As I have been saying for some time, if a peace treaty is agreed to with North Korea, the South Korean left will then challenge the relevancy of the US-ROK alliance:
Two progressive civic groups on Sunday called for a review of the character of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in line with the two Koreas’ efforts for reconciliation and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The , and Minbyun-Lawyers for a Democratic Society issued the call, with Seoul and Washington set to hold a third round of negotiations this week on sharing the cost for the upkeep of 28,500 American troops in the South.
“As (the two Koreas) are in the process of implementing the Panmunjom Declaration and establishing a peace regime, the character and size of the USFK, and the scope of its activities should be reviewed,” the two groups said in a joint statement. [Yonhap]
The PSPD and Minbyun are both extreme left wing pro-Pyongyang organization that have long been anti-US. For example PSPD is one of the groups behind the ongoing THAAD protests, blamed the US for Christian missionaries kidnapped by the Taliban, was a member of the Korean Alliance Against the Korea-U.S. FTA that even had one of their own set himself on fire outside one of the FTA meetings in Seoul. PSPD was also one of the lead organizations against the relocation of US forces to Camp Humphreys.
Minbyun on the other hand are basically Kim Jong-un’s personal lawyers in South Korea. They have long been used to legally attack North Korean defectors, one of the groups behind the US beef riots, and have long attacked the USFK relocation plan.
ROK President Moon Jae-in has said that after a peace treaty he wants US forces to stay.
Moon, however, has said that the USFK is a matter of the Seoul-Washington alliance and that it has “nothing to do with” a peace treaty that the two Koreas agreed to pursue to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended only with a truce.
Remember though that Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces. That is why I think it is a possibility that the Moon administration may publicly say they support USFK, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK such as what Minbyun is proposing:
Regarding the allies’ talks on the cost of American troops here, the civic groups called for more transparency in spending procedures, more parliamentary oversight and a ban on the use of money for supporting the deployment of U.S. strategic assets.
Possibly the future of USFK could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju. President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence. Minbyun and PSPD’s current efforts could just be the start of a larger strategy to make life more difficult for USFK if a peace treaty is signed. All the while expect the Moon administration to say how much they support USFK.