It looks like since the rocket test got squashed for whatever reason the North Koreans are going back to their other popular provocation in their playbook which is a nuclear test:
South Korea’s spy service believes North Korea is preparing for a fourth nuclear test but not in the immediate future, according to South Korean lawmakers who attended a closed-door meeting with agency officials Tuesday.
The office of lawmaker Lee Cheol Woo said the National Intelligence Service made the assessment after monitoring activities at North Korea’s main Nyongbyon nuclear complex.
Lee and another lawmaker, Shin Kyung-min, said the spy agency didn’t say how it obtained the information. Shin said it also didn’t elaborate on what test preparations meant. The spy agency’s public affairs office said it could not confirm the reported assessment. [Associated Press]
You can read more at the link.
If the North Koreans are planning to conduct a nuclear test it looks like it will be at least until the fall before it happens:
North Korea is unlikely to conduct another nuclear test at least until this fall, a U.S. think tank said Friday, citing satellite imagery showing no signs of preparations at the country’s underground test site.
“Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is conducting regular spring construction and maintenance activities at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site,” the website 38 North said in a report by analyst Jack Liu.
“There are no indications of nuclear test preparations at this time. Given the time and effort such preparations require, North Korea is unlikely to conduct another nuclear test until at least fall 2015 at the earliest,” the report said.
The North has conducted its three nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013, all at the Punggye-ri site in the country’s northeast. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link.
First the news agencies were reporting from anonymous souces that the initial intelligence results from the North Korean nuclear test indicated it was not a nuclear test:
U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast’s readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
“We’re still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture,” said one official familiar with intelligence reports.
Now the news agencies are reporting once again through unnamed sources that it was a successful nuclear test:
A preliminary analysis of air samples from North Korea shows “radioactive debris consistent with a North Korea nuclear test,” according to a statement from the office of the top U.S. intelligence official.
The statement, from the office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, was sent to Capitol Hill but not released publicly. CNN obtained it from a congressional source.
I have a word of advice for the news agencies, how about they wait for official word from the US government agencies involved with the data analysis instead of publishing incomplete analysis based on unnamed souces as fact. My second concern is all these leaks from sensitive government agencies. If a journalist can get sensitive information from government agencies why couldn’t foreign intelligence agencies just as easily do so as well. Why aren’t these leakers found and prosecuted?
In the US military we constantly receive briefings on the importance of OPSEC and milbloggers even have to register their blogs with their chain of command when deployed because of this. Yet the most damaging OPSEC violations I continue to see are from the same people who started the crack down on milblogs, the Pentagon and other government agencies. This is a classic do as I say, don’t do as I do.
