An official points to North Korea’s northeastern county of Kilju, where the communist country conducted a nuclear test, at the Korea Meteorological Agency in Seoul on Sept. 9, 2016. The test, the fifth of its kind following its first in 2006, second in 2009, third in 2013 and fourth in January 2016, caused a 5 magnitude tremor. North Korean news media, including the Korean Central TV Station, confirmed the latest nuclear test in their reports later in the day. (Yonhap)
The Chinese will probably talk that they will do something in response to this nuclear test, but I doubt anything of real consequence will happen to North Korea. At this point the only way I see China doing anything to stop the North Korean nuclear program is if South Korea and Japan get the green light to begin developing their own nukes:
This satellite image, dated Aug. 27, 2016, and provided by the Airbus Defense and Space and 38 North on Sept. 8, 2016, shows North Korea`s nuclear test site in the northeastern part of the country. A South Korean government source on Friday said it sees a high possibility that North Korea conducted a nuclear test on the occasion of its founding anniversary. (Yonhap)
North Korea confirmed its fifth nuclear test explosion early Friday, its largest yet. The provocation brought instant condemnation from the country’s neighbors and a call from President Obama for “serious consequences.”
Pyongyang also said it has made strides that could bring it closer to mounting a warhead on one of its ballistic missiles and launching a long-distance nuclear strike.
“We successfully conducted a nuclear explosion test to determine the power of [the] nuclear warhead,” a female anchor announced on North Korea’s state television. “We will continue to strengthen our nuclear capabilities to protect our sovereignty. We have now standardized and minimized nuclear warheads … We can now produce small nuclear warheads any time we desire.”
South Korea’s defense ministry said the yield of the blast is estimated to be 10 kilotons, the largest ever conducted by Pyongyang. Its first nuclear test in 2006 yielded less than one kiloton, and the country has been steadily increasing its atomic capacity ever since. [Good Morning America]
It would seem to me that of all the provocations that the North Koreans do, the nuclear tests are probably the ones that most concern the Chinese considering how close they are occurring to their border. It seems for now they may have been able to convince the Kim regime to delay their fifth nuclear test:
China reportedly speculates that an internal political assessment led to North Korea’s decision not to conduct a nuclear test around the time of its ruling party congress held early this month.
According to a senior South Korean government official stationed in China who spoke to reporters in Beijing on Thursday, China urged North Korea to refrain from carrying out its fifth nuclear test. The source quoted a senior Chinese official but added that it can’t be concluded that Pyongyang stopped short of a test just because of China’s request.
The official said that Beijing believes the North must have politically evaluated that a nuclear test will be a minus to the party congress. [KBS World Radio]
The North Koreans could be doing a deception operation for all we know to make it appear they are not going to do a nuclear test before actually doing one:
Recent satellite images of North Korea’s nuclear test facility raise doubts that another underground blast is looming, a Washington-based think tank says.
“Despite predictions by the South Korean government that a nuclear test appeared imminent to coincide with [North Korea’s ruling party congress], that gathering is now ended and there are no apparent signs that a detonation will occur in the near future,” said 38 North, a website run by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies that monitors North Korea activities. [Stars & Stripes]
If North Korea was to conduct an above ground nuclear test it would be interesting to see what the Chinese reaction to it would be since they would be affected by the fallout:
A Japanese daily says North Korea could go ahead with a nuclear test in the atmosphere as its final means of a threat to hold direct talks with the United States.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun said in a Thursday column that there are skeptical views of North Korea conducting an anachronistic atmospheric nuclear test. However, it noted the North’s past behavior such as the shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, torpedoing of the South’s Cheonan vessel and infiltration of special forces into the South using a submarine.
The paper argued the North will find it necessary to bring forth something even more shocking to draw U.S. attention, and quoted expert opinions that the possibility of an atmospheric nuke test can no longer be excluded.
At atmospheric nuclear explosion causes radioactive fallout in all directions and poses a devastating impact on the environment.
No country in the world has conducted such a test since China in 1980. [KBS World Radio]
Here is the latest intelligence assessment provided by 38 North using commercial satellite data on when they think North Korea will conduct another nuclear test:
Activities detected at North Korea’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon are increasing speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to conduct a fifth nuclear test.
Citing satellite images showing exhaust plumes that were uploaded Monday by 38 North ― a U.S. website on North Korea issues ― analysts here said Tuesday that Pyongyang may be taking preparatory steps for another nuclear test.
The analysts predict that the fifth test could be conducted on the occasion of the seventh Workers’ Party Congress, a rare congressional meeting scheduled to take place in May for the first time since 1980.
“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un apparently wants to run a big event to publicize his leadership at the Workers’ Party Congress,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. “And it’s possible North Korea could test a nuclear bomb using one of the three materials ― plutonium, uranium or hydrogen.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link or over at 38 North.
According to civilian satellite imagery it appears that the Kim regime is preparing the Pungye Nuclear Test Site for future nuclear tests:
North Korea’s Punggye-ri site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, is active and could be ready for new nuclear tests, according to 38 North, as Pyongyang continues to ignore United Nations resolutions and threaten further nuclear and ballistic missile tests.
The website 38 North, which specializes in North Korean affairs and is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), said Friday that satellite imagery from March 6 and March 14 show active maintenance at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
The activity “does not appear directed at further tunnel excavation,” it said, but rather to maintain existing tunnels as well as to clean up after the nuclear test in January.
“It is highly likely that site is capable of supporting additional tests at any time,” the website continued. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read the rest at the link, but just because they are cleaning up the test site I would think does not necessarily mean there will be a test in the near term. However, I do have to wonder who in North Korea cleans up these test sites? Do they send some of their political prisoners into the tunnels to do the work?
It looks like the Chinese are attempting to stop the expected North Korean rocket launch by sending an envoy to North Korea which was likely prompted by reports that the ROK was considering deploying the THAAD missile defense system to Korea:
China’s top nuclear envoy made a surprise visit to North Korea on Tuesday, a news report said, amid rising tensions over the North’s fourth nuclear test last month.
Wu Dawei, China’s top delegate to the long-stalled six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, flew into Pyongyang in the afternoon, Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported.
China is currently under international pressure to exert its leverage on North Korea to make sure Pyongyang ends its nuclear program.
Wu is expected to meet with North Korean officials over the Jan. 6 nuclear test, which Pyongyang claims was a successful detonation of a hydrogen bomb.
The test has raised security tensions in the region to a new high, with the U.N. Security Council pushing to adopt another sanctions resolution against Pyongyang.
South Korea appears to be inching closer to introducing an advanced U.S. missile defense system to counter the threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. [Yonhap]
