Tag: nuclear weapons

The Blue House is now letting it be known that North Korea is not serious about denuclearization:

Libya’s process of denuclearization, in which rewards were provided after the regime made an instantaneous decision and completely dismantled its nuclear program, cannot be applied to resolving the North Korea nuclear issue, a Cheong Wa Dae official said Friday.

He hinted at solutions through phrased disarmament and verification, which is somewhat different from hard-line U.S. officials’ preference for a package settlement similar to the Libya disarmament process

Libya gave up its nuclear and other destructive weapons in 2003, in return for normalization of relations with the U.S. and easing of economic sanctions. Attention has grown over the Libyan case as the White House’s newly appointed national security adviser, John Bolton, has backed this model as a means to address North Korea.

“I believe it is impossible to apply the Libyan process to North Korea,” the senior official told reporters on condition of anonymity.  [Korea Times]

This based off of Kim Jong-un’s comments during his trip to China that North Korea would only denuclearize on a step-by-step basis.  In other words nothing has changed from past nuclear negotiations where the Kim regime seeks major concessions for little to nothing in return and then tear up the agreement at a time of their choosing.  Some how I do not see the Trump administration signing up for any deal like that.

Here is what Chinese expert on North Korea, Yang Xiyu thinks about the possibility of Kim Jong-un denuclearizing:

Yang Xiyu, one of China’s leading experts on North Korea, said that Mr. Kim was clearly trying to repair the North’s deeply strained relations with Beijing, its traditional ally and benefactor, while opening new ties with its enemy South Korea.

Even so, Mr. Yang said, that did not signal that Mr. Kim was willing to give up his nuclear arsenal, though he has told South Korean envoys that he was prepared to discuss the possibility.

“He is starting a new game where he could make concessions on denuclearization,” Mr. Yang said. “At most, he will cut the grass, but he will not pull out the roots.”  [New York Times]

If Kim Jong-un meets with President Trump and does not make any serious offer to denuclearize than Kim better be ready for if the Trump administration decides to come back with a bottle of Roundup to kill the roots.

Here is what a Professor John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago has to say about the possibility of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons:

There’s no way North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons because they have no reason to believe the United States will implement any denuclearization deal between them, John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago well known for his realist views on international politics, said Tuesday.

“North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons and China will not push North Koreans to do so. The reason is that in international politics, you could never trust anybody because you cannot be certain of what their intentions are,” the professor said in a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in Seoul.

“There’s no way North Koreans can trust the U.S. — they give up their nuclear weapons because the U.S. might welsh on the deal,” the professor said, referring to the U.S.’ unsuccessful denuclearization deals with former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and Iran. “If you were North Koreans, would you trust Donald Trump? Would you trust any American presidents?

“I can’t think of a country that needs nuclear weapons more than North Koreans because you all know that the U.S. is into a regime change. Donald Trump has been talking about a regime change in North Korea,” Mearsheimer said.

“Give up their nuclear weapons? I don’t think so, especially as security competition heats up in East Asia. You wanna hang on to those weapons.”  [Yonhap]

I think an important distinction to draw here is that the nuclear weapons were likely not developed to protect the North Korean government from an American regime change attempt.  North Korea’s conventional weapons have been able to prevent any regime change on the peninsula despite assassination attempts on ROK presidents, shooting down of a US aircraft, kidnappings, terrorist bombings, artillery shellings, etc.  These past incidents would have led to a regime change war in most other areas in the world, but not with North Korea because of the cost of civilian casualties on Seoul.

If Muammar Gaddafi had the ability to kill millions of people in Rome for example with conventional weapons, his overthrow by international forces would have never happened.  Unlike Gaddafi and other dictators that have been overthrown, geography has aided the North Koreans by having a huge metropolitan area within striking distance of their conventional artillery, they don’t need nukes to threaten Seoul, they do need them to threaten the United States.

The Kim regime’s nuclear weapons were likely developed to threaten US cities which then increases their bargaining position during negotiations.  This is what appears to be happening now.   I would say that at best North Korea may sign an agreement that stops development of new nuclear weapons, but lets them keep a few on hand.  What I think the US would have more success on is having them scrap their ICBM program.  Without an ICBM North Korea cannot threaten US cities.

