Tag: nuclear weapons

Here is one view on why North Korea hasn’t conducted their long predicted nuclear test:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has yet to press the nuclear button, despite urgent warnings from South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities that the North has completed preparations for another nuclear test.

Diplomatic observers agree that a nuclear test is still imminent. But they believe the delay may be due to pressure from China or because Pyongyang is weighing the possible political repercussions. 

Citing comments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Eighth Workers’ Party Conference in January 2021 that his country will enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities, as well as the 31 missiles launched so far this year and the reconstruction of its nuclear test site, Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, said the reclusive country is prepared for a seventh nuclear test.

However, DeTrani said pressure from China may be behind the delayed nuclear test, because increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula with South Korea and the United States is not in the best interests of Beijing.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but it is believed that Emperor President Xi has too much on his plate right now to deal with increased tensions on the Korean peninsula if a nuclear test was to happen.

I guess we will see if the North Koreans conduct a nuclear test during President Biden’s trip to South Korea. I doubt they will because that would be extremely provocative, however I would not be surprised if they did one shortly after such as during the Memorial Day weekend. However, I would not be surprised if they did a missile test during President Biden’s visit:

Excavation work at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear testing site suggests the regime is gearing up for a seventh nuclear test, according to a U.S.-based think tank.    
   
Beyond Parallel, a North Korea analysis portal operated by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that Pyongyang is making preparations at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province based on satellite images captured on Tuesday.  
   
Photos of Punggye-ri – the only known nuclear testing facility in North Korea – shows “continued activity outside the new portal” for a tunnel leading into an underground test site. Support equipment around the tunnel’s entrance indicates ongoing work inside the tunnel.  
   
Further evidence cited by Beyond Parallel for the possibility of an upcoming test included changes in lumber piles, the renovation of existing buildings, and construction of new buildings in the main administration and support areas in and around the test site, suggesting a continued expansion of the support infrastructure. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

It seems like the Kim regime is rhetorically building up towards a near term nuclear test. With the new ROK President taking office this month and activists restarting propaganda balloon launches into North Korea it seems like almost a certainty a major provocation is coming:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stressed the need to bolster the country’s military power to “preemptively and thoroughly contain” nuclear threats from hostile forces, according to Pyongyang’s state media Saturday.

He met with top military commanders who organized a massive street parade in Pyongyang earlier this week, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

Kim was quoted as calling on his military commanders to maintain the “absolute superiority” of the armed forces and constantly develop in order to “preemptively and thoroughly contain and frustrate all dangerous attempts and threatening moves, including ever-escalating nuclear threats from hostile forces, if necessary.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Yoon Seok-youl may be interested in bringing U.S. tactical nukes back to South Korea, but does the U.S. want to do this? If the U.S. military needs to use nuclear weapons in response to a North Korean nuclear attack it seems a submarine would be just as effective?:

Yoon Seok-youl, the leading opposition presidential contender, said Wednesday he will demand the United States redeploy its tactical nuclear weapons here and have nuclear sharing with South Korea if national security is threatened by North Korea’s nukes and missiles.

Unveiling 11 election pledges on diplomacy and security issues, former Prosecutor-General Yoon said he will make efforts to strengthen the Seoul-Washington alliance to deter the North’s evolving nuclear and missile capabilities.

Yoon of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) said he plans to seek consultation with the U.S. over the process to bring in U.S. nuclear strategic assets, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, when emergency situations occur on the Korean Peninsula.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Doug Bandow writes that it is time for the U.S. to give up its policy of denuclearizing North Korea:

After three decades of insisting that the DPRK can never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, Washington must confront the failure of U.S. policy. American policymakers should consider accepting North Korea as a nuclear state and treating it as a normal country.

It no longer makes sense to talk of preventing the North from developing nuclear weapons. It already has them. There is great uncertainty as to how many nuclear weapons the Kim regime has or could potentially make—around sixty is a common estimate. However, that could be just the start. The Rand Corporation and Asan Institute figure Pyongyang could possess some two hundred by just 2027, a scant six years away. That would give it more nuclear weapons than currently possessed by India, Israel, and Pakistan. (………..)

Most realistic would be a focus on arms control, with the hope of developing a relationship that might lead to denuclearization. Even such a more limited objective would be advanced by developing a broader and more normal relationship. Meaning diplomatic ties—officials contacts are especially important with potentially dangerous adversaries—cultural exchanges, and economic ties.

The National Interest

You can read more at the link, but I agree with Bandow that denuclearization is now a fantasy. What is more realistic is negotiating away North Korea’s ICBM program, capping their number of nuclear weapons, and stopping nuclear proliferation. Without ICBMs their nukes cannot threaten the United States and it is in the US’s interest that North Korea not sell nuclear technology abroad like they have done in the past.

Anyone with any measure of intelligence on defense issues on the Korean peninsula could of told Bob Woodward that a nuclear strike on North Korea is not feasible:

Although Bob Woodward’s latest book, “Rage,” disclosed last month that the Donald Trump administration had reviewed firing scores of nuclear weapons at North Korea in 2017, experts said Wednesday that such an attack would not be an easy option to implement due to various reasons including possible escalation involving other countries.

In the book, based on interviews with Trump, the writer said the United States studied “OPLAN 5027” for regime change in North Korea ― the U.S. response to an attack that could include the use of 80 nuclear weapons. OPLAN 5027 refers to a joint South Korea-U.S. military operation plan to respond to a North Korean invasion.

Experts on Korean Peninsula issues saw a low chance of the plan ever being carried out, because of concerns that a U.S. nuclear strike against Pyongyang could lead to accidental escalation in the region.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link about the issues a nuclear strike on North Korea would cause.

This just confirms what I have been saying for years, the Kim regime is never going to give up their nuclear weapons:

North Korea is believed to have up to 60 nuclear bombs and the world’s third-largest stockpile of chemical weapons totaling up to 5,000 tons, the U.S. Army has said.

The U.S. Department of the Army headquarters made the assessment in its report, titled “North Korean tactics,” which was published last month, saying Pyongyang is unlikely to give up these weapons to ensure the regime’s survival.

“Estimates for North Korean nuclear weapons range from 20-60 bombs, with the capability to produce 6 new devices each year,” the U.S. military said, noting that some reports state that the regime could obtain as many as 100 by the end of this year.

“North Korea sought nuclear weapons because its leaders thought the threat of a nuclear attack would prevent other countries from contemplating a regime change,” according to the report, which also pointed out that leader Kim Jong-un witnessed the case of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and “does not want something similar to happen in North Korea.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

According to analysts this move may be to send a message to North Korea:

The Pentagon confirmed Tuesday it has deployed a new low-yield nuclear warhead on at least one strategic submarine, citing the need to deter potential adversaries, which could include North Korea. 

John Rood, U.S. under secretary of defense for policy, said in a statement that the W76-2 low-yield warhead had been fielded on the U.S. Navy’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). 

The move appeared to be reciprocal, according to Rood, who said it was “to address the conclusion that potential adversaries, like Russia, believe that employment of low-yield nuclear weapons will give them an advantage over the United States and its allies and partners.”  (……)

But Kristensen assessed that despite the focus on deploying the weapon to deter Russia, “it is much more likely that the new low-yield weapon is intended to facilitate first-use of nuclear weapons against North Korea or Iran.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the low yield nukes are supposed to have about a third of the power of the nuclear bombs dropped on Japan during World War II.