The President said the North Korean delegation’s visit to the South created the opportunity to hold a peaceful Olympics, relieved tension on the Korean Peninsula and improve inter-Korean relations.

“He also asked North Korea to be more open to talks with the U.S. , adding Pyongyang-Washington dialogue was also necessary to improve inter-Korean relations,” the spokesman said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but any planned summit would also give the Kim regime more time to work on their nuclear and ICBM programs.

I wonder how many sanctions busting demands Kim Yong-nam is going to demand from President Moon?:

President Moon Jae-in is considering having bilateral talks with North Korea’s Kim Yong-nam who will lead a high-profile delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games, according to Cheong Wa Dae, Monday.

The meeting, if it takes place, could speed up the thawing of inter-Korean relations which is a result of the North’s participation in the Games. Moon is also expected to try to encourage Washington-Pyongyang talks, as he will also meet with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence who is leading his country’s Olympic delegation.

Cheong Wa Dae welcomed the attendance of Kim, the president of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the nominal head of North Korea according to its Constitution.

“It is Kim’s first visit to South Korea, and he is the highest-ranking North Korean official ever to visit the South,” presidential spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom said. “His visit shows North Korea’s wishes to improve inter-Korean relations and for a successful Olympics. We recognize the North is showing a serious and sincere attitude.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension.  The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula.  I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:

South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.

The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.

Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.

“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.

“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.