Such an agreement would still leave the Kim regime a few nuclear weapons to protect them not from the US, but from any Chinese regime change attempts.  There has long been a distrust of the Chinese by the Kim regime that stretches back to the Korean War.  Nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance policy against any Chinese adventurism against North Korea.  The nuclear weapons also gives them an advantage over their South Korean rivals that they can continue to use as leverage during future provocation cycles and negotiations.  So ultimately I agree with Professor Mearsheimer that North Korea is not going to give up their nuclear weapons, just for different reasons.

I will believe it when I see it in regards to the Kim regime’s willingness to dismantle their nuclear program:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised dismantlement of his country’s nuclear weapons program – not merely a freeze – when he met with South Korean envoys last week in Pyongyang, multiple government sources told the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday.

“Kim expressed willingness for denuclearization, which includes not only a nuclear freeze but also dismantlement,” said one source familiar with the talks. “Now is the moment where we have to wait and see if the North will actually start the process of dismantling its nuclear program.”  (……)

“The briefing to the White House included Kim’s promise that he was willing to commit to the denuclearization that the United States wants,” the source said.

The official recounted that Trump initially called for a meeting with Kim right away. But after prodding from the South Korean delegation, he was persuaded to meet with Kim in May after the South could confirm the North’s commitment to denuclearization during the inter-Korean summit in April.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

While North Korea is claiming they are willing to denuclearize they are on the other hand busy making more enriched plutonium for nuclear weapons:

38 North said the 5-megawatt reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex shows signs of operation, including steam vapor plumes from the generator hall and nearby river ice melt.

The monitoring website also spotted a new military tent camp established last month on the complex, more personnel and two large open-bed trucks.

The website, which is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, examined commercial satellite images from Feb. 17 and Feb. 25.

38 North’s analysts noted that no cooling water discharges have been observed as would be expected under normal operations but said that was likely because the North Koreans had hidden them by extending a discharge pipe into the river.

“If the reactor is operating again, as the evidence suggests, it means North Korea has resumed production of plutonium presumably for its nuclear weapons program,” said the analysis by experts Frank Pabian, Joseph Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but I believe this news is all part of North Korea’s pressure campaign against the United States to get the Trump administration to agree to a “freeze deal”.  As part of the deal the Kim regime can agree to suspend plutonium production in return for sanctions busting concessions.

The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal.  However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:

South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.

Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.

President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.

“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.

“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.”  [Korea Times]

It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year.  They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:

North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.

“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.

The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.

“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.

Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics.  [Korea Times]

We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons.  Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility.  What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it.  Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects.  As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.

To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:

“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional.  I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure.  This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea.   This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.

With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea.  Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US.  Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.

This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return.  All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have.  If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.

Talks with NK will achieve nothing. They even made advances whilst they attending the stupid term 'Peace Olympics'. NK will never give up nukes without a war. https://t.co/7zVempdnSC

— Asia-Pacific News (@AsiaPacificN3ws) March 3, 2018

Former Financial Times journalist John Burton thinks the Trump administration is to paternalistic with South Korea and should let them settle their own differences with North Korea:

The U.S. has been doing itself no favors in its rather paternalistic response to the thawing relations between the two Koreas at the Winter Olympics.

The bottom line message emerging from Washington is that South Koreans cannot be trusted in handling Pyongyang. The U.S. is worried that North Korea is trying to drive a wedge in relations between Seoul and Washington. But the Trump administration’s own behavior is contributing to the possibility of any split.

And if the South Koreans can’t be trusted with their own security, then why should the U.S. be so concerned about defending them unless it is for some ulterior motive such as maintaining a military presence on the Asian mainland to counter China?

The fact is that the Koreans have reached out to each other because of fears that Trump might launch a “bloody nose” preventive attack that could result in appalling destruction across the Korean Peninsula. No wonder why Koreans want to give peace a chance.

But the U.S. has not reacted well to what is happening in PyeongChang. The American media has reported about South Koreans having been seduced by the wily charms of Kim Yo-jong, described as North Korea’s Ivanka Trump, and her accompanying “army of beauties.”

Many predict that her siren song is likely to result in President Moon Jae-in accepting her invitation to travel to Pyongyang and meet her brother, Kim Jong-un, who will trick the South Koreans into undermining the international sanctions regime against North Korea over its nuclear program.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but Mr. Burton is also upset with Vice President Pence not standing and showing respect to the North Korean delegation at the Winter Olympics.  I have to wonder if Mr. Burton thinks the then Apartheid South Africa should have been allowed in the Olympics and shown proper respect as well?

