There is an interesting read in the Joong Ang Ilbo about how secret talks between the US and North Korea led by the CIA have been going on for months that combined with the US pressure campaign helped lead to the current Kim-Trump summit:
Since last year, the United States has been aware of North Korea’s intent to resolve the nuclear crisis through a summit, a diplomatic source told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday, contradicting the idea that U.S. President Donald Trump impulsively decided to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“Using its own channels between the United States and the North, Washington detected last year Pyongyang’s idea that only a summit can resolve the issues,” said the source. He added that the North was persistent with the idea of a “top-down” approach and the U.S. leadership, including Trump, was frequently briefed about the situation.
Washington, however, didn’t pursue the idea of a meeting because it was implementing its “maximum pressure” campaign and because it was unsure of Pyongyang’s authenticity. The United States, therefore, decided to wait until North Korea offered talks.
“The United States believed that the appropriate timing would come when the North felt unmanageable pressure,” he said.
After the North decided to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Washington and Pyongyang began secret contacts, around Jan. 20, the source said.
The contacts became more active after the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) got information that the North wanted to have a meeting with Vice President Mike Pence on the sidelines of the opening ceremony in February. The State Department was completely excluded from the process, the source said. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but this helps explain why CIA Director Mike Pompeo was moved over to be the Secretary of State. The CIA has been the lead with ongoing secret negotiations with North Korea and moving Pompeo over to the State Department will bring them someone the Kim regime may already be comfortable interacting with prior to the summit.
The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal. However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:
In this photo released by the North’s Korean Central News Agency, President Moon Jae-in’s special envoy Chung Eui-yong, center left, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang on Monday. Kim is holding a letter from Moon delivered by Chung. Behind Kim is his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong. [YONHAP]South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.
Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.
President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.
“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.
“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.” [Korea Times]
It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year. They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:
North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.
“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.
The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.
“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.
Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics. [Korea Times]
We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons. Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility. What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it. Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects. As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.
To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:
“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional. I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure. This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea. This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.
With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea. Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US. Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.
This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return. All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have. If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.
The North Koreans are likely offering to hold talks now to get what they can get out of negotiations and then set conditions for their next provocation cycle:
A senior North Korean official said Monday that the reclusive state is willing to hold talks with the United States, noting the door for dialogue between the two countries remains open, according to an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.
The remarks from Kim Yong-chol, the North’s point man on South Korea, came in a meeting with Chung Eui-yong, chief of South Korea’s National Security Council and the top security advisor to President Moon Jae-in.
“Kim said the door remains open for dialogue with the United States. He said the North has also repeatedly expressed such a stance,” a ranking Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters, while speaking on condition of anonymity.
Kim’s remarks came one day after he told the South Korean president in a meeting that the North has enough willingness to hold bilateral talks with the United States.
He, however, attached no conditions for the talks, according to the presidential official.
The U.S. seemed to remain cautious, with White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders saying Washington will first see if Kim’s remarks represented the North’s first step toward denuclearization. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime has no intention of denuclearizing which means the talks will likely go no where. However, before the talks go no where the Kim regime will try to get concessions out of the ROK. The Moon administration is already floating the idea of suspending joint military exercises and economic aid for them suspending their nuclear and missile programs:
Moon has promoted a two-step roadmap to end the security crisis prompted by the North’s nuclear threats. According to his proposed first step, the North must place a moratorium on its nuclear and missile tests, freeze any further development of the technologies and join denuclearization negotiations. In return, the international community was to offer corresponding compensations. The second step would be actual nuclear dismantlement.
Moon, however, never made clear what Seoul and Washington would offer to Pyongyang in return for the first step, a freeze. Suspending or downsizing joint military exercises by South Korea and the United States has been discussed as a possible option, as well as an economic assistance package for the impoverished economy of the North. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
So basically the Kim regime gets significant concessions for doing nothing. The economic assistance will likely include the reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the restarting of Mt. Kumgang tours, and the opening of the Masik Ski Resort to tourism. This would essentially shred all the sanctions that the US has been trying to leverage against the ROK. That is why we will likely see a renewed push for a “freeze deal” in the coming weeks and months.
