I guess we will soon find out, however the big question is going to be will President Trump do something in response?:
Since late 2013, piles of rocky debris from the excavation of the site’s North tunnel system have grown quite large — now big enough to cover a football field, and quite high. It’s the largest pile ever observed there. Work on the excavation has recently slowed, quite likely signaling readiness for the next detonation.
New satellite images suggest that North Korea might soon conduct another underground detonation in its effort to learn how to make nuclear arms — its sixth explosive test in a decade and perhaps its most powerful yet.
North Korea’s nuclear tests have grown steadily more destructive, and the country continues to pursue its longtime goal of putting a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile capable of reaching targets around the globe.
The United States recently ordered an aircraft carrier and other warships toward the Korean Peninsula in a show of force intended to discourage the North from testing a nuclear weapon.
While examining satellite imagery, experts have observed a wide range of activity at Mount Mantap, a mile-high peak where North Korea conducts its nuclear tests. Beneath the mountain, a system of tunnels has been excavated for the past five detonations of the North’s nuclear bombs.
North Korea often marks significant dates with shows of military force, and analysts say it might detonate a nuclear weapon to celebrate the birthday this Saturday of the nation’s founder, Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of the current leader, Kim Jong-un. [New York Times]
The below theory does make sense because North Korea can get the technical data it needs from this test to advance their nuclear program and then use a nuclear freeze as bargaining chip to get free goodies from the incoming left leaning ROK government. Then at a time of their choosing North Korea can break the agreement again, blame the US and the ROK for some made up reason and continue testing. We have seen this before and it looks like whoever the incoming ROK government is wants to play this game again with the North. However, the real wild card is does President Trump want to play this game?:
An expert said Monday that North Korea may carry out an upgraded nuclear test before a key anniversary in late April to have an upper hand in relations with the next South Korea government.
The possible test is also likely to be the last before Pyongyang sophisticates its nuclear capability, according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
“The possibility of North Korea pushing ahead with a nuclear test before the (85th) anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army on April 25 cannot be ruled out,” Cheong said in a forum in Seoul.
“It is assumed that North Korea would finish sophisticating its nuclear capabilities through the last nuclear test ahead of the launch of a new administration in the South before seeking to mend the fence with the new administration using a nuclear test freeze as a negotiating card,” he noted. [Yonhap]
If the North Koreans conduct this nuclear test it seems they must be pretty confident that no matter what they do before the upcoming ROK presidential election that a Korean left wing candidate is going to win. Typically North Korean provocations cause voters to rally behind a Korean right wing candidate, but this may be an indication of how discredited the Korean right is after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye:
Another North Korean nuclear test is imminent, with preparations likely to wrap up this week, intelligence authorities in Seoul said Wednesday.
The test, North Korea’s sixth, could be conducted as early as next week
“We have intelligence that North Korea may conduct its sixth nuclear test in the first week of April and are in the process of confirming this,” said a South Korean military intelligence source who requested anonymity. “We have determined that North Korea is expected to finish all preparations for a nuclear test by March 31.”
There were expectations that the North could conduct a nuclear test ahead of the upcoming meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump expected to be held on April 6 and 7 at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
“We are analyzing that there is a high possibility that North Korea will conduct a nuclear test ahead of U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s summit in the United States,” another intelligence official said. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
This makes me wonder if this how the Kim regime plans to welcome whoever the next ROK President is, with a nuclear test?:
North Korea is continuing to excavate a tunnel at its nuclear test site, which may support an explosion up to 14 times more powerful than its last test, according to U.S. analysts Saturday.
Satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the northeast shows that substantial tunnel excavation is continuing at the North Portal, where the last four of the five underground nuclear tests by the North were conducted, according to the analysis posted at 38 North, a website run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.
