Tag: nuclear weapons

That is what some in the U.S. government and think tanks believe:

The idea of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons is resurfacing among some U.S. pundits in light of the strengthened military partnership between North Korea and Russia.

However, while local analysts describe this as highly unlikely, they are skeptical about whether the growing camaraderie between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin is significant enough to push South Korea to withdraw from its decades-long commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), a move that would likely draw major international sanctions.

Allison Hooker, former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council under former U.S. President Donald Trump, suggested, Friday, that the deepening military relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang might prompt Seoul to consider pursuing its own nuclear weapons.

“I think we cannot rule out the possibility that South Korea might move more rapidly toward its own nuclear program. We need to determine how we feel about that within the U.S. and the alliance context as well,” Hooker said during a webinar hosted by the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Her remarks came a day after Republican Senator Roger Wicker called for redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, reiterating a proposal he floated in late May.

“With our allies South Korea, Japan and Australia, we should discuss nuclear burden-sharing agreements. It’s time for them to step forward and join us in nuclear burden-sharing,” Wicker said Thursday on the Senate floor, as he spoke about the latest Kim-Putin summit.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the ROK officials the Korea Times interviewed believe this talk is all a bluff by the U.S. side. This is because the ROK developing its own nuclear deterrent would decrase U.S. influence in South Korea. It is also believed it would cause a nuclear domino effect with Taiwan and Japan wanting their own nuclear deterrents as well.

I think the situation on the peninsula would have to get very unstable before the U.S. military would consider redeploying tactical nuclear weapons on to the peninsula:

 A ranking member of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday proposed the idea of redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear arms to South Korea to beef up deterrence, noting the absence of any immediate diplomatic solution to North Korea’s nuclear quandary.

Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) made the proposal in a report, titled “21st Century Peace Through Strength: A Generational Investment in the U.S. Military,” in which he stressed Pyongyang continues to “outpace expectations” about its nuclear and missile programs with capabilities to target the continental United States.

“Because there is no immediate diplomatic solution in sight, the United States must ensure that deterrence does not erode on the Korean Peninsula,” the senator said in the report.

“That means maintaining readiness with regular U.S.-Republic of Korea military exercises, keeping a persistent U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula and exploring new options — such as nuclear-sharing agreements in the Indo-Pacific and redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula — to bolster deterrence on the Korean Peninsula,” he added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The South Korean public understands what I have been saying for years, U.S. North Korea policy is at odds with reality because North Korea is never going to give up their nuclear weapons. The best that can be done is probably a deal that limits the amount of nuclear weapons they have and possibly eliminated their ICBM program:

Nine out of ten South Koreans are skeptical about the possibility of North Korea abandoning its nuclear program, a survey showed Monday, as the reclusive country continues to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programs.

According to the Gallup Korea poll of 1,043 adults, commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies, 91 percent replied that the North’s denuclearization was “impossible.”

Of them, 41.4 percent considered denuclearization to be “not possible at all,” while 49.7 percent said it was not possible.

In last year’s poll, 77.6 percent of the respondents said they believed North’s denuclearization was impossible.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

The Kim regime has found a new and inventive way to raise tensions on the peninsula. They know that anything they claim that has the word “nuclear” in it the media widely publish even without any evidence to support it:

A set of file photos, carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on April 8, 2023, show the North testing an underwater nuclear-capable attack drone named the Haeil from April 4-7. (Yonhap)

The United States on Friday called on North Korea to refrain from further “provocative” and “destabilizing” actions, and to return to dialogue, after Pyongyang claimed to have tested an underwater nuclear weapons system under development.

The North’s defense ministry said the country conducted an “important” test of the Haeil-5-23 system, denouncing this week’s naval drills between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan as “reckless confrontation hysteria,” according to the Korean Central News Agency.

“We call on the DPRK to refrain from further provocative, destabilizing actions and return to diplomacy,” a State Department spokesperson said in response to a question from Yonhap News Agency. DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

Considering the war on fish the North Koreans have waged in the East Sea with all their missile launches, they could really win the war on the fish if they start detonating underwater nuclear devices.

It looks like Kim Jong-un is increasing his threatening rhetoric likely in an effort to improve negotating position if talks of dropping sanctions ever starts again:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects the launch of a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Dec. 18, 2023, in this photo released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency the following day. (Yonhap)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said his country will launch a nuclear attack without hesitation in event of nuclear provocations from the enemy, state media said Thursday.

Kim made the remarks in an event held Wednesday to praise a missile unit for the successful launch of a solid-fuel Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) earlier this week.

Kim said the launch “clearly” showed enemies the North’s “offensive countermeasure” to “launch a nuclear attack without hesitation” in the event of any enemy’s nuclear provocations, according to the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Kim stressed that a country’s sovereign rights can only be guaranteed through powerful strength, saying true defensive capabilities come from the actual capacity to strike any enemy in a pre-emptive manner, KCNA said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This think tank is calling for 100 modernized tactical nuclear weapons to defend South Korea, but believes they should be stored in the U.S.:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) talks with officials during a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute in Pyongyang on March 27, 2023, in this file photo released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim guided the work to mount nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles, and the institute reported the recent years’ work and production for bolstering the North’s nuclear forces, both in quality and quantity, according to the KCNA. (Yonhap)

South Korea and the United States should modernize around 100 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to support the security of the South against North Korea’s growing threats, a research report said Monday.

The Asan Institute for Policy Studies and the Rand Corp. made the suggestion in a joint report, stressing the North has “already established a nuclear weapon force that could pose an existential threat” to South Korea and is “on the verge” of posing a serious threat to the U.S. 

“Kim Jong-un appears to be planning a force of at least 300 to 500 nuclear weapons… the 300-weapon threshold could almost be reached in 2030,” the report, titled “Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance,” said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It seems like we have been talking about North Korea conducting a possible nuclear test for the past two years and for whatever reason they haven’t done one yet. I am not convinced that a food crisis is what is going to cause them to conduct a new nuclear test:

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a visit to the command center of the Army’s 1st Infantry Division in Paju, 37 kilometers north of Seoul, on Oct. 9, 2023, in this photo provided by his office. (Yonhap)

 North Korea may stage various provocations, including a nuclear test, to divert its public’s attention from the country’s ongoing food crisis, South Korea’s defense ministry said Tuesday.

The ministry made the assessment in a policy report for a parliamentary audit amid growing tensions after North Korea revised its constitution late last month to stipulate the policy of strengthening its nuclear force.

“In order to pass on internal complaints of food woes and failures in economic policy to the outside world, there is a possibility of (the North) conducting various strategic and tactical provocations, including a seventh nuclear test,” the ministry said in the report.

The isolated regime, which has faced chronic food shortages, last conducted a nuclear test in September 2017.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Nuclear weapons will be returning to South Korea for the first time in decades:

Lt. Gen. Scott L. Pleus, deputy commander of the U.S. Forces Korea, speaks during a peace forum hosted by Yonhap News Agency and the unification ministry at a hotel in central Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap

The United States will send a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea “in the near future” for the first time in decades, in another show of the U.S. commitment to the defense of its ally, the deputy commander of the U.S. Forces Korea said Thursday.

Lt. Gen. Scott L. Pleus, who doubles as the commander of the U.S. Seventh Air Force, made the remarks at an annual forum hosted by Yonhap News Agency and the unification ministry in Seoul as the allies seek to bolster efforts to deter North Korea’s evolving military threats.

“In the near future, you can expect another show of the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence by a port visit by the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine,” he said, without specifying the timing of its visit.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.