After the Kim regime gets all they can out of talks they will then restart their nuclear and missile programs and blame “US hostility” or some other made up reason. Their leftist supporters will of course all fall in line with the narrative. We have seen this all play out before. Any freeze deal they sign the Kim regime will find a way to cheat on it. I fully expect they will continue with short and intermediate range ballistic missile testing claiming this is okay because they are not ICBMs. I suspect they will use space launches to test their ICBM technology and claim it is for peaceful purposes. They have done this before.
They will also likely continue efforts to miniaturize their nuclear technology to put on ICBM warheads. Without inspections this will be easy for them to conceal. Even if they get called out for cheating they will just deny it and their apologists will come out in force to support them. Supporters of past nuclear deals kept claiming that North Korea was in compliance despite clear evidence they were not.
It will be interesting to see which direction the Trump administration wants to go. If they want to kick this can down the road to deal with later, the freeze deal is a way to do it.
Former Financial Times journalist John Burton thinks the Trump administration is to paternalistic with South Korea and should let them settle their own differences with North Korea:
John Burton
The U.S. has been doing itself no favors in its rather paternalistic response to the thawing relations between the two Koreas at the Winter Olympics.
The bottom line message emerging from Washington is that South Koreans cannot be trusted in handling Pyongyang. The U.S. is worried that North Korea is trying to drive a wedge in relations between Seoul and Washington. But the Trump administration’s own behavior is contributing to the possibility of any split.
And if the South Koreans can’t be trusted with their own security, then why should the U.S. be so concerned about defending them unless it is for some ulterior motive such as maintaining a military presence on the Asian mainland to counter China?
The fact is that the Koreans have reached out to each other because of fears that Trump might launch a “bloody nose” preventive attack that could result in appalling destruction across the Korean Peninsula. No wonder why Koreans want to give peace a chance.
But the U.S. has not reacted well to what is happening in PyeongChang. The American media has reported about South Koreans having been seduced by the wily charms of Kim Yo-jong, described as North Korea’s Ivanka Trump, and her accompanying “army of beauties.”
Many predict that her siren song is likely to result in President Moon Jae-in accepting her invitation to travel to Pyongyang and meet her brother, Kim Jong-un, who will trick the South Koreans into undermining the international sanctions regime against North Korea over its nuclear program. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but Mr. Burton is also upset with Vice President Pence not standing and showing respect to the North Korean delegation at the Winter Olympics. I have to wonder if Mr. Burton thinks the then Apartheid South Africa should have been allowed in the Olympics and shown proper respect as well?
Mr. Burton then goes on to say the South and North should be allowed to resolve their issues themselves without US interference. That boat has long ago sailed when North Korea decided to begin launching ICBMs and testing nuclear weapons capable of mass destruction in the United States. If North Korea was not conducting such activities threats of “bloody nose” strikes and “maximum pressure” campaigns by the Trump administration would not be happening.
Until North Korea gives up on these programs the United States will continue to have a vested interest in any negotiations between North and South Korea. Especially after the original Sunshine Policy that sent billions of dollars to North Korea is arguably the reason why the Kim regime now has nuclear and ICBM weapons to threaten the US with. Because of this the Trump administration rightfully should be advocating against any give aways by the Moon administration to the Kim regime for little or nothing in return.
HOW EXCITED ARE SOUTH KOREANS ABOUT THESE N-S TALKS EH Acc to live search rankings not as excited as about some actress, some actor, a girl group, an actress, a boy band, college acceptance rates, the UAE, an actress, a pickup truck, a drama… tomorrow's weather… pic.twitter.com/yYuYqO7Zq2
Here is one theory on what the Kim regime is attempting accomplish with its offer of talks with South Korea over its attendance at the upcoming Winter Olympic games:
But perhaps Kim is a smarter student of the cutthroat game of geopolitics than we give him credit for—seeking to delay a showdown on terms more favorable to him. What if Kim keeps the talks focused on his nation’s participation at the games—and asks for nothing in return?
If talks go smoothly and North Korea does indeed join the games he appears like a winner back home, having secured his nation’s place at the Winter Games. He could even send his sister, Kim Yo Jong, as the lead representative.
Kim could even score another PR victory: imagine athletes from a divided Korea marching into the Olympic stadium together under a unified flag—with members of the Trump family sitting in the same stadium looking on. With there being almost no downside to this for Kim, I would argue this is very likely what North Korea is banking on.
