Tag: nuclear weapons

Here is the latest intelligence assessment provided by 38 North using commercial satellite data on when they think North Korea will conduct another nuclear test:

Activities detected at North Korea’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon are increasing speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to conduct a fifth nuclear test.

Citing satellite images showing exhaust plumes that were uploaded Monday by 38 North ― a U.S. website on North Korea issues ― analysts here said Tuesday that Pyongyang may be taking preparatory steps for another nuclear test.

The analysts predict that the fifth test could be conducted on the occasion of the seventh Workers’ Party Congress, a rare congressional meeting scheduled to take place in May for the first time since 1980.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un apparently wants to run a big event to publicize his leadership at the Workers’ Party Congress,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. “And it’s possible North Korea could test a nuclear bomb using one of the three materials ― plutonium, uranium or hydrogen.” [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link or over at 38 North.

With the nuclear threat North Korea is building and the continued territorial aggressiveness of the Chinese developing nuclear weapons in both South Korea and Japan may happen eventually anyway:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has reiterated that he is open to allowing South Korea and Japan to have nuclear weapons so as to defend themselves against threats from North Korea.

Trump made the remark during a town hall meeting televised on CNN Tuesday night, stressing that the North has nuclear weapons and the U.S. is no longer rich enough to defend other wealthy nations, like Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

“Can I be honest are you? Maybe it’s going to have to be time to change, because so many people, you have Pakistan has it, you have China has it. You have so many other countries are now having it,” Trump said, referring to nuclear weapons.

“At some point we have to say, you know what, we’re better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea. We’re better off, frankly, if South Korea is going to start to protect itself,” Trump said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Asked again if he means it’s OK for Japan, South Korea and even Saudi Arabia to have nuclear weapons, Trump said, “It’s going to happen anyway. It’s going to happen anyway. It’s only a question of time. They’re going to start having them or we have to get rid of them entirely.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

North Korea cites @reddit comments for the prowess of its nuclear weapons. pic.twitter.com/j5yqqCOqJT

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) March 22, 2016

According to civilian satellite imagery it appears that the Kim regime is preparing the Pungye Nuclear Test Site for future nuclear tests:

North Korea’s Punggye-ri site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, is active and could be ready for new nuclear tests, according to 38 North, as Pyongyang continues to ignore United Nations resolutions and threaten further nuclear and ballistic missile tests.

The website 38 North, which specializes in North Korean affairs and is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), said Friday that satellite imagery from March 6 and March 14 show active maintenance at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

The activity “does not appear directed at further tunnel excavation,” it said, but rather to maintain existing tunnels as well as to clean up after the nuclear test in January.

“It is highly likely that site is capable of supporting additional tests at any time,” the website continued.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read the rest at the link, but just because they are cleaning up the test site I would think does not necessarily mean there will be a test in the near term.  However, I do have to wonder who in North Korea cleans up these test sites?  Do they send some of their political prisoners into the tunnels to do the work?

Not that I endorse this, but if there ever was a case for regime change North Korea is making the strongest case for such to happen.  How would China for instance react if a country was threatening to nuke Beijing and other cities in China?  Probably not with the restraint the US is constantly told to keep:

North Korea claimed Sunday that it could wipe out Manhattan by sending a hydrogen bomb on a ballistic missile to the heart of New York City, the latest in a string of brazen threats.

Although there are many reasons to believe that Kim Jong Un’s regime is exaggerating its technical capabilities, the near-daily drumbeat of boasts and warnings from North Korea underlines its anger at efforts to thwart its ambitions.

“Our hydrogen bomb is much bigger than the one developed by the Soviet Union,” DPRK Today, a state-run outlet, reported Sunday. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.

“If this H-bomb were to be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile and fall on Manhattan in New York City, all the people there would be killed immediately and the city would burn down to ashes,” the report said, citing a nuclear scientist named Cho Hyong Il.  [Washington Post]

You can read more at the link.

I would not be surprised if this is a mock up intentionally published to get the international reaction it is getting:

North Korea on Wednesday caused a new stir by publicizing a purported mock-up of a nuclear warhead for the first time, with leader Kim Jong Un saying his country has developed miniaturized atomic bombs to be placed on missiles.

The North’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper carried photos on its front page that showed Kim and nuclear scientists standing beside what outside analysts say appears to be the model warhead — a small, silverish globe presented on a low table in a hangar with a ballistic missile or a model ballistic missile in the background.

The newspaper said Kim met his nuclear scientists for a briefing on the status of their work and declared he was greatly pleased that warheads had been standardized and miniaturized for use on ballistic missiles.  [US News & World Report]

You can read more at the link.

I wonder what China would be saying if another country threatened to nuke Beijing?

BEIJING, March 4 (Yonhap) — China called for calm and restraint on Friday after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered his military to be ready to use its atomic weapons at any time.
The order by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un marked a further escalation of tensions, a day after the North fired short-range projectiles into the East Sea in an apparent show of defiance following the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of new sanctions against Pyongyang over its fourth nuclear test and rocket launch.

“We hope that relevant countries can exercise restraint, speak and act prudently,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said. [Yonhap]

How Kim Jong Un bankrolls his nuclear ambitions https://t.co/v8nQUhYe9I

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) February 26, 2016

I guess all the Kim regime’s threats of turning South Korea into a “Sea of Fire” does not count:

North Korea said Friday it has never threatened to attack South Korea with its nuclear weapons, claiming that its possession of nuclear bombs is for self-defense against the United States.

The North has called on the U.S. to abandon its hostile policy toward North Korea, saying that its four nuclear tests were an act of deterrence against what it calls Washington’s attempt at nuclear attacks.

“The reason why we’ve had the nuclear deterrence is not for dropping nuclear bombs on people in the South,” the Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s main newspaper, said in a commentary. “Our nuclear weapons program is aimed at crushing Washington’s bid to stage a nuclear war and securing peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It would not be surprising if this facility is in fact being built to manufacture hydrogen bomb ingredients considering the Kim regime’s state goal of building a hydrogen bomb.  With that said I think the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) may want to get a different acronym to describe themselves with:

North Korea is forging ahead with construction of a new nuclear facility believed to be designed to separate isotopes from spent fuel, such as tritium, a key ingredient for hydrogen bombs, a U.S. research institute said.

The Institute for Science and International Security said in a report released Monday that satellite imagery taken on Jan. 25 of the North’s Yongbyon nuclear complex shows “external construction signatures” at the new facility site, such as vehicles, construction material, and earth displacement activities.

“The precise purpose of this site remains unknown. However, it is of interest because the signatures visible through a historical analysis of satellite imagery are consistent with an isotope separation facility, including tritium separation,” ISIS said.

“This assessment is shared not only by an expert ISIS consulted but also by a government expert we consulted who has long experience in assessing activities at the Yongbyon site,” it said.

In September, ISIS first raised the possibility that the new facility could be an isotope separation plant.

If confirmed as such, the facility would separate isotopes from spent nuclear fuel rods from the 5-megawatt reactor, the North’s main plutonium-producing reactor, the institute said at the time. Though the reactor is not an ideal producer of isotopes, it can be used in that way, it added.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.