Mr. Burton then goes on to say the South and North should be allowed to resolve their issues themselves without US interference.  That boat has long ago sailed when North Korea decided to begin launching ICBMs and testing nuclear weapons capable of mass destruction in the United States.  If North Korea was not conducting such activities threats of “bloody nose” strikes and “maximum pressure” campaigns by the Trump administration would not be happening.

Until North Korea gives up on these programs the United States will continue to have a vested interest in any negotiations between North and South Korea.  Especially after the original Sunshine Policy that sent billions of dollars to North Korea is arguably the reason why the Kim regime now has nuclear and ICBM weapons to threaten the US with.  Because of this the Trump administration rightfully should be advocating against any give aways by the Moon administration to the Kim regime for little or nothing in return.

Admiral Harris seems to understand what the Kim regime’s ultimate goal of their nuclear weapon’s program is:

A top U.S. military commander said Wednesday he believes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is intent on reunifying the Korean Peninsula under a single, communist system.

Adm. Harry Harris, chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, told a congressional hearing he does not agree with the predominant view that Kim is pursuing nuclear-tipped missiles to safeguard his regime only.

Kim is “after reunification under a single, communist system,” Harris told the House Armed Services Committee, adding that is the “long view.”

The North Korean leader’s nuclear ambitions contribute to that view and help him blackmail countries such as South Korea and the U.S., the commander said. And Washington should continue to increase economic and diplomatic sanctions on Pyongyang under its “maximum pressure” campaign to persuade Kim to abandon his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.  [Yonhap]

As I and others have said repeatedly the development of nuclear weapons solely to deter US led regime change does not make sense.  North Korea’s conventional capabilities have proven to be an effective deterrent for decades.  Look at what they have done over the years with killing US soldiers, taking US naval personnel hostage, shooting down a US plane, attacking the Blue House to kill the ROK president, bombing an airliner out of the sky, hijacking an airplane, shelling a ROK island, sinking a ROK ship, etc.

None of these attacks led to a retaliatory strike because of their conventional capabilities were an effective deterrent.  So clearly there is more to why they want to develop nuclear weapons so aggressively.  The theory that makes the most sense is that the true intention of their nuclear program is to separate the US from South Korea and then seek a confederation on North Korean terms.

A ROK Drop favorite Tom Coyner explains the “wedge theory” in a recent article in the Joong Ang Ilbo:

If Washington affairs are unpredictable, the same can be said about the entirety of the Korean Peninsula. As such, there are various ideas and theories of what is the fundamental thinking and strategy of North Korea. The most likely scenario being played out is the so-called wedge theory. Many scholars disagree, but I subscribe to it as the most likely explanation for both obvious and insidious reasons.

North Korea is unintentionally serving China’s geopolitical interests. First and most obviously, it serves as a physical barrier between China’s capital and U.S. forces based in South Korea. More controversially, North Korea’s nuclear program is not being designed to start a nuclear exchange unless absolutely necessary. Rather, its weapons are like other nations’ nukes. The weapons are meant as deterrents. But unlike other nations’ arsenals, the DPRK’s nukes are serving the hegemonic interests of its neighbor, China.  (…..)

Many North Korea watchers believe the real aim of the DPRK nukes is to threaten the U.S. and intimidate Washington out of its ironclad guarantee to come to the aid of Seoul under all circumstances. Which is to say, be able to challenge the current or future American president into deciding whether to stand by Seoul or risk having one of America’s cities be nuked. Of course, such a scenario would lead to the total destruction of North Korea by a vengeful America. But beyond simply living with a nuclear DPRK, all military scenarios are high risk, including ending with the ultimate destruction of North Korea. (……..)

Consequently, the wedge theory is the most plausible. If the U.S. backs away from its 100 percent support of South Korea, North Korea can further its political agenda to ultimately achieve a peace treaty leading to confederation without need for U.S. forces.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but I have long believed that the Kim regime and the Chinese government have a long term goal of driving a wedge between the US and the ROK.  That is what is behind the THAAD retaliation against South Korea by the Chinese government.  They know THAAD is not a threat to them, but it is an issue they can use to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK.  Likewise that is what North Korea is to the Chinese, yet another issue to drive a wedge between the US and the ROK.