Tag: nuclear weapons

I don’t know how much more blunt the Kim regime can be that it has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons:

Lately North Korea has been boasting their nuclear arms capabilities a bit more than usual and part of that might be from outside pressure following the Iran nuclear deal.

North Korea’s ambassador to China Ji Jae-ryong made it very clear on Tuesday that the communist country would continue with their developing their arsenal. In fact, any form of dialogue was unwelcome according to him.

“The DPRK (North Korea) is not interested at all in dialogue to discuss its nuclear program,” Ji said at the North Korean Embassy in Beijing according to Yonhap News Agency. “We are a nuclear weapons state both in name and in reality.”

Ji also mentioned during his statement that his country had already completed the development of a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a missile.  [Korea Times]

Like I have said repeatedly before, all the people calling for North Korean nuclear disarmament are wasting their time because they have no intention of giving up their nuclear weapons; why should they?

I guess this means we will no longer see any defenders of the 1994 Agreed Framework considering one of the nation’s top Democrats has now disavowed it:

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday the recent landmark deal on Iran’s nuclear program grew out of “the failure of the North Korea experience.”

Kerry also said that Iran and North Korea are different, defending the Iranian deal during a Senate Foreign Relations committee hearing as Republican senators raised concern the Iranian deal could fall apart like the 1994 nuclear deal with North Korea.

“Iran has also agreed to accept the additional protocol, and the additional protocol is an outgrowth of the failure of the North Korea experience, which put in additional access requirements precisely so that we do know what Iran is doing,” Kerry said.

The 1994 deal with North Korea, known as the Agreed Framework, required North Korea to freeze and ultimately dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for economic and political concessions. But the deal fell apart after the North was found to have been running a secret nuclear program in late 2002.

Kerry stressed that Iran is different from the North.

“Unlike North Korea, that created a nuclear weapon and exploded one and pulled out of the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty), Iran has done none of that,” he said.

The North Korea experience is “what gave birth to the additional protocol” in the Iranian deal, Kerry said.  [Yonhap]

I can still remember the good old days when Democrats claimed the failure of the Agreed Framework was all Bush’s fault.  How times have changed.

The North Koreans have just confirmed what I have been saying they have no intention of giving up their nuclear weapons:

North Korea said Tuesday that it’s not interested in an Iran-type nuclear disarmament deal, saying it won’t abandon its atomic weapons as long as the United States maintains hostile policies toward the country.

The North’s nuclear deterrent is “not a plaything to be put on the negotiating table,” an unidentified Foreign Ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. It was the country’s first official response to the Iran nuclear accord reached earlier this month.  [Associated Press]

You can read more at the link.

This deal with Iran does not mean much for North Korea because they have already gone down this road two times before with two different US presidential administrations and cheated on the deals both times.

The South’s unification minister, Hong Yong-pyo, was blunt in comments Tuesday about what to expect. “Conclusion of Iranian negotiations will not lead to solution of the nuclear problem” in North Korea he told foreign correspondents here. But as the North now represents “the only country … to exercise nuclear power to intimidate the rest of the world…the agreement will at least give some pressure on North Korea.”

It is not known whether negotiators in Vienna discussed or agreed privately to address the broader issue of Tehran’s assistance or cooperation with Pyongyang.

WILL TEHRAN STOP AIDING PYONGYANG?

Analysts like Scott Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations say that how North Korea now responds to the new deal “ultimately will depend on whether US negotiators also have a tacit understanding with Iran to curtail questionable relationships with North Korea in these areas.” If North Korea “loses another customer,” Mr. Snyder believes, “Pyongyang may take notice.”

So far Pyongyang has kept its silence. The North Korean media has yet to report on the historic accord with Iran, much less offer any commentary.

