Tag: nuclear weapons

I think deep down most South Koreans know this guy is right, but prefer the current fantasy that things will be different this time with Kim Jong-un:

Hong Joon-pyo, the former chief of the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP), has reiterated his opposition to the government’s North Korea policy.

Writing on Facebook on Saturday, the conservative politician, who is visiting the U.S. at the moment, argued that North Korea’s attitude has not changed at all.

He said that in order to seek a breakthrough in the Cold War situation on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and compromise, a change in the other side’s attitude and posture is required.

But Hong insisted that North Korea has not changed at all and is only putting on a show, adding that leading the South Korean public to believe the North has changed could bring about an even bigger catastrophe.

The former LKP chief said that North Korea will never give up its nuclear program. He added that if it did attempt to, leader Kim Jong-un would immediately be purged by his hawkish military.  [KBS World Radio]

The North Koreans have now said more about why they are unhappy about Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang, they want US troops removed from the peninsula before they do anything:

The next line of the more than 1,200-word statement may have captured the central complaint: “The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which is essential for defusing tension and preventing a war,” an unidentified foreign ministry spokesman said.

The statement shows that Kim is willing to test Trump’s patience and not bargain away his arsenal without sufficient security guarantees. The regime’s belief that the weapons are needed to deter a U.S. attack dates back nearly 70 years to the still-unresolved Korean War, and will take more than a handshake to dispel.  (…….)

That’s why the vague 1-1/2 page agreement Kim signed with Trump on June 12 called for establishing a new relationship and a “lasting and stable peace regime.” The pledge to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” was listed third.

Practically, assuaging Kim’s security fears could require risky choices for the U.S. and its North Asian allies, such as rolling back America’s nuclear umbrella or pulling back its troops in South Korea. The desire for a broader security realignment explains why Kim agreed to “denuclearization” and not disarmament.

Trump has already faced criticism for being too quick to make security concessions to Kim, including his unilateral suspension of military exercises with South Korea. The North Korean statement indicated such gestures hadn’t gone far enough, saying the U.S. moves were “highly reversible” and left its military force intact “without scraping even a rifle.”  [Bloomberg]

You can read more at the link, but I am sure the Kim regime cares little about the irony of them complaining about “highly reversible” actions taken by the Trump administration when they have done the same thing.  There is not one thing the Kim regime has done as part of the ongoing nuclear negotiations that cannot be easily reversed if so desired.

With that said remember the North’s nuclear weapons has nothing to do with security guarantees as discussed in the article; the North’s conventional weapons have kept the US and South Korea in check for decades because of the threat to Seoul.  That is why you will not see the North Koreans push their artillery away from the DMZ despite ROK requests to do so.

The North’s nuclear weapons are linked to threatening the United States to get the US president to sign a peace treaty, withdraw troops, and remove the nuclear umbrella over South Korea.   Once this is done, then the next phase of establishing the peace regime can occur which is essentially a confederation of North and South Korea on North Korean terms.

This was an encouraging response from Secretary of State Pompeo to North Korean claims of “gangster demands”:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday his country is making fair demands on North Korea in denuclearization talks, refuting its strongly worded criticism following his latest trip to Pyongyang.

The North openly expressed disappointment over what he put forward during a hourslong bargaining with Kim Yong-chol, a top North Korean official, on Thursday and Friday.

Pompeo presented a “unilateral and gangster-like” demand for “complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization (CVID), the North’s foreign ministry said in a statement issued after his departure.

“If those requests were ‘gangster-like’ then the world is a gangster, because there was a unanimous decision at the U.N. Security Council about what needs to be achieved,” the secretary said in the first U.S. response to the North’s assertion that added to skepticism over future negotiations.

He was speaking at a joint press conference with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts — Kang Kyung-wha and Taro Kono — in Tokyo.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the irony of this is that North Korea is often called the “Sopranos State” and they are ones accusing the US of gangster demands.

