Tag: Pakistan

North Korea Seeks to Be As Denuclearized as Pakistan

| September 21, 2018

I think this article is very accurate in describing the Kim regime as wanting to be as denuclearized as Pakistan:

For seven years, Kim Jong-un has pursued an in-your-face strategy for building his nuclear arsenal: detonating blasts underground and firing missiles into the sky, all to send the message that his country’s nuclear buildup is irreversible.

Now he appears to be changing his approach, current and former American intelligence officials say, tailoring it to his reading of the man he met for a few hours three months ago in Singapore: President Trump.

North Korea is making nuclear fuel and building weapons as actively as ever, the publicly available evidence suggests. But he now appears to be borrowing a page from Israel, Pakistan and India: He is keeping quiet about it, conducting no public nuclear demonstrations and creating no crises, allowing Mr. Trump to portray a denuclearization effort as on track.  (……..)

Still, nuclear production continues unabated, satellite photographs and other evidence suggest. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not persuaded the North Koreans to turn over an inventory of their major nuclear facilities and materials, much less declare how many weapons they possess. While Mr. Kim has blown up entrances to a nuclear test site and appeared to start dismantling a test stand for missile engines, he has not allowed in any inspectors to determine whether the actions were simply for show.  (………..)

Mr. Kim’s strategy now appears to be simple: Mimic Pakistan, which conducted a major nuclear test in 1998 and deflected demands for years that it give up its weapons. Pakistan has largely succeeded. It has a substantial arsenal, and when Mr. Pompeo visited Islamabad recently, there was little public discussion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.  [New York Times]

You can read more at the link, but I have been saying this repeatedly that the Kim regime wants “Pretend Denuclearization” and not real denuclearization.  Pretend denuclearization allows them to keep their nukes like Pakistan in return for a peace treaty ending the Korean War and having sanctions dropped.  It seems foolish that anyone would agree to this, but there are many people in the academic class, political class, and US adversaries who think this is a great idea.

In the coming weeks we will see if the Trump administration agrees to this because clearly North Korea is betting that with the US midterm elections coming up that President Trump will want a supposed foreign policy victory.

Is North Korea’s Ultimate Goal to Be Pakistan?

| May 30, 2018

I would think that North Korea would be jubilant if a deal was agreed to with President Trump that leaves them with a Pakistan like nuclear arsenal:

So are there any models of “rogue” regimes with nuclear programs that might appeal to North Korea? The answer is yes. But, unfortunately, it’s a state that kept its nuclear deterrent intact: Pakistan. If Pyongyang is weighing up two possible futures—Libya vs. Pakistan—it’s not much of a choice.

Pakistan began to seriously pursue nuclear weapons in the 1970s, motivated by a desire to deter its more powerful rival India, as well as match India’s nuclear capability. The Pakistani politician Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who later became prime minister, claimed, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves—even go hungry—but we will get one of our own.” In 1998, on a clear and bright day in the Chagai district, Pakistan carried out a series of nuclear tests. Pakistan’s chief scientific officer said “All praise be to Allah” and pushed the button, causing the mountain to shake in a vast explosion.

In 2016, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimated that Pakistan had 130 to 140 warheads and predicted that it would nearly double its arsenal by 2025. Islamabad could deliver nuclear weapons by medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, F-16 fighters, and tactical systems for short-range use on the battlefield.  [The Atlantic]

You can read more at the link, but President Trump has said that he wants North Korea to follow the South Korea model of using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.  So the Pakistan model is likely off the table.  However, if the Pakistan model is being considered, from the US perspective leaving North Korea with a short range nuclear arsenal is in the US’s interest since these missiles  cannot target the US mainland, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam.

However, the Pakistan model would not solve the issue of proliferation.  Strict inspections would be needed to ensure nuclear technology is not being proliferated.  What kind of inspections will the Kim regime agree to?  The other major issue with the Pakistan model is would the North Koreans agree to give up medium range missiles that could target Japan?  I just don’t see the President Trump agreeing to any deal that will allow the North Koreans to keep nuclear weapons to target Japan with, not only because they are a US ally, but because of the multiple US military bases in Japan.

The final issue I foresee is trying to get a Pakistan model deal passed through the Senate as a binding treaty.  I don’t think President Trump could get enough support of such a deal in the Senate especially in a Congressional election year.