The Iran deal does give Pyongyang something new to worry about, says Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “I bet their gut reaction will be along the lines of, ‘We are more isolated than ever, with even Iran making peace with Washington,’” he says.  [Christian Science Monitor]

You can read the rest, but if anything the Iranians took solace in the fact that the North Koreans were able to cheat on their deals for many years with the US turning a blind eye to their activities due to other pressing concerns in the world at the time.  If the North Koreans feel like they can cut yet another deal and get a lot free goodies for little or nothing in return they would probably do it.  However, I don’t think the Obama administration is going to be as eager to cut a deal with North Korea simply because of their history of cheating on past deals.  As always time will tell.

https://twitter.com/Max_Fisher/status/621019725464739840

I think it depends on what one defines economic development as meaning.  If making enough money to keep the ruling elites in power is the goal of the Kim regime they are doing a good job of that along with developing their nuclear weapons:

The United States and China will use next week’s high-level strategic talks to discuss ways to get North Korea out of the “fantasy” that it can revive its broken economy without having to give up its nuclear program, a senior U.S. diplomat said Thursday.

Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel made the remark during a Foreign Press Center briefing previewing the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) to be held in Washington from Monday through Wednesday, saying Washington and Beijing share the same goal of ending Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

“North Korea harbors the fantasy that it can have its cake and eat it too,” Russel said. “North Korea is hoping to be able to rescue itself from the economic failure of its system through external aid while simultaneously and brazenly carrying forward on its nuclear and missile program. That’s just not going to happen.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but as I have long said there is right now no good reason why the North Koreans should stop their pursuit of nuclear weapons.  Promises of “economic development” only matter if the Kim regime cared about the welfare of all their citizens.  Right now they are doing enough to keep the elites in power by getting enough aid from China and managing their global illicit operations.

I wonder if this means there is some kind of back channel negotiations going on or this could just be simple propaganda BS:

North Korea claimed through its state-controlled media Saturday that the United States has recognized it as a nuclear weapons state, a claim that has never been acknowledged by Washington.

Rodong Sinmun, an official newspaper of the North’s ruling Communist Party of Korea, said in an editorial that the United States is reluctantly moving to accept Pyongyang as a nuclear power.

The editorial, carried by the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), said that the Communist country, in reality, has nuclear weapons, whether other countries recognize it or not.

After carrying out underground nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013, North Korea has openly declared itself as a nuclear weapons state and is now demanding that the U.S. and other countries accept it as a fact.

The United States, South Korea, Japan and other regional players have refused to comply with the North’s demand, saying that their position on the matter won’t change.

North Korea, in that newspaper article, did not say why it thought the U.S. has acknowledged its nuclear status but it has long been demanding that the United States sit with it at the negotiating table to discuss mutual disarmament.  [Yonhap]

If the report is true this just goes to show that when ever the collapse or final showdown with North Korea ever does come, it is going to even deadlier and messier then anyone wants to deal with now; that is why everyone’s foreign policy with North Korea is to just keep pushing the can down the road:

North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability may be larger and advancing more rapidly than either the United States or China had estimated, according to Chinese experts cited in a US news report.

A report by the Wall Street Journal says Chinese specialists on North Korea who met with US officials in February told them “that North Korea may already have 20 warheads, as well as the capability of producing enough weapons-grade uranium to double its arsenal by next year.”

US officials have warned over the past year about the North’s progress in “miniaturizing” its nuclear arsenal to fit atop a missile, as well as its gains in three separate long-range rocket programs. One such rocket is an intercontinental missile designed to carry a payload more than 5,000 miles, theoretically putting it within range of California.

Sigfried Hecker, a Stanford professor who attended the meeting in February, confirmed the contents of the presentation. Pyongyang allowed Mr. Hecker to visit in 2010, when he reported seeing a large uranium-enrichment facility.

“Some eight, nine, or 10 years ago, they had the bomb but not much of a nuclear arsenal,” the Journal quoted Hecker as saying. “I had hoped they wouldn’t go in this direction, but that’s what happened in the past five years.”  [Christian Science Monitor]

You can read the rest at the link.

That is what some people are wondering:

Today, North Korea faces the prospect of another significant food shortage and a purported loss of income from China, its largest trading partner and closest among precious few allies.

But are things so bad right now that Pyongyang will be willing to discuss its nuclear weapons program?