Probably the most positive sign in the article is that Pompeo says the sanctions will remain in place:

“Sanctions will remain in place until final, fully verified denuclearization,” Pompeo stressed. “While we are encouraged by the progress of these talks, progress alone does not justify the relaxation of the existing sanctions regime.”

The denuclearization of Korea covers not just nuclear bombs but also missiles, he said, adding North Korean officials also understand that.

On the trustworthiness issue, he said, “There will be a verification connected to the complete denuclearization.”

Like I have always said if the US drops sanctions for little to nothing in return then hit the panic button.  People just need to be patient and let what I think is Kim’s final chance to rejoin the world community to play out.

Here is the latest from the State Department on North Korean denuclearization efforts:

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday declined to specify a deadline for North Korea’s denuclearization ahead of negotiations to be led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later this week.

Pompeo is slated to travel to Pyongyang Thursday to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and flesh out a denuclearization agreement signed by Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump at their historic summit last month.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday that he expects Pompeo to discuss with the North Koreans a plan to dismantle the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in a year.

“I know some individuals have given timelines. We’re not going to provide a timeline for that,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said at a regular press briefing.

“The secretary’s looking forward to having these meetings. A lot of work is left to be done, certainly. We go into this eyes wide open, with a very clear view of these conversations,” she added.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Good luck with this because I am very skeptical this will happen:

President Donald Trump’s national security adviser said Sunday the U.S. has a plan that would lead to the dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in a year.

John Bolton said top U.S. diplomat Mike Pompeo will be discussing that plan with North Korea in the near future. Bolton added that it would be to the North’s advantage to cooperate to see sanctions lifted quickly and aid from South Korea and Japan start to flow.

Bolton’s remarks on CBS’ “Face the Nation” appeared to be the first time the Trump administration had publicly suggested a timeline for North Korea to fulfill the commitment leader Kim Jong Un made at a summit with President Donald Trump last month for the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

As I have been saying the North Koreans want the lifting of sanctions to occur for little to nothing in return.  Clearly Emperor President Xi and Czar President Putin are onboard with this position.  The only thing standing in their way right now is President Trump:

North Korea appears to be seeking a lifting of international sanctions imposed on the country by using its longtime ally, China, as leverage.

North Korea is shifting its focus toward economic development, and for that goal, sanctions relief and economic cooperation with other countries will be essential. While it is creating the atmosphere by offering peace through the inter-Korean and the Washington-Pyongyang summits, it seems the North believes China can speed up the process.

Last week, the Japanese media reported China and Russia submitted a statement to the U.N. Security Council seeking the lifting of sanctions on North Korea.

It was reportedly dismissed due to U.S. opposition, which stated North Korea’s denuclearization would have to make progress first.

“China does not regard lifting the sanctions as an end in itself ― the Security Council should support and cooperate in the current mood of dialogue and efforts toward denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula,” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang said in a press briefing, Friday.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but does anyone think President Trump will eventually fold and allow sanctions relief without any real denuclearization efforts by the Kim regime?

If anyone thought were going to stop all their nuclear programs because of a summit then they have no knowledge of past negotiations with the Kim regime.  Additionally here we go again with intelligence officials leaking classified information to the media:

As President Donald Trump touted a new era of diplomacy with the North Korean regime, a classified intelligence assessment appeared to tell a different story, according to several US intelligence officials.

The assessment revealed that, in recent months, North Korea had upped its production of fuel for nuclear weapons at several secret sites, according to over a dozen intelligence officials cited in an NBC News report published Friday. The officials said they believe North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be trying to conceal the secret facilities from the US.

“Work is ongoing to deceive us on the number of facilities, the number of weapons, the number of missiles,” one senior US intelligence official said to NBC News. “We are watching closely.”

