Here is some more interesting imagery analysis from the folks at 38 North:
A 2008 image of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear plant before the demolition of a cooling tower. Work continues at the site despite the recent pledges of progress towards denuclearisation. Photograph: KYODO/REUTERS
Commercial satellite imagery from June 21 indicates that improvements to the infrastructure at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center are continuing at a rapid pace. Modifications to the 5 MWe plutonium production reactor’s cooling system appear complete, but a less-than-normal cooling water discharge from the outfall pipe makes a determination of the reactor’s operational status difficult. The status of the Radiochemical Laboratory—used to separate plutonium from spent fuel rods—remains uncertain, although the associated Thermal Plant has likely continued operations, and a small non-industrial building of an unknown purpose has been newly erected near the cooling tower. Construction continues on support facilities throughout other operational areas of Yongbyon, especially at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), where the new engineering office building appears externally complete and a small building similar to the one observed at the Radiochemical Laboratory has been erected.
Continued work at the Yongbyon facility should not be seen as having any relationship to North Korea’s pledge to denuclearize. The North’s nuclear cadre can be expected to proceed with business as usual until specific orders are issued from Pyongyang. [38 North]
You can read much more and see the imagery analysis at the link.
I would not be surprised if the Kim regime is trying to rush completion of these projects and then try and declare that these facilities are for peaceful nuclear energy use. The North Koreans could argue that South Korea has nuclear power plants, why can’t they? This would allow the regime to maintain the ability to quickly process material for nuclear weapons again if they were to agree to give up the nuclear weapons they already have.
By the way, ROK Heads may remember that 38 North was part of the US-Korea Institute that the Moon administration tried to get certain employees of the think tank removed from because of their conservative leanings. Since USKI would not remove the employees the Korean government cut funding and USKI was shutdown. The shutdown of the USKI was part of a larger effort by the Moon administration to take control of media in South Korea. Articles like this one showing continued nuclear upgrades by North Korea despite pledges to denuclearize are the types of articles the Moon administration may have wanted to suppress if they still controlled USKI. It is good to see that 38 North has continued to publish despite the shutdown of the USKI.
I think we can take this as a good sign that the Trump administration will not drop sanctions prior to North Korea taking irreversible denuclearization measures:
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday extended sanctions on North Korea for a year, citing the “unusual and extraordinary” threat posed by its nuclear weapons program.
The extension comes 10 days after Trump’s historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, during which the North committed to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.
“The existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States,” Trump wrote in a routine notice to Congress.
For this reason, Trump said, six executive orders that were issued under his and past administrations to sanction North Korea for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs must continue in effect beyond June 26.
“Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency with respect to North Korea declared in Executive Order 13466,” he wrote.
The action appears to underscore the Trump administration’s goal of keeping sanctions on North Korea until it takes concrete steps toward denuclearization. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime must have been expecting this considering how muted their reaction has been so far.
President Trump is definitely working hard to sell the public on how successful the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore was in response to his critics:
U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that the world should feel “safer” because North Korea poses no nuclear threat to the world.
“Everybody can feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!” he wrote just after he returned to Washington from a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on Tuesday.
“Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer,” he added.
Earlier he tweeted several times defending the summit, which critics said lacked specifics and fell short of the U.S. goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.
“Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing,” Trump tweeted.
“Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!” he added.
In later postings, Trump thanked Kim for taking a “bold” step toward a “bright future” for his people and said that their Tuesday summit helps the world stay a big step away from potential nuclear catastrophe. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but you can read my analysis of the summit at this link. What will be interesting to see in the coming weeks what the domestic North Korean media puts out about this summit.
I would think that North Korea would be jubilant if a deal was agreed to with President Trump that leaves them with a Pakistan like nuclear arsenal:
So are there any models of “rogue” regimes with nuclear programs that might appeal to North Korea? The answer is yes. But, unfortunately, it’s a state that kept its nuclear deterrent intact: Pakistan. If Pyongyang is weighing up two possible futures—Libya vs. Pakistan—it’s not much of a choice.
Pakistan began to seriously pursue nuclear weapons in the 1970s, motivated by a desire to deter its more powerful rival India, as well as match India’s nuclear capability. The Pakistani politician Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who later became prime minister, claimed, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves—even go hungry—but we will get one of our own.” In 1998, on a clear and bright day in the Chagai district, Pakistan carried out a series of nuclear tests. Pakistan’s chief scientific officer said “All praise be to Allah” and pushed the button, causing the mountain to shake in a vast explosion.
In 2016, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientistsestimated that Pakistan had 130 to 140 warheads and predicted that it would nearly double its arsenal by 2025. Islamabad could deliver nuclear weapons by medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, F-16 fighters, and tactical systems for short-range use on the battlefield. [The Atlantic]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump has said that he wants North Korea to follow the South Korea model of using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. So the Pakistan model is likely off the table. However, if the Pakistan model is being considered, from the US perspective leaving North Korea with a short range nuclear arsenal is in the US’s interest since these missiles cannot target the US mainland, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam.
