Tag: nuclear weapons

Guessing they don't have an office in Pyongyang https://t.co/zCfwrjbDki

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) October 6, 2017

Here is yet another example of a freeze deal being circulated around Washington, D.C.

My first question is what would the US give up to get North Korea to freeze their nuclear weapons for 26 months?  They are not going to freeze their nuclear weapons program out of the goodness of their hearts.  Additionally this does nothing to solve the ICBM issue which is actually more concerning than the nuclear program right now.  Their nuclear weapons cannot be used against the US homeland if they don’t have a reliable delivery system.

It is statements like this that continue to build the case to justify military action against North Korea.  For once it would make strategic sense for them to come off as rational actors to make the world think the Kim regime will responsibly manage their nuclear weapons, but old habits die hard:

North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho threatened to take “merciless pre-emptive action” against the United States in case it shows any sign of military attack, calling U.S. President Donald Trump the “gravest threat” to international peace and security during an address to the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday in New York.

Speaking two days after raising the possibility of a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean, Ri showered derogatory language on Trump while addressing world leaders, suggesting it was “fair enough” for him to use a tone that corresponded to Trump’s earlier speech to the same global body.

“The absurd reality that someone like Trump, a mentally deranged person full of megalomania and complacency, who is chastised even by Americans as ‘Commander in Grief,’ ‘Lying King’ and ‘President Evil’ is holding the seat of the U.S. president, and the dangerous reality that the gambler who grew old using threats, fraud and all other schemes to acquire a patch of land holds the nuclear button – these constitute the gravest threat to the international peace and security today,” said Ri, according to English transcripts provided by the United Nations.

In his 22-minute speech, given in Korean, Ri mentioned “U.S.” 28 times and “Trump” five times, mostly to chastise Trump’s earlier threat to “totally destroy” North Korea and to rally support from other countries in contending that Pyongyang’s nuclear drive is a “righteous self-defensive measure” against Washington.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read the rest at the link.

Would such a test be pretext to launch a bombing strike, especially since they would have to fire over Japan to do this nuclear test?:

Hours later, Kim’s foreign minister told reporters in New York that Pyongyang could launch a nuclear missile test in response. “This could probably mean the strongest hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific Ocean. Regarding which measures to take, I don’t really know since it is what Kim Jong Un does,” said Ri.  [CNN]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the North Koreans have no plans of freezing their nuclear program:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has pledged to complete the country’s nuclear program, saying that its final goal is to establish an “equilibrium” of military force with the U.S., its state media said Saturday.

Kim made the remark during his inspection of the launch of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan a day earlier, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

North Korea on Friday fired a ballistic missile from Pyongyang that crossed over Japan. It flew around 3,700 kilometers while reaching a maximum altitude of some 770 km.

“We should clearly show the big power chauvinists how our state attain the goal of completing its nuclear force despite their limitless sanctions and blockade,” Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA.

He underlined “the need to put an end to them with the all-state efforts as it has nearly reached the terminal,” he added.

It marked the second missile launch over Japan in less than a month. It also followed the wayward regime’s sixth and most powerful nuclear test on Sept. 3.

“Our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military option” for North Korea, Kim said.

Kim, in addition, called on the North’s scientists and technicians to “put rockets on a modern and ultra modern basis and develop the operation level onto a higher stage with their close combination” — remarks that some observers say hinted at the possibility of additional provocations from Pyongyang.

The photo of the launch, released by the North’s daily Rodong Sinmun, showed that the Hwasong-12 missile was fired from a road-mobile launcher — an indication of enhanced mobility. The North was seen using a fixed launchpad to fire the same missile in May and last month.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Here is President Moon’s response to those calling for either the deployment or development of tactical nukes in South Korea:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in ruled out the possibility of redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons in the country Thursday, CNN reported.

In an interview with the U.S. cable news channel, he warned it could lead to a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia.

“I do not agree that South Korea needs to develop our own nuclear weapons or relocate tactical nuclear weapons in the face of North Korea’s nuclear threat,” he was quoted by CNN as saying.

The interview was made ahead of his visit to New York next week to attend the U.N. General Assembly.

Moon said South Korea needs to develop military capabilities in the face of the North’s growing nuclear threat, while expressing objection to some conservatives’ call for Seoul’s own nuclear armament.

“To respond to North Korea by having our own nuclear weapons will not maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and could lead to a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia,” Moon said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but this is what the academic circles are saying about introducing nuclear weapons to South Korea:

South Korea obtaining nuclear armament will not stop North Korea’s military provocations or deter its nuclear threats, experts on the North said Thursday.

They expect deploying tactical nuclear weapons will only give Pyongyang more reason to speed up its nuclear development.

“The call to reintroduce nuclear weapons reflects an understandable frustration,” Stephan Haggard, director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, told The Korea Times.

“But it does very little to strengthen the deterrent. Moreover, reintroducing nuclear weapons would only provide further justification for North Korea to continue with its own nuclear program. This is simply a bad idea.”

Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, also said he is not in favor of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, citing the U.S.’s extended nuclear deterrence commitment to the South.

“The U.S. is committed to the defense of South Korea, and our nuclear umbrella for South Korea and Japan is a very important and credible element of our deterrence strategy,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Here's what's driving North Korea's nuclear program — and it might be more than self-defense https://t.co/Ibbn5sHda2

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 4, 2017

Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons?  However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:

The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.

“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

South Korean civil defense: in nuclear attack, get down but keep your tummy off the ground (because the shaking will hurt your organs) pic.twitter.com/Ibv938ij1m

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) August 23, 2017

Probably the most interesting thing to see if South Korea develops nuclear weapons is not North Korea’s reaction, but China’s:

No longer sure they can rely on the United States, an increasing number of South Korean lawmakers say their country should develop its own nuclear arsenal to deter an attack by Kim Jong Un, their belligerent neighbor to the north.

North Korea’s rapid missile advances, including successful tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in July and again on Friday, are reviving calls for South Korea to assert its “nuclear sovereignty.” South Koreans are wary of President Donald Trump’s isolationist rhetoric and his calls for Asian allies to shoulder more of the defense burdens borne by the U.S. military.

“Trump’s ‘America-first’ policy has triggered this kind of public sentiment,” said Moon Chung In, a top national security adviser to South Korean President Moon Jae In. Trump also has wavered on his commitment to defending South Korea, he said, including suggesting during the campaign that South Korea and Japan should develop their own nuclear arsenals.

While President Moon, a liberal who took office in May, does not support calls for South Korea to join the nuclear club, polls show that a majority of South Koreans surveyed favor the idea. Support bumps higher whenever North Korea conducts a nuclear or missile test and members of South Korea’s two major conservative parties are pressing Moon to at least explore the nuclear option of developing nuclear weapons.  [Kansas City Star]

You can read more at the link, but members of the ROK parliament has long discussed developing nuclear weapons and it has been a popular idea with the ROK public.  However, until the ROK President decides to pursue them this is just all noise for now.