And here is where Kim could get quite slick. He could leverage the positive nature of the talks to propose many other sweeteners to enhance inter-Korean ties—restarting joint development projects, offering family reunifications and even going so far to propose an inter-Korean summit between the two heads of state. This would occur of course while not talking to the Trump Administration—and quite on purpose, dodging key questions about Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. Negotiations would move slowly—with North Korea adding to its list of demands over time, but not quite sabotaging the talks. Negotiations seem to start to drag on, but overall, there is hope—just what Kim is wants. [Harry J. Kazianis – Center for the National Interest]
You can read the rest at the link, but the analysis continues that eventually the Kim regime will restart missile tests while the negotiations continue. The restarting of the missile tests is to perfect the reentry technology they have yet to master. The talks will buy them time to do this which they may otherwise not have under the current dynamic of possible military action from the US. With ongoing negotiations the ROK may not support any US military action in response to continued testing. This has the potential of driving a wedge in the US-ROK alliance if the two allies do not agree with how to respond to renewed testing.
Here is what will be discussed and who will be discussing it at this week’s inter-Korean talks:
This file photo shows Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon (L), the chief South Korea delegate for high-level inter-Korean talks scheduled for Jan. 9, 2018, and his North Korean counterpart Ri Son-gwon, the chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country, the agency in charge of inter-Korean affairs. (Yonhap).
South Korea will seek to discuss ways to ease military tensions and reunite divided families during this week’s high-level talks with North Korea, Seoul’s chief delegate said Monday.
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon made the remarks one day before South and North Korea will hold their first formal talks in more than two years to discuss the North’s potential participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and ways to improve their ties.
“Basically, the two sides will focus on the Olympics. When discussing inter-Korean relations, the government will seek to raise the issue of war-torn families and ways to ease military tensions,” Cho told a group of reporters.
Cho will lead a five-member government delegation to the first inter-Korean dialogue since December 2015. The North’s chief negotiator is Ri Son-gwon, the chairman of North Korea’s state agency in charge of affairs with the South.
The South’s delegation also includes Vice Unification Minister Chun Hae-sung, who has a range of experience in inter-Korean talks. It will be the first time that the country’s top point man on unification and the vice minister are included together in a delegation. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but what is interesting is that the North Korean lead representative Ri Son-gwon is the long time aid of North Korean General Kim Yong-chol. Kim is believed to have been the person who planned the sinking of the ROK Naval vessel the Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeong island in 2010.
The selection of RI as a negotiator makes me wonder if he was specifically chosen to remind the ROK negotiators that if the Kim regime does not get what they want from the talks more Cheonan and Yeonpyeong island attacks could happen during the Winter Olympics.
The Moon administration seems giddy after Kim Jong-un’s New Year message offering to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics:
This photo, taken on Jan. 2, 2017, shows Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon proposing high-level talks with North Korea next week. (Yonhap)
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon proposed Tuesday holding high-level talks with North Korea, Jan. 9, to discuss its participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Cho’s offer came in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s message, in which he said he was willing to send a delegation of athletes to the South’s first Winter Olympics.
Minister Cho suggested holding the cross-border dialogue at the truce village of Panmunjeom. He said Seoul is open to discuss the timing, venues, methods and other preparatory steps regarding the talks with Pyongyang.
“We propose to hold high-level talks on Jan. 9 at the Peace House (on the South Korean side of Panmunjeom),” Cho said during a press conference at the ministry in downtown Seoul. “We’re willing to talk with the North freely over the necessary steps both sides must take. To do so, the dialogue channel at Panmunjeom should be restored promptly. We expect to hear a positive response from the North soon.”
If North Korea accepts, this will be the first cross-border dialogue since President Moon Jae-in took office in May 2017. It will also be the highest-level contact between the two Koreas since December 2015 when vice minister-level officials met. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but for long time Korea watchers like myself this is just another example of the pattern with North Korea of raising tensions with provocations and then conducting a charm offensive to get concessions. Once they get the concessions they will then break whatever agreement they made and blame the US and the ROK and restart the provocation cycle.
What is different this time is President Trump seems determined to enforce stricter sanctions and President Moon seems determined to start another Sunshine Policy particularly trying to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex. I can easily see a return to the failed Sunshine Policy causing tension politically between the US and the ROK which is likely one of the goals of the Kim regime if they do implement a charm offensive.