According to five US officials cited by NBC News, the North Korean regime was increasing production of enriched uranium, even as relations with the US improved following the 2018 Winter Olympics. And since the leaders of both countries held a summit in Singapore in mid-June, the Trump administration has already delivered some concessions to the North.  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link, but it only makes sense that the North Koreans are going to rush to increase the amount of fuel and weapons they have to maximize their bargaining position.  Like I have always said I seriously doubt the regime will completely denuclearize.

On a side note, I do find it interesting how the media now is highly critical of North Korean double dealing when during past negotiations many in the media made excuses for North Korean double dealing.

Here is some more interesting imagery analysis from the folks at 38 North:

Commercial satellite imagery from June 21 indicates that improvements to the infrastructure at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center are continuing at a rapid pace. Modifications to the 5 MWe plutonium production reactor’s cooling system appear complete, but a less-than-normal cooling water discharge from the outfall pipe makes a determination of the reactor’s operational status difficult. The status of the Radiochemical Laboratory—used to separate plutonium from spent fuel rods—remains uncertain, although the associated Thermal Plant has likely continued operations, and a small non-industrial building of an unknown purpose has been newly erected near the cooling tower. Construction continues on support facilities throughout other operational areas of Yongbyon, especially at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), where the new engineering office building appears externally complete and a small building similar to the one observed at the Radiochemical Laboratory has been erected.

Continued work at the Yongbyon facility should not be seen as having any relationship to North Korea’s pledge to denuclearize. The North’s nuclear cadre can be expected to proceed with business as usual until specific orders are issued from Pyongyang.  [38 North]

You can read much more and see the imagery analysis at the link.

I would not be surprised if the Kim regime is trying to rush completion of these projects and then try and declare that these facilities are for peaceful nuclear energy use.  The North Koreans could argue that South Korea has nuclear power plants, why can’t they?  This would allow the regime to maintain the ability to quickly process material for nuclear weapons again if they were to agree to give up the nuclear weapons they already have.

By the way, ROK Heads may remember that 38 North was part of the US-Korea Institute that the Moon administration tried to get certain employees of the think tank removed from because of their conservative leanings.  Since USKI would not remove the employees the Korean government cut funding and USKI was shutdown.  The shutdown of the USKI was part of a larger effort by the Moon administration to take control of media in South Korea.  Articles like this one showing continued nuclear upgrades by North Korea despite pledges to denuclearize are the types of articles the Moon administration may have wanted to suppress if they still controlled USKI.  It is good to see that 38 North has continued to publish despite the shutdown of the USKI.

I think we can take this as a good sign that the Trump administration will not drop sanctions prior to North Korea taking irreversible denuclearization measures:

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday extended sanctions on North Korea for a year, citing the “unusual and extraordinary” threat posed by its nuclear weapons program.

The extension comes 10 days after Trump’s historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, during which the North committed to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.

“The existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States,” Trump wrote in a routine notice to Congress.

For this reason, Trump said, six executive orders that were issued under his and past administrations to sanction North Korea for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs must continue in effect beyond June 26.

“Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency with respect to North Korea declared in Executive Order 13466,” he wrote.

The action appears to underscore the Trump administration’s goal of keeping sanctions on North Korea until it takes concrete steps toward denuclearization.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime must have been expecting this considering how muted their reaction has been so far.

President Trump is definitely working hard to sell the public on how successful the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore was in response to his critics:

U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that the world should feel “safer” because North Korea poses no nuclear threat to the world.

“Everybody can feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!” he wrote just after he returned to Washington from a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday.

“Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer,” he added.

Earlier he tweeted several times defending the summit, which critics said lacked specifics and fell short of the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.

“Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing,” Trump tweeted.

“Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!” he added.

In later postings, Trump thanked Kim for taking a “bold” step toward a “bright future” for his people and said that their Tuesday summit helps the world stay a big step away from potential nuclear catastrophe.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but you can read my analysis of the summit at this link.  What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks what the domestic North Korean media puts out about this summit.