“North Korea says its nuclear program means its life,” said Kang Sung Kyu, professor of North Korea Studies at Korea University in Sejong-shi.

Kang is skeptical that North Korea is serious about negotiations, or that any agreements would stand — a valid concern, given how previous deals have fallen apart as Pyongyang repeatedly reneged on key points in the past.

It’s also unclear what role China might play in North Korea’s decision-making.  (……….)

Paik and Kang remain skeptical that talks at this point would accomplish much; Pyongyang agreed to abandon its nuclear program in 2007 after much negotiation, only to resume testing two years later.

However, it does appear that China and the other members of the “six-party talks,” a group of countries that negotiated several now-tattered accords in the 2000s, are ready to talk to North Korea once again.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry recently posted a photo of Russia’s deputy foreign minister and China’s representative for Korean affairs with the following caption: “The two sides exchanged views on the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and on the restarting of the six-party talks.”

China has not provided details on what those views entail.

South Korea, Japan, the U.S., China and Russia have reached “a certain degree of consensus” on how to restart the talks that fell apart in 2008, said Hwang Joon-kook, South Korea’s ambassador to the talks — again without providing details, according to Reuters.   [Stars & Stripes]

You can read the rest at the link, but supposedly the US government is having talks with North Korea right now in regards to holding talks.  As I have been saying for years now the North Koreans will never give up their nuclear program.  What the North Koreans want in any nuclear talks is to be recognized as a nuclear power like Pakistan has become and with it the dropping of sanctions.  What would the US get out of such a deal?  The North Koreans would probably gives some vague promises of not building more nukes, but the big thing is that they would keep quiet for a few years like they have after past deals so the usual suspects can declare peace in our time and the outgoing administration can leave office without problems from North Korea.  Then later when a new US President takes office the North Koreans will start the cycle of provocations and negotiations all over again and by then North Korea will have a stronger hand with better nukes and missiles to make threats with.

I hope this deal works out, but considering North Korea is one of Iran’s best friends they would be well versed how to maintain a secret nuclear program and then back out of deal by blaming the other side:

Even two of the most skeptical experts on the negotiations — Gary Samore and Olli Heinonen of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and members of a group call United Against Nuclear Iran — said they were impressed with the depth of detail.

Mr. Samore, who was Mr. Obama’s top adviser on weapons of mass destruction in his first term as president, said in an email that there is “much detail to be negotiated but I think it’s enough to be called a political framework.” Just a day ago, that appeared in doubt.

Mr. Heinonen, the former chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said “it appears to be a fairly comprehensive deal with most important parameters.” But he cautioned that “Iran maintains enrichment capacity, which will be beyond its near-term needs.”

According to European officials, roughly 5,000 centrifuges will remain spinning enriched uranium at the main nuclear site at Natanz, about half the number currently running. The giant underground enrichment site at Fordo — which Israeli and some American officials fear is impervious to bombing — will be partly converted to advanced nuclear research and the production of medical isotopes. Foreign scientists will be present. There will be no fissile material present that could be used to make a bomb.

A major reactor at Arak, which officials feared could produce plutonium, would operate on a limited basis that would not provide enough fuel for a bomb.

In return, the European Union and the United States would begin to lift sanctions, as Iran complied. At a news conference after the announcement, Mr. Zarif said that essentially all sanctions would be lifted after the final agreement is signed.  [New York Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but North Korea first started negotiating in regards to their nuclear program back in 1994.  Now 21 years later they have nuclear weapons.  The Iranians if they choose to follow the same path will probably have nuclear weapons even sooner than that.  I think a lot of the decision on whether to covertly build nukes will depend on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the coming years.  Despite the media reports I think Iran wants nuclear weapons more for regime survival than to attack Israel with.  In the coming years if Iran feels like they are getting surrounded by hostile ISIS affiliates and Sunni governments they may then feel compelled to move forward with a covert nuclear weapons program.  This deal will allow them to keep that possibility open in the long term while still complying with the agreement to get sanctions dropped in the near term.