However, the Pakistan model would not solve the issue of proliferation. Strict inspections would be needed to ensure nuclear technology is not being proliferated. What kind of inspections will the Kim regime agree to? The other major issue with the Pakistan model is would the North Koreans agree to give up medium range missiles that could target Japan? I just don’t see the President Trump agreeing to any deal that will allow the North Koreans to keep nuclear weapons to target Japan with, not only because they are a US ally, but because of the multiple US military bases in Japan.
The final issue I foresee is trying to get a Pakistan model deal passed through the Senate as a binding treaty. I don’t think President Trump could get enough support of such a deal in the Senate especially in a Congressional election year.
The dismantling of the nuclear test site in North Korea is not a significant measure because it is easily reversible. The Kim regime at a time of their choosing can easily go and drill more shafts into another mountain if they want to do more nuclear testing. This is just another example of how the Kim regime tries to give up little to nothing in return for aid and the dropping of sanctions:
North Korea on Sunday stressed the importance of its dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site this week and called it a “significant measure” amid reports the North has disregarded South Korea’s roster of journalists planning to cover the dismantlement.
The decommissioning of the site is “a very meaningful and significant measure” undertaken voluntarily by the North to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula based on the spirit of an agreement reached at a historic inter-Korean summit, North Korea’s propaganda website DPRK Today said.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name. The leaders of the two Koreas met on April 27 at the truce village of Panmujom on the inter-Korean border.
DPRK Today referred to the May 12 announcement by the North’s foreign ministry that it will hold a ceremony for the dismantling of the nuclear test site between Wednesday and Friday and invite journalists from China, Russia, the United States, Britain and the South to cover it.
On Saturday, another North Korean propaganda website, Uriminzokkiri, carried a commentary in which the North said it does not give the slightest consideration to “a mental patient’s grumble” in the South. “The international community as well as the United States and South Korea is giving a great deal of support to the dismantlement,” it said.
In the commentaries carried by the two propaganda websites, the North lambasted conservative forces in the South, including the main opposition Liberty Korea Party, for underestimating the planned closure of the site. Pyongyang apparently aims to stress the importance of the dismantlement by raising the issue again.
South Korea’s unification ministry handling inter-Korean affairs said Friday the North had not responded to the list of South Korean journalists chosen to attend the ceremony. [Yonhap]
The pre-summit gamesmanship has already started by the North Koreans cancelling high level talks with the South Koreans yesterday and threatening to cancel the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore:
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon enters his office building in Seoul, Wednesday, after North Korea cancelled high-level inter-Korean talks unilaterally. / Yonhap
Political analysts presume North Korea’s abrupt cancellation of high-level inter-Korean talks and threats to reconsider the Washington-Pyongyang summit are aimed at taking the lead ahead of talks over its denuclearization.
Most predict the North is unlikely to spoil the current mood for dialogue but is trying to strengthen its bargaining power before negotiations and send a warning ― to the U.S., rather than to South Korea ― not to underestimate the country.
About 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Pyongyang notified Seoul that it had cancelled the high-level talks, which were to take place in less than 10 hours, citing the ongoing South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, which it sees as a rehearsal of war.
Later in the day, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan also said in a statement the country would reconsider the summit between its leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, slated for June 12, if the U.S. forces the North to unilaterally give up nuclear weapons.
Experts say the exercises may not be the true reason for the North canceling talks, considering that the drills started May 11 and the North suggested the meeting four days later. Kim Jong-un also earlier told South Korean envoys that he understood the allies’ joint military drills.
“With the drills as a pretext, Pyongyang is indirectly expressing discontent at the recent hard-line stances from Washington, such as moving the North’s nuclear weapons to the U.S., removing biochemical weapons and raising an issue of human rights abuse,” said Shin Beom-chul, senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “The North is making use of the high-level talks as a chance (to express its discomfort).”
Indeed, Kim Kye-gwan said American officials’ remarks, such as “denuclearization first and reward later” and “complete abandonment of nuclear, missile and biochemical weapons,” are “thoughtless words that provoke its counterpart.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but what I suspect is happening is that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Kim Jong-un what the US expects of the regime from the summit during his recent trip to North Korea, but in the US media other things are being said that were not discussed previously. People bringing up that human rights should be included in the summit is an especially sensitive topic in North Korea. Threatening to cancel the summit sends a message to the Trump administration that these topics will not be discussed at the summit.
Unless something drastic happens I would be highly surprised if this summit does not happen because the Kim regime has too much to lose. South Korea’s Moon administration at least needs the Kim regime to pretend to denuclearize to justify the massive aid package they have planned to give to Kim Jong-un. They can’t attempt a denuclearization facade if they don’t even show up to the summit.