“The continued tunneling under Mt. Mantap via the North Portal has the potential for allowing North Korea to support additional underground nuclear tests of significantly higher explosive yields, perhaps up to 282 kilotons (or just above a quarter of a megaton),” said the article written by analysts Frank Pabian, a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) fellow, and David Coblentz, an earth and environmental science expert at Los Alamos National Laboratory. [Yonhap]
Foreign Policy has a good article published that tries to give perspective to the hysteria created by Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s speech which caused so many people in the US to get in a panic about an upcoming ICBM test:
Of course, it is an obvious inference that North Korea might test an ICBM in 2017. We should probably expect an ICBM test to come sooner or later. But Kim didn’t commit to an ICBM test in 2017. He indicated that one was possible. And he also restated North Korea’s long-standing demands for reducing tensions. You don’t have to think Kim’s offer is an appealing one or that he is sincere. Frankly, I have my doubts on both accounts. But he did make an offer.
That isn’t what got reported of course. “North Korea Will Test Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Kim Says,” blared the New York Times. The headline was a heck of a lot less careful than the story, by Choe Sang-Hun. Eventually, the editors toned down the headline, but too late. By that time, the damage was done. Kim’s speech wound its way through the news and social media, cut up and condensed into 140-character snippets like a modern-day game of telephone. In the end, his bland speech had been transformed into a “grim promise” to test “a missile to reach U.S.” [Foreign Policy]
This is nothing new in regards to the media sensationalizing everything coming out of North Korea. The Foreign Policy article goes on to explain how in response to these news articles various US government officials have inflamed tensions with North Korea further. To calm things back down this is the recommendation given:
North Korea’s demand that the United States cancel all its exercises is a nonstarter, but Washington could offer further transparency and agree to some limits on their scale. There are lots of good reasons to do this, not least because the bomber appearances are losing their shock value. They have become a poor substitute for a strategy. We might as well get something for taking a break from them.
We don’t have to work out all the details in advance. But the basic framework for a potential compromise is clear: scaling back the exercises in 2017 that Kim complained about in his speech for his agreement to refrain from nuclear and missile testing during the same period. It is a timeout to reduce tensions while Trump and Kim figure each other out.
I recommend reading the whole article at the link, but I think the idea isn’t too bad depending on what scaling down of the military exercises means? The North Koreans want to take every opportunity to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK and the annual military exercises are a major component of readiness and team building between the two country’s militaries. They should not be canceled, but it may be worth determining what could be scaled back and see if there is any interest from the North Koreans in freezing their testing in return.
It looks like North Korea could be preparing for yet another nuclear test next week:
Signs of increased activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site could indicate it is preparing a sixth nuclear test, according to recent satellite imagery.
The South Korean government and military have warned that Pyongyang may conduct another nuclear test or ballistic missile launch to coincide with its ruling Workers’ Party’s founding anniversary on Oct. 10. South Korea is maintaining a state of emergency preparedness. Another possible timing for an additional provocation from Pyongyang, according to observers, could be the U.S. presidential election scheduled for Nov. 8.
Satellite images of the Punggye-ri site in North Hamgyong Province from Oct. 1 indicated continuing activity at all three tunnel complexes that could be used to conduct another nuclear test, according to 38 North, a website run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies Thursday.
Imagery showed a large vehicle, possibly a truck, near the entrance of the North Portal, where the Sept. 9 nuclear test occurred, along with boxes or other materials around the side of the main building. This could be for collecting data following the fifth test, sealing the portal or preparing for another detonation, according to the analysis. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C, front) poses for a group photo with the officials who contributed to the North’s fifth nuclear test in front of the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, in this photo released by the North’s Rodong Sinmun on Sept. 22, 2016. (For Use in S. Korea Only & No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
If anyone is wondering, there have been no sign of nuclear fallout landing in South Korea:
South Korea has yet to find any traces of radioactive materials from North Korea’s latest nuclear test, a nuclear safety commission here said Thursday, confirming the country remains safe from nuclear fallout.
“The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has not found any traces of radionuclides, such as xenon, in its tests of soil, water and air samples following North Korea’s fifth nuclear test,” the commission said in a released statement.
The commission has been testing samples every 12 hours since Monday, two days after the communist North said it successfully conducted its latest nuclear detonation test. [